00:00Well, basically, Matt, this is one of those go-figure things.
00:02The ISM Manufacturing Index showed that prices paid shot up,
00:06and the Services Index showed they declined a little bit,
00:09and it's probably telling us that what we're seeing on the manufacturing side
00:13is tariff-related costs, and it was the first of the year,
00:18so maybe those start to fade,
00:20but we're going to have to see with all the changes in the tariffs.
00:23The other things that you want to look at, of course, are employment,
00:26and employment rises to 51.8 from 50.3, so that may be some good news.
00:32We got a little bit of a disappointing DEP number today,
00:36still showing not a lot of expansion there.
00:39And then when we look at inventories, they're up sharply to 56.4 from 45.1,
00:47and then the question becomes, do you slow down because you've rebuilt the inventories?
00:52So the numbers, I think, that really matter are the headline number
00:56and the price is paid number, as you mentioned.
00:58The new orders number does rise substantially, 58.6 from 53.1.
01:03So the service industries seem to be hanging in there and maybe adding some people,
01:07and the manufacturing side of it may be a victim of tariffs, and that may change.
01:12That seems to be the view of most Fed officials these days.
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