00:00Let's begin our next guest. Ian Lesser is a distinguished fellow at the German Marshall Fund in the United States.
00:05Ian, thanks for being with us. I'm wondering what your take on the situation is right now.
00:10Donald Trump saying this could go on for four to five weeks.
00:13This is the same Donald Trump who said, of course, he didn't want to get the U.S. involved in
00:16forever wars abroad.
00:20Well, good to be with you. You know, this situation is evolving very rapidly and the prospects for escalation,
00:25both in terms of the nature of the strikes, but also in terms of the geography.
00:30It can also expand. We've seen limited strikes in Cyprus, but there's the potential also for Iran to reach even
00:39southern Europe.
00:40Turkey, southern Europe, all of these things are possible. U.S. bases in Greece and Turkey.
00:45That would be a substantial escalation, obviously, and it would even implicate NATO directly.
00:50So I'm not predicting that, but it just goes to underscore the extent to which Europe itself is actually not
00:57just a stakeholder in this crisis,
00:59but also exposed to the consequences.
01:02Hear exactly what you're saying. The drone hitting, of course, the U.K. base on the island of Cyprus.
01:08Cyprus, of course, is part of the European Union.
01:10We understand that that drone was fired not from Iran, but from southern Lebanon.
01:16Do we read anything into this? I mean, clearly there are Iranian proxies operating that.
01:22Well, that's right. And I think, you know, you can also see in the Israeli strikes that are being conducted
01:27over the last days in Lebanon
01:30that the Israelis at least see this as part of a complex of not just the Iranian, the conflict with
01:38Iran directly,
01:39but also Iran's support for proxies in the region and others who are, you know, quite willing to reach out
01:44and strike
01:44not just Israeli targets, but also others.
01:48And so, you know, this is just another dimension, it seems to me, of how this is not just a
01:54limited conflict between Iran and Israel
01:58and the United States, but is involving lots of others, frankly, on both sides.
02:06And it may be that, as Donald Trump says, this goes on for weeks.
02:11And, you know, what will be the end states?
02:15It's quite possible that these strikes will be as far as it goes.
02:18It will either provoke a change or a change of kind in the regime, possibly a coup, something of that
02:24nature, or not.
02:26And it would be quite possible at that point for the United States and Israel and others who might be
02:30part of this coalition
02:31to say, well, look, we reduced Iran's capacity to do the following things,
02:36including their ballistic missile arsenal, and, well, at that point, essentially disengage.
02:42And maybe that will lead to further diplomacy, or maybe it won't.
02:46There are so many questions to be asked, Ian, and this is a fast-moving situation now, as you were
02:52saying.
02:54The question of international law, we've had the statement from Iran's permanent representative at the UN,
03:00and Amir Saeed Irvani, backed up by a statement that's coming to me from the Iranian embassy here in Paris,
03:06regarding the targeting of civilians.
03:08And we heard from our correspondent in Tehran that there was a suspected double-tap attack in the east of
03:14Tehran,
03:14which, under the Geneva Convention and the Rome Statute, would be deemed illegal.
03:20Whilst some people might say, analysts, that what is happening in changing the regime in Iran,
03:26or getting rid of the Ayatollah, however you want to put it, would be a good thing to do,
03:31clearly what is being done, perhaps legally, is questionable.
03:39I think the administration, Washington, has been quite clear that this is not at the top of their agenda.
03:44They see an existential threat emanating from Iran.
03:47Israel obviously feels that even more directly.
03:51And, you know, in this kind of a situation, sort of the niceties of international law,
03:55unfortunately, go to the wayside.
03:57And, you know, clearly that's also been true of Iranian behavior in the past.
04:01But it's not a good moment in terms of human costs of conflict.
04:06It's not a good moment in terms of the potential for further escalation and conflict.
04:12And whether or not civilian targets are actually being targeted intentionally, I actually doubt that.
04:19But on an attack of this scale, it would be very surprising if there weren't very substantial civilian casualties in
04:26any case.
04:27And that's simply the reality of a conflict of this kind.
04:30It's extremely sad, but it's the reality.
04:32Indeed, I think most people would agree with your assessment there, to my devil's advocate question.
04:37In terms of what happens next, though, I mean, clearly, if this goes on for four or five weeks,
04:42Donald Trump may be in the situation where he's perhaps going to go against everything he campaigned on,
04:47which was basically not getting the U.S. involved in another lengthy foreign conflict.
04:52And he has actually today ruled out the sending of troops.
04:56Do you envisage a situation where that might happen?
04:59Well, I think that's still very, very unlikely, because that's crossing really a kind of political red line in the
05:04United States.
05:05We're about nine months out from midterm elections in the United States.
05:08And, you know, already for much of the president's base, this kind of international activism,
05:13and this isn't obviously the only example, is surprising and provokes a lot of skepticism.
05:21That said, if the president could come away with something that is ostensibly a victory from this,
05:26and four and five weeks is not, frankly, a very long time,
05:30as long as it doesn't involve a large-scale ground presence of any kind,
05:35then I think, you know, the American public may actually support it.
05:38After all, the United States has been in a conflictual relationship with Iran for almost 50 years.
05:44You know, there's a very strong sort of pent-up mood of trying to get some justice for what has,
05:50from an American perspective, been decades of violence against not just Americans,
05:54but our interests and others.
05:56So, you know, I think, you know, I wouldn't underestimate the president's ability to read the political mood.
06:02He obviously is very strongly committed to this operation, even if he has to take some political risks.
06:07Indeed, I hear what you're saying.
06:08Most Americans, we understand, according to the surveys, not with Trump on this operation.
06:13And one wonders as well, sort of, how does this stand in terms of Trump saying he deserves the Nobel
06:18Peace Prize?
06:20Well, you know, there was some polling done, actually, just before this strike.
06:24That I've seen that suggests that maybe only about 20 percent of Americans supported the further use of force against
06:30Iran.
06:31So, but that said, there is a tendency to rally behind the flag.
06:35And if there aren't large costs to the United States, human costs to the United States,
06:40if markets and energy markets aren't destabilized,
06:43if all those things that are possible don't actually happen,
06:46you know, the president may, in a sense, get away with it
06:49and actually, you know, pull something out that he can claim as a victory.
06:54I think he's clearly looking for that.
06:56In general, his performance on these fronts has been very surprising.
07:01I mean, not only has he been very active,
07:03but he's certainly not the isolationist that many might have imagined at the beginning of his term, second term.
07:10Very unilateralist, perhaps, but very activist as well.
07:13You know, arguably the most foreign policy-oriented president since George H.W. Bush.
07:19Ian Lesser, distinguished fellow of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
07:23Thank you, sir, for sharing your analysis with us.
07:25Thanks for your time, sir.
07:26Thank you very much, indeed, for joining us here in front of the world.
07:27Good to be with you.
07:28We appreciate it.
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