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00:00Go again, tracking the risks for severe weather on America's Morning Headquarters.
00:03I'm Jen Carfagno, alongside Alex Wallace and Dr. Greg Postel.
00:06It is the season for stormy conditions to march across the middle of the country.
00:11It is, and I think we're going to see a few days' worth of severe weather in some of the
00:16same locations repeatedly.
00:17So it's an active period in the middle part of the country.
00:19It really is.
00:20Now, you may notice some changes to the intensity here of the maps that we use to alert you to
00:25some of these threat areas that are ahead.
00:27In fact, the Storm Prediction Center, they've started issuing sort of different advisories here in the sort of before these
00:35thunderstorms get going here.
00:36Just give folks the opportunity to know how serious they could potentially be.
00:40Yeah, and it's, I think, good for the general public overall.
00:44Yeah, and for us as well.
00:45And for us.
00:46Kind of fine-tune the communication.
00:49We heard more from SPC's Evan Bentley on Weather Underground or Weather Unfiltered last night.
00:57I think it's a really good idea.
00:59We have the skill.
01:00They have the skill now to do that, where some days, maybe you don't expect a whole lot of storm
01:04coverage, but if they happen, they can be really intense.
01:08Conversely, you can have, you know, for example, days where you have a whole lot of storms, but not many
01:14of them will be intense.
01:16So it's nice to sort that out.
01:18It's information that was already out there, but this is a much better way at kind of discerning it and
01:23laying it out to both us and the general public for communications.
01:28Absolutely.
01:29Be able to visually kind of see it.
01:31Yeah.
01:32Well, you know, we've got some severe weather chances today, tomorrow, Friday.
01:37Let's have a look at them.
01:38And some of the locations they're going to be seeing the severe weather are in the middle part of the
01:42country.
01:43And let's take a look at Dallas right now.
01:44Right now, we're sitting at 73 degrees.
01:46This is going to start to the day for some Indiana Hoosiers.
01:49And traveling through the state capitol this morning will look a little like this.
01:54Pretty foggy out there.
01:55A little rainy, too.
01:56But, gosh, this fog is really intense with some very low visibility.
01:59So as the day progresses, as Greg talked about, we're going to see changes.
02:03And then the chance for thunderstorms actually becomes greater.
02:06It could come knocking on your door in Indianapolis by tonight.
02:10So let's talk about the changes for today and the forecast and where we've been as well.
02:14I mean, we've had some rain out there.
02:16This is the past 24 hours.
02:17It explains a little bit why it's so foggy this morning.
02:20There's a lot of moisture in the atmosphere.
02:22So we have saturation, 45-degree temperature, 45-degree dew point.
02:27And we've got more to come.
02:29Rainfall could be quite heavy, one or two inches of rain in the forecast through the rest of the week.
02:34That actually goes into Sunday.
02:36Right now, let's check the radar.
02:38We've got the St. Louis area into south of there with thunderstorms on the move.
02:42Over the next few hours, let's track these cells, some of which could be on the stronger side.
02:47We've already had warnings out there this morning.
02:49And we've got, of course, the risk of lightning as well.
02:52But then come tonight, and it's due with the overnight, we've got more thunderstorms coming
02:56on through.
02:57Not a lot of breaks in between this activity out there.
03:00So you're in a pretty soggy period with another one to two inches of rain, maybe even two or
03:05three, counting it up all the way into Sunday here in and around the St. Louis area.
03:09All right.
03:10So then we jump over into central Illinois, where here, excuse me, back to Missouri, where
03:14in Springfield, we've got rainfall that's already heavy at times out there in the area.
03:18That continues.
03:19And you notice the track of the thunderstorms moving over the same areas.
03:24That's going to help it add up.
03:25That's how we get into this two or maybe even three inches of rain south of here in the forecast,
03:30again, through Sunday.
03:31But you're in multiple chances of it all the way through then.
03:33Then we jump down into Oklahoma and Arkansas.
03:37And yes, there are thunderstorms out there this morning.
03:40But as we get through the day, watching storms roll into spots like Fort Smith,
03:44the risk is there for some severe weather.
03:46We could see strong, damaging winds.
03:47We could see hail, some of the biggest threats that we will see in storms today, and big rain.
03:52This is a spot that really gets into a lot of repeated rounds of rain.
03:55So three or four inches of rain in the forecast, Greg.
03:59Jan, you're so right.
03:59I think the heavy rain threat is going to be a significant...
04:01...flash flooding, really risks of all kinds of severe weather.
04:04And we will look at, of course, areas that could have that in not just in parts of the Ohio
04:10Valley, but into the Northeast as well.
04:12All right, now, heavy rain that we had here over portions of Illinois, Indiana already.
04:18This is just the past 24 hours.
04:19We've had a lot of storm reports out there, and you can see all of that across this area.
04:24A couple of thunderstorms right now in south-central Indiana with the threat of some hail,
04:28actually watching those.
04:29And got to point this out.
04:30You might be getting this scrolling on your screen, or maybe your phone went off.
04:35It is a drill.
04:36There's a tornado drill in eastern Kentucky.
04:38So it's not one big giant tornado warning.
04:41Don't worry about that.
04:41But it is a drill.
04:42Severe weather preparedness week and awareness week here.
04:45So, again, that area under a drill right now for a tornado.
04:48But we do have thunderstorms.
04:49So I want to make sure that we are keeping you aware of the risks out there.
04:53Heavy rain will be another one, in addition to the hail or damaging wind risk that we have
04:57in some spots out there on repeat.
04:59Here's your forecast.
05:01Getting in through the afternoon tomorrow, rain, and then rain spreading into the Northeast.
05:05And this becomes a pretty sloppy situation because we do run into some of the wintry weather
05:09mixed in with it.
05:10Each progressive storm gets a little farther north with that wintry line of active weather.
05:15And we see that all the way into New England by the end of the week.
05:19I saw on the edges of the maps you showed there is some blue.
05:22There is some colder air out there.
05:23One of the only parts of the country getting a brief shot of the cold is here in the west.
05:27And boy, will they take it.
05:29From Yellowstone to Colorado, any snow that falls is a sight for sore eyes after the winter
05:36that wasn't.
05:36I mean, look at these scenes.
05:38Not nearly as snowy as we would like.
05:41On March and April, our snowy months for this part of the country, in fact, are snowiest.
05:45So it's, um, uh, the winter's not lost yet.
05:49Let's see where we're at right now.
05:50I mean, there's a lot of down arrows here.
05:52Most actually running below average when it comes to snowfall all across the Mountain
05:56West, even across the Northern High Plains, we are running below average when it comes
06:01to snowfall.
06:02So season to date in Denver, it's been an interesting one here.
06:06We've had 13.4, the lowest season to date since 1882.
06:10Last month was only the second snowless February on record.
06:14And it was our second warmest on record.
06:17Denver, for the most part, you've been showing up in all of our warm weather segments because
06:21we've been talking about the number of 50 degree and 60 degree and 70 degree days that
06:25you've had so far this season.
06:26But now the jet stream has flipped and you've got a trough across the West, and that is going
06:30to lead to some cooler temperatures running all the way down to the 40s for highs.
06:35How about 30s for highs in spots like Casper, Wyoming and Denver, Friday, only 37 after
06:40this warm stretch that you've had.
06:42What a difference coming your way.
06:44So with the system that comes in with the trough in place and these disturbances that roll
06:48through it, we do get some precip chances and because it's cold enough, we'll get snow
06:52out there watching Friday morning.
06:54That snow from the mountains of Wyoming down through Colorado, the Wasatch as well.
06:58We get snow chances.
07:00Denver, we get some snow chances as we get into your Friday as well.
07:04Is this going to be a blockbuster storm?
07:06Doesn't seem like it's that kind of setup, but you do at least get some snow chances coming
07:09in.
07:09It could mean for some tough travel Friday into Friday night, but Saturday is looking drier.
07:14And then just a quick look at those storm totals.
07:16It could be adding up five to eight inches in a number of spots, and Denver will look
07:19for those bigger totals back into the mountains.
07:22Alex.
07:23Well, you haven't had to deal with this, but let's tackle what's in front of us first,
07:25and that is today's outlook.
07:27And you can see it's a large zone that stretches from Texas all the way up through parts of
07:30the Ohio River Valley.
07:31We've had a few thunderstorms this morning.
07:33So far, either damaging winds or even some hail has been a possibility, but we'll take you
07:38through today and show you what to expect.
07:40I mean, the instability right now is actually a little further south.
07:43What we have going on are elevated thunderstorms.
07:46That's why hail actually is the main risk in Indiana.
07:48Indeed.
07:49But you're starting to see that trying to build its way northbound.
07:51You head off towards the east, and you see this rather large warning that's in place
07:56here.
07:56And you may be thinking, oh, my goodness, this is a huge tornado warning.
07:59Well, it's actually a drill, which has just expired here, a tornado drill, essentially.
08:03Yeah.
08:04But just to explain that here, it's Severe Weather Awareness Week.
08:06So they are working through making sure that you know what the products look like and that
08:11everyone can get them.
08:11Meanwhile, we have some actual warnings, and these are severe thunderstorm warnings in parts
08:15of Davies and Knox County.
08:17This goes until 1045 hail, the main risk, and maybe winds at like 50 miles per hour.
08:22Yeah.
08:22Watch that.
08:23Getting ready to essentially move over 69, and then just to the north and east of that
08:26storm, another storm there just to the south of the Odon area until about 1045 for us.
08:32Again, hail, main threat for you there.
08:34That's getting ready to move over 231, Route 231.
08:38OK, so watching the thunderstorms at the moment, and there'll be more like that.
08:42I mean, we have a lot with lightning out there already today, and there is that risk of hail
08:45with these storms, maybe over an inch in size.
08:48That could do some damage.
08:49Absolutely, indeed.
08:50Let me zoom back out and head back towards the south and show you what's going on with
08:53some of the other reports that have been coming in.
08:55Again, hail sizes have been kind of in that quarter to maybe half dollar size range for
09:00the most part here from some of these reports coming across the board.
09:03OK, so let's take you through the next few hours, and the thunderstorms that we have ongoing
09:07right now, they're going to continue to kind of progress, moving over the same areas.
09:11But watch some of these new storms developing.
09:13Yeah, a little bit later on this afternoon, early evening, more storms coming across portions
09:17of Oklahoma, Texas, and then building and pushing towards the north and east.
09:20So the threat here exists and continues with a few rounds, and so we've got to deal with
09:24the severe threat, plus heavy rain coming from these storms, and of course that could
09:28lead to some flash flooding.
09:29And then in the coming days, we have a similar setup, where the atmosphere kind of pulls
09:33together even more ingredients for the risk of severe.
09:36That's right, and there's kind of a separate set of ingredients threatening this eagle nest.
09:41Developers have been pushing to build on the lakefront here and put in dozens of homes
09:45and a marina.
09:47Friends of Big Bear Valley, who host the live cameras, have been fighting this development
09:51for 25 years.
09:52And now the clock is ticking to raise the $10 million needed to buy the 63 acres of lakefront
09:58property outright to protect the eagles and all the other endangered animals who call
10:02this part of Big Bear Valley home.
10:05So for more, we're going to bring in Jenny Voissard, media manager with Friends of Big
10:09Bear Valley.
10:10Thanks for being with us.
10:11Now, this project, developers would break ground on in less than a mile from the nest.
10:17So what could happen to the eagles if this development goes through?
10:21Well, we've got working to raise that money.
10:24It's a lot of money here.
10:25And what's the plan if you don't get the full amount that's needed?
10:29Well, we have raised $725,000.
10:32You guys have done some quick, fast, hard work.
10:35Now, just for the eagles themselves, it's been a tumultuous season for Eagle Cam fans,
10:39with the first pair of eggs being lost to ravens.
10:42But now with two eggs in the nest, there's hope for another pair of eaglets.
10:46Is it common for eagles to lay eggs multiple times in one season?
10:51It's rare.
10:52Cool.
10:52It really is.
10:54Now, we know last year's eaglets, they became wildly popular, right?
10:57Have you found that the sunny and gizmo effect is really helping raise some of the money that's
11:01needed to buy Moon Camp?
11:04Together, you meet people everywhere.
11:05And, of course, they watch the camera.
11:08How long can we expect to wait until Pip Watch when the first eggs crack?
11:13Well, it'll be around...
11:15I know.
11:15This is one of our favorite camps.
11:17So, we certainly appreciate you, Jenny.
11:19We start there with the Friends of Big Bear Valley.
11:21Thanks so much for joining the show.
11:22We appreciate it.
11:23And certainly good luck to raising all the funds that are necessary to hopefully save the
11:28habitat there.
11:29Yeah.
11:29We're glad we could share that here today.
11:31Now, of course, we look at this camera to see the eagles, but we also look at it to see
11:35the weather.
11:35And we've got some high winds in the forecast.
11:37Wet dress rehearsal or not.
11:39So, we will...
11:39We'll find it.
11:40I imagine they will.
11:41I can't imagine they won't, right?
11:42Just to make sure you just get it right.
11:47Get it right.
11:47All right.
11:47Let's get this forecast right for you.
11:49As we march our way through the coming days, unfortunately, we've got some rain to deal
11:52with here.
11:53And some of that rain may be enough that could lead to some flooding in a few spots here
11:56over the next few days.
11:57Yeah, it's been an interesting water vapor image to watch.
12:01You can see kind of that connection of moisture coming all the way up.
12:04Actually, you can trace it all the way back into the Pacific.
12:06But we're going to tap into more gulf moisture in the coming days.
12:09And that's going to really add to the amount of available, precipitable water.
12:13Here you go.
12:14And disturbances.
12:15They'll take advantage of that.
12:16First one coming today.
12:17That'll work its way to the north and east.
12:19The next one comes right on its heels, right behind that, kind of moving over to the same
12:22locations.
12:23Good news is some of these spots need the rain.
12:25But, Jen, as we always know, you don't want too much too quickly.
12:27Right.
12:28I mean, we've got a lot of drought.
12:28Some of the worst drought that we have in the whole country, the exceptional drought,
12:31is in Arkansas.
12:32And you've got a lot of rain coming your way in the forecast.
12:35It began right there.
12:36You saw that kind of starting to add up.
12:38We could end up with a widespread one to two or even three to five inches of rain.
12:42So we need it.
12:43We'll take it.
12:44But just be prepared for maybe a few local spots to see some flooding in a few local spots.
12:49Now, look at the dew points.
12:50They're starting to climb here.
12:51Sixties here across Little Rock.
12:53And some of that's helping to fuel some of these showers as well as thunderstorms coming out of
12:56Oklahoma and pushing across Missouri and northwest parts of Arkansas.
13:00That's that gulf moisture.
13:00It's on the way in.
13:02And it's feeding into today's thunderstorms that we're beginning with.
13:05But there will be more.
13:06And, again, just with days and days of southerly flow like this at the low levels,
13:11you keep adding in the moisture.
13:12Yeah, you do.
13:13So this is Thursday morning now.
13:14Storms across the Ohio Valley.
13:16That continues here as we work our way through the afternoon hours.
13:18Get a bit of a break back towards the west until we get to Friday.
13:21Early Friday, another batch of storms developing there in the plains.
13:24You notice this whole time, though, we haven't changed the wind direction.
13:27Right.
13:27So it's going to get kind of soupy out there.
13:30But be ready for that risk of heavy rainfall.
13:32When there's a watch, it means be prepared.
13:34Understand that you might be dealing with some flooding and know where the spots could
13:37that where that could take place.
13:39But when you get under a flash flood warning, it means flooding is either imminent or occurring.
13:43Well, some sporting action taking.
13:54Well, some of the things that we want to do whenever we want to do.