00:00Let's give you the latest on Ukraine, where Russia's war is now into its fifth year and a development that
00:05might give Vladimir Zelensky some vital leverage over the United States and its Gulf allies.
00:11First, let's give you the latest on the ground in Ukraine this Thursday.
00:14A prisoner swap has taken place. 200 from each side have changed camps.
00:19It's the first part of a deal that should see up to 500 of each side sent home.
00:25The two sides agreed to the exchange during talks in Geneva last month, one of the few areas of cooperation
00:30between the warring countries.
00:33In Kherson, Ukrainian firefighters tackling the aftermath of a Russian strike.
00:40Fragments of explosives dropped from the drone that was used to carry out this attack were found nearby.
00:47This Thursday, Russia says it's captured a village in the Donbass called Yarova.
00:51This is in the east of the Donbass. At this stage, we can't independently verify Russia's claims.
00:57And the Ukrainian president, Vladimir Zelensky, says the United States and its allies in the Middle East are seeking Ukraine's
01:03expertise in countering Iran's Shahid drones.
01:07Ukraine has been attacked by Shahid drones supplied by Iran to Russia almost every night since the full-scale invasion
01:14was launched in February 2022.
01:18Zelensky said this Thursday that the Druzhba pipeline that pumps Russian oil into Europe and was damaged by Russian attacks
01:24may only be operational after another four to six weeks.
01:28That, of course, has made the likes of Viktor Orban of Hungary extremely angry.
01:32And one of the reasons why he's trying to block the 90 billion euro aid deal that the EU has
01:38put together to help Ukraine's existential fight.
01:42Let's get the analysis and bring in Peter Zalmayev. Peter, of course, is director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative.
01:47He's joining us live from Kiev. As always, Peter, great to have you with us.
01:51It seems ironic, doesn't it, that the United States is now seeking Ukraine's help in combating drones,
01:58given, of course, how Trump has withdrawn 99 percent of any aid to Ukraine.
02:04Indeed, it's an ironic twist of fate.
02:07And there's a bittersweet moment here that Ukrainians, of course, experienced when the Iranian Ayatollah was taken out of the
02:18game.
02:18Of course, the implications of this are yet to be known.
02:21And there are many different factors that might actually complicate our situation.
02:27But just the immediate moment of that, you know, recalling how Russia, in fact, started bombarding and attacking civilians in
02:37Ukraine in earnest with the help, precisely, of Iranian drones.
02:42Whether, once again, taking the whole regime out of this game will be instrumental to Ukraine is another thing,
02:48because Russia is now producing these drones by the license that they have from the Iranians.
02:54They've learned to do it on their own. But it's a simple fact that, you know, the first massive casualties
03:01in this war were suffered with the active help by the Iranian regime.
03:06And that also includes the ballistic missiles, Fateh and Zulfugar.
03:10So you cannot blame Ukrainians for just rejoicing at the news, at least initially.
03:15So perhaps Vladimir Zelensky now having the cards, to use Trump's phrase of February the 28th last year,
03:21when he went about and basically verbally attacked Zelensky in the White House, the situation perhaps changing.
03:28And what might be interesting, Peter, I suppose, is how the Gulf state allies of the United States react,
03:33because they are the ones who are really now under most attack from these drones.
03:38Indeed. And that could be a perfect storm for the world economy.
03:42We're already seeing the contours of it. And it's, of course, a threat to Donald Trump.
03:47We all know that elections in America, with only slight exaggeration, are settled at the pump, so to speak.
03:55Price of gas, as they say in America, is very important.
03:59And Ukraine has the cards not only in that it has learned the ways of this 21st century warfare with
04:09asymmetrical warfare,
04:10with drones like no one else, only Russia is the only other player.
04:14We are the two most advanced, militarily speaking, nations.
04:19America cannot afford to keep shooting down these relatively inexpensive drones with missiles that may be worth millions of dollars.
04:28So that, plus the showdown that German Chancellor Mertz had in Washington,
04:34where he actually said, you want our moral, logistical, political support of your operation against Iran,
04:41you really need to meet us halfway when it comes to Ukraine.
04:46Can you give us, without giving away any states, because I wouldn't expect you to do that, Peter,
04:51can you give us some insight into how Ukraine has managed to construct this expertise in drone technology?
04:59Obviously, it's about necessity. Ukraine needed to do that.
05:02But can you give us any insight into sort of what's behind it all, how it's happened, and how far
05:07it goes?
05:09It's a very elegant, good modern term of crowdsourcing, of course.
05:16From the very beginning of this war, why it has really captured the world's imagination.
05:21It was a much smaller nation fighting for the most romantic of ideals, just the survival of the nation,
05:35the indomitable spirit and all of these things.
05:39And the only way to stay in the game has been to do it asymmetrically, to involve players in the
05:48civil society,
05:49but also just individuals who are good with their hands to start this MacGyvering process of making inexpensive flying objects
05:59that would be able to, if not take on the Russian army, at least to slow down significantly its advance.
06:07This is a very good example of why a democracy in the long run would prevail against an autocracy,
06:15even though, as we've seen over the last four years, autocracies and dictatorships do have,
06:22at least initially, an advantage when it comes to decisions made in wartime.
06:27And our allies have demonstrated, unfortunately, that a democracy in a confederate sort of format like the European Union
06:38can sometimes be an impediment to quick and effective decisions.
06:43Let's remind everybody, Peter, that whilst we're talking about these matters,
06:46you're expecting another night of attacks from Russia.
06:49The technology that we're talking about perhaps in some way transferring,
06:53or the expertise transferring to those Gulf states to protect them and, of course, to help the United States to
06:58fight these drones,
06:59you're putting it to work every night in Ukraine to fend off the drones being sent by Russia.
07:04Let's remind people of that.
07:06Can we talk about the Druzhba oil pipeline, which is another issue which is perhaps getting in the way,
07:12in some way, of Ukraine getting this 90 billion euro aid deal from the EU?
07:18Viktor Orban, unhappy that the oil isn't coming through, that he wants to buy from Russia.
07:22He, of course, is Putin's great friend.
07:24That's Hungary's prime minister.
07:26Slovakia's prime minister, Robert Ficco, as well, joining in the same song in terms of saying this is wrong.
07:31Ukraine can do this quicker.
07:33What is your take on that situation?
07:35Because clearly there is an issue there.
07:36Vladimir Zlensky said it could take a number of weeks, perhaps months, before it's open.
07:41Well, these countries have to be weaned of their dependence on this cheap Russian heroin-type substance to which you
07:54get addicted, cheap gas.
07:55This is what we had in Germany under Angela Merkel's rule.
08:02And these countries have not been able to make that break.
08:07It, of course, allows them to win elections.
08:11It gives them some flexibility with the voters.
08:14It's time for them to grow up.
08:16And I think that was part of the conversation that the German chancellor had with Donald Trump,
08:21is that, you know, we have to rein in these two recalcitrant members who sometimes seem to be carrying water
08:28for our nemesis, Moscow.
08:31These funds have to be released.
08:34Of course, you only wonder why they've been allowed to do it so long.
08:39Right now, the answer is with Washington.
08:41Washington has a certain say-so in the matter.
08:44And I think this would mean that compromise that Mr. Mertz was looking when he went to Washington.
08:51You know, call off your dogs, call off Bratislava and Budapest.
08:56Let's give Ukraine the money it needs to continue funding its economy and, once again, continuing to resist the enemy,
09:03which it's been doing quite successfully, despite the fact that we had the worst, hardest winter to date since Ukraine's
09:11independence.
09:12Indeed. I was going to ask you as a final question, but I'll bring it forward.
09:16How are you coping? Because clearly everybody, yourself included, have to cope with the very difficulties,
09:21difficulties not having heating, not having hot water, not having the supplies that everybody here takes for granted.
09:27How are you coping?
09:29Well, I have to be honest, I can't take the mantle of a martyr because at least I'm flexible leaving
09:35the country
09:36and I am able to attend conferences and European capitals, etc., but a lot of Ukrainian men my age are
09:45not able to leave.
09:46They've been in this situation for four years, which progressively gets worse.
09:51And people, of course, update their standards of normal.
09:53People put on very visible displays of defiance, such as a rave on ice, an electronic music one-day festival
10:02that took place on the frozen river in Kiev.
10:06And this was some of the coldest winter on record in the last probably two decades, etc.
10:13And we've weathered this winter. Once again, Vladimir Putin has demonstrably suffered a setback.
10:24Peter Zalmayev, always a pleasure to speak to you, sir. Glad to see you looking so well.
10:28Likewise.
10:28Director of the Eurasia Pinoxia Initiative, frequent guest here on France 24, I am pleased to say.
10:33And good luck to you, sir. Please stay safe.
10:36Peter Zalmayev joining us there live from Kiev. Great to see you, sir. Thank you very much indeed.
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