00:00The latest on the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia.
00:03We understand the political phase is finished.
00:04The focus is now on the military side.
00:06This, of course, is the life and death of the story.
00:09Russia's demanding Ukraine seed.
00:11That's give away 20% of the eastern Donbass region
00:14that Moscow has failed to take by force.
00:17Kiev is not open to this plan.
00:19Emerald Maxwell looks at what each side wants.
00:24The U.S. president has given Ukraine and Russia
00:26until June to find a settlement.
00:29Ahead of their meeting Tuesday,
00:31Donald Trump minimized the challenge ahead.
00:33It's going to be very easy.
00:35I mean, look, so far, Ukraine better come to the table fast.
00:40That's all I'm telling you.
00:42It was a somewhat inauspicious comment,
00:44given that Ukraine has committed to talks,
00:47as President Zelensky reminded.
00:50Soon we will mark a year of Ukraine's most active diplomacy.
00:54We have agreed to all realistic proposals from America,
00:57starting with the proposal for an unconditional and long-term ceasefire.
01:02Russia rejects this, continues assaults at the front
01:06and strikes on our cities and energy infrastructure.
01:10Progress in past negotiations has been scant,
01:13and as Ukrainian and Russian delegations convene in Geneva,
01:17land remains the biggest sticking point.
01:19That is the almost 20% of Ukrainian land that Russia occupies or covets,
01:24including Crimea and parts of the eastern Donbass region
01:27seized before the 2022 invasion,
01:30which Kiev has refused to give up for a host of reasons.
01:33The soil is quite rich in critical mineral,
01:36but also because it's the heart of Ukrainian history
01:39and the strategic positioning.
01:41And last point, but certainly not least,
01:43it's highly unpopular amongst the Ukrainian population.
01:47In this regard, it gives the Ukrainian president
01:49kind of a strong political mandate to stick to the Ukrainian position.
01:54The future of Ukraine and Europe's largest nuclear power plant,
01:58Zaporizhia, which is currently under Russian control,
02:01is another point of friction.
02:03There's also disagreement over the possible role
02:06of Western troops in post-war Ukraine
02:08to deter another invasion,
02:10a Kiev demand that Moscow has rejected.
02:13Russia has said it wants to end the war,
02:16but Kiev insists Moscow's actions,
02:18including its relentless strikes, prove otherwise.
02:21Zelensky has called for more international pressure
02:24on Russia to negotiate.
02:25This as Moscow's wartime economic woes are mounting,
02:28with oil revenues choked by sanctions dropping to a five-year low.
02:35Let's have more on the situation in Ukraine.
02:38Russia's attacks on Ukraine continuing in spite of these peace talks.
02:42Three people have been injured as a result of nighttime drone hits
02:45by Russian forces on the Ukrainian port of Odessa.
02:50Two-member hospitalised.
02:51A woman received assistance on site.
02:54During a Russian attack on the city of Burshtin
02:56in the Ivano-Frankiv region,
02:59centralised heating and hot water supply were disrupted.
03:01This, of course, part of a widespread Russian tactic
03:04to try to disrupt energy supply to homes
03:07at the coldest time of winter in Ukraine.
03:11People very much suffering in that.
03:14Let's get to a deeper analysis and bring in John Luff,
03:17who's head of foreign policy at the new Eurasian Strategy Centre.
03:21John, thanks for being with us here on France 24.
03:22We appreciate your time.
03:24The talks first.
03:25A big divide between the two remains.
03:28Is there any likelihood, for instance,
03:29that Ukraine will agree to give up land?
03:33No, I don't see any immediate likelihood of that happening.
03:37As your report has indicated,
03:39the sides remain very far apart.
03:41And I think there's really a big question here
03:43about whether either Ukraine or Russia at this stage
03:46really wants to bring the war to an end.
03:49There's an impression that both are putting on
03:51a bit of a performance for President Trump
03:53engaging in these talks.
03:55But on both sides,
03:57I don't see any willingness to compromise.
04:00President Trump believes that he can put more pressure,
04:04I think, on Ukraine than he's prepared to put on Russia.
04:07And so the Ukrainians feel vulnerable in this sense,
04:09because there's always a fear that he's going to turn away,
04:12that this window of opportunity, in fact, might close.
04:15Trump could cut off intelligence support again
04:17to the Ukrainian military.
04:20And equally, he could potentially say
04:23he's not going to sell any more weaponry to the Europeans
04:25who are currently supplying the Ukrainians.
04:27I think that's personally a little bit unlikely.
04:29But it's clear that he's becoming impatient
04:31and he's put the Ukrainians on notice
04:34that he expects to get results from these talks.
04:38And there may be, of course, more rounds beyond Geneva.
04:41But he comes across as a man in a hurry
04:43who wants to somehow get this done quickly.
04:46Indeed.
04:46But the fundamental issues are so great
04:49that one can't see them being bridged
04:50certainly at this round of negotiations.
04:53Completely hear what you're saying, John, on that one.
04:55Trump, of course, keen to do business.
04:56That's what he's about.
04:57It's all about transaction, regardless of the moral stance
05:00that if you stand back and look at it,
05:02you can apply to the situation in terms of human justice
05:05or even international justice, clearly.
05:08And why should Ukraine have to give up land that is theirs,
05:11that an aggressor is trying to take?
05:13That aggressor, of course, being Russia.
05:14Just spelling that out in case Mr. Trump is watching.
05:19Russia's propaganda, John, is always saying one thing
05:21about how they're winning, how they're doing well,
05:23how it's all being in their favour,
05:25how everything is going their way.
05:26But is there a point now, John,
05:28that the Russian people are starting to feel
05:32what the truth of the matter is?
05:33The sanctions are starting to bite.
05:34And perhaps the propaganda that they're fed
05:37isn't as convincing as it has been.
05:41I would dispute that.
05:42I think the propaganda is still working extremely well.
05:46From what we can understand,
05:48there's no desire in the Russian public en masse
05:53to see this war end on terms
05:57that would not be advantageous to Russia.
05:59So I think there's still a lot of support
06:01to continue the fighting
06:03because Putin's led the population
06:05to believe that victory is imminent.
06:07So he's set certain expectations here
06:09and it's difficult to walk away from them.
06:11So I don't think we can rely on
06:13any sort of anti-war community within Russia
06:16to be raising its head
06:18and calling for the war to end.
06:21It's true that economic problems
06:23are definitely starting to mount up.
06:26But Putin feels, and probably correctly,
06:29that he can last in this war longer than Ukraine can.
06:32And I think it's very significant
06:34that he's laying waste
06:35to the Ukrainian energy sector.
06:38Ukrainians are suffering very badly
06:40in the middle of winter right now.
06:41And it's going to be very difficult
06:43to repair the power system
06:46over the coming months.
06:47And I think one has to consider here
06:48that Ukrainian industry
06:50is also being badly hit by this.
06:52I'm certainly aware of one major industrial producer
06:55just having to stop production completely
06:57because of the problems with power supply.
07:00So the problems, I think,
07:03are mounting up on both sides
07:04because the Russians are not achieving
07:06this level of military advance
07:08that they're promising the whole time.
07:10They're not breaking through Ukrainian lines
07:12in a significant way.
07:13And I think if you zoom out,
07:15you can really see that there's something
07:18of a perhaps relatively stable front line overall.
07:22The Russians are advancing,
07:23but at a snail's pace.
07:25And I think this explains why they've resorted
07:27to, in fact, attacking the civilian population
07:30and really trying to destroy
07:32the critical energy infrastructure in Ukraine.
07:35So that's an indication
07:36they're not doing so well.
07:37Indeed.
07:38Vladimir Zelensky talking about
07:39an unconditional long-term ceasefire
07:41is what he'd like to see.
07:42He says Putin's got no intention
07:43of going for that.
07:44I think that's a fair assumption to make.
07:47The situation on the ground, though,
07:48and you've been alluding to this, John,
07:50in your previous answer,
07:51for ordinary Ukrainians,
07:53it's getting more and more difficult
07:55with the breaking down of the home comforts
07:58that that's a very cosy way to put it.
08:01But it is, in the temperatures
08:03that we're talking about,
08:04minus 20 and even colder,
08:06a matter of life and death for many people.
08:08Add to that the fact
08:09they can't feed themselves properly.
08:10They can't access the kind of drinking water
08:12that they should be getting access to.
08:15Are those problems, do you think,
08:17going to weigh as much on these talks,
08:21on these discussions as they go forward,
08:22as any other military question?
08:26Well, I think negotiations
08:28always take place in a context.
08:29And this context has changed
08:31over the past few months
08:32because Ukraine's position
08:33in this respect has deteriorated
08:35as the Russians have really gone
08:38about systematically destroying
08:40Ukraine's critical infrastructure.
08:42So that has to surely weigh
08:44on the minds of those people
08:46at the negotiating table.
08:47And indeed, for President Zelensky,
08:49he's got to make a calculation here.
08:52His big hope is that he can persuade
08:55the Americans to provide
08:57a credible security guarantee
09:00that would allow him technically,
09:03I think, to agree to,
09:05at least not the abandonment of territory
09:07in the Donbass region,
09:09but it being converted into a territory
09:11which might be described,
09:13I think in his language,
09:14as a special economic zone
09:15or something of that kind,
09:17where the Ukrainians might withdraw
09:19some of their forces
09:20and you can envisage a situation there
09:23where the Ukrainians believe
09:24they have the support of their allies
09:27and notably the United States
09:29to prevent any further Russian aggression.
09:32The trouble is the Russians
09:33reject this approach
09:35and want to ensure
09:37that there are no, for example,
09:39foreign troops on Ukraine's territory,
09:41the size of the Ukrainian military
09:43is limited
09:45and that they can
09:47very probably,
09:48once they've recovered
09:49from the impact this war's
09:51had on them,
09:52that they can move further
09:53into Ukraine at some point.
09:55So they are, I think,
09:56prepared to play the long game
09:58and that is a big problem
09:59strategically for Ukraine.
10:01Indeed.
10:01John Love, thank you very much indeed
10:03for being with us
10:04and bringing your clarity
10:05to the situation.
10:07It's much appreciated.
10:08John Love,
10:08the head of foreign policy
10:09at the new Eurasian Strategies Centre.
10:11Thank you, sir, very much indeed.
10:13Pleasure talking with you.
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