Macron says Europe 'ready' to offer security guarantees to Ukraine

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00:00Away from the negotiations, Zelensky has been meeting with Emmanuel Macron in Paris today.

00:05Kiev's allies are scrambling for a path forward on security guarantees

00:09as they look to define how they can support Ukraine post-conflict,

00:13even though talks to end the war have been stalled.

00:15Well, let's take a listen to what the French and Ukrainian leaders had to say.

00:21We Europeans are ready to provide security guarantees to Ukraine

00:26and to the Ukrainian people on the day peace is signed.

00:29That is the commitment we made in Washington.

00:32The contributions that were prepared, documented and confirmed this afternoon

00:37at the level of the ministers of defence in an extremely confidential manner

00:41allow us to say that this preparatory work is now complete.

00:46It will now become a political matter which allows us to be firm.

00:49Tomorrow, after these discussions, we will return to tell you

00:53that we are ready for a strong and lasting peace for Ukraine and for the Europeans.

00:57Today, we find ourselves at a moment when France, like other countries,

01:07generally seeks to bring peace closer.

01:10Unfortunately, we have not received any signals from Russia

01:13that it truly wishes to put an end to this war.

01:17I am convinced that our unity, above all the unity of the European Union,

01:21which has been at our side since the very beginning of the war, is essential.

01:27This unity between Europe and the Americans will help us increase pressure on Russia

01:32to move toward a diplomatic solution.

01:35Well, to tell us more about today's meeting, France 24's international affairs commentator,

01:43Ketavan Gurdjistani, joins me in the studio.

01:45Hi, Ketavan.

01:46So, tell us what we can expect from this meeting of the coalition,

01:49the meeting of the coalition of the willing that's happening tomorrow.

01:52Well, we can expect the coalition to really show and announce that they are ready and willing

01:59to give security guarantees to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire or a peace deal with Russia.

02:07It's been weeks now that the army chiefs of the different countries involved in the coalition of the willing

02:12have been working on sort of coming up with a concrete plan of what they are willing and capable of doing

02:21and what they can contribute.

02:22Now, we are not expecting, at least publicly, to get the details of what country is going to contribute what exactly,

02:30but the idea is to show that they know the plan, that they have made those decisions and made those determinations,

02:37and to send the message to Russia that they have something ready,

02:43which one French official from the Elysee called a multi-step deterrence system.

02:48How does that work?

02:49They say that the first line of defense will continue to be the Ukrainian army,

02:54and that is why the coalition of willing, part of their contribution,

02:58will be to continue supporting the Ukrainian military for it to be strong.

03:03If the Ukrainian military is attacked in the event of a ceasefire, then there would be a second line of defense.

03:10That's the much-talked-about reassurance force that could involve troops from different countries of the coalition

03:17stationed in Ukraine, not necessarily on the front lines, but in the country itself.

03:24And then if those coalition forces were to be attacked by the Russians, there would be a third line of defense,

03:32and that is the even more talked-about U.S. backstop.

03:36Because that reassurance force that I was talking about, everyone agrees.

03:40Emmanuel Macron, Vladimir Zelensky, Donald Trump, all of the leaders involved have been saying it from the beginning.

03:47This can only work if there is a U.S. backstop to that reassurance force.

03:52And so in a briefing with reporters, the French official also really made it clear what they were expecting from the Americans.

04:00He said, we now have enough contribution to be able to tell the United States, we're ready to take responsibility for our share.

04:09It's now up to you to do the same.

04:12What are they expecting from the Americans when it comes to taking responsibility?

04:16One is to make things clear as to what exactly the Americans are willing to contribute when it comes to that backstop.

04:23There have been talk about intel, about communications, about logistics, and the mother of all backstops, of course,

04:30the one that Vladimir Zelensky really wants, which is a air support backstop from the Americans.

04:36The second part of the responsibility that the coalition wants the Americans to take is to put more pressure on Vladimir Putin

04:45to actually get to a ceasefire, because without a ceasefire, all of this plan doesn't really matter.

04:50And meanwhile, Donald Trump, who's been hosting the Polish president at the White House,

04:55said things would happen if he was unhappy with President Vladimir Putin's response.

05:02Yes, because Donald Trump has been talking about and being frustrated with Vladimir Putin recently.

05:10He was asked whether he did have a message to Vladimir Putin.

05:14He said, no, no message.

05:16He knows where I stand.

05:17I don't need to tell him.

05:18But the problem is, we've seen Donald Trump repeatedly show frustration with Vladimir Putin,

05:24threaten Vladimir Putin with more or less concrete elements of possible punishments.

05:31In this case, it wasn't very clear what would happen, but that is a threat to Vladimir Putin.

05:37But so far, Russia has not shown any signs of any intention to actually really come to the negotiating table.

05:44Yet, Donald Trump has held back on actual sanctions or punishments.

05:51Deadlines have come and gone.

05:53There is one that was coming to an end today or tomorrow, so we'll see if that changes.

05:58But he also said that he had the power to end things.

06:02Yet he said that it was more difficult than he expected to end the war between Ukraine and Russia.

06:08And he showed, again, frustration when one reporter challenged him and asked him,

06:13you've expressed a lot of frustration, but why haven't you taken concrete action against Vladimir Putin?

06:20Donald Trump dismissing this, saying, do not see that secondary sanctions on India are action on my part.

06:29So that was the only example of him pressuring Russia, was putting tariffs on India.

06:35So that is something that we'll have to continue to look at, whether or not Donald Trump actually goes through with his repeated threats.

06:45While there is, to remind our viewers, a huge package of sanctions against Russia ready to go,

06:52a bipartisan package ready to go in the U.S. Congress.

06:56One note, a positive note for Ukraine and its NATO allies, and especially the eastern flank,

07:03is that, as you said, he was meeting with the Polish president.

07:07And there's been a lot of talk about the U.S. administration sort of wanting to draw down its U.S. troops in Europe,

07:13especially on that eastern flank, to move them to something they feel is more important, which is the Indo-Pacific.

07:20He was asked whether American troops would stay in Poland.

07:23He said, I think so. They might even get more if they want.

07:28But he did say that he had been thinking about withdrawing troops from other countries, not Poland.

07:35Why not Poland? Because Poland is a very good player when it comes to military spending in the NATO.

07:41They're top of the class for military spending in NATO.

07:44They're also a huge buyer of U.S. weapons.

07:48And so, at least for now, it seems that removing troops from Poland is not on the table for the U.S. president.

07:55Ketivan, thank you so much for that. Ketivan Gorjastani with that piece of analysis.

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