00:00Jobless claims of 207,000, Jonathan, that's below actually the market estimate of 219,000.
00:05So it speaks to the idea that the employment market continues to be one of low hiring, low firing.
00:12These numbers lean into the stabilisation theme.
00:14There can be volatility, of course, at this time of year with Easter break and with spring break, etc.
00:19But just having a quick glance at the headlines that I saw coming out there,
00:22it does speak to the idea that the jobs market is finding its feet.
00:25And remember, the backdrop was the official data for the month of March,
00:27that we had very strong job gains, broad-based unemployment rate falling.
00:31So I don't think these numbers this morning would necessarily lean into a near-term dovish case for the Fed.
00:38207 is just absolutely phenomenal.
00:40Andrew, I just want to sit on the 207.
00:42I know this is a low hire, low fire jobs market, but 207K.
00:48Can you frame that for us, Andrew, for people that maybe don't follow the labour market as closely here in
00:52the US,
00:53just how low that number is?
00:55Well, it's historical lows, Jonathan.
00:57I don't have the exact size and scope for you now, but I know it is historical.
01:00And it speaks to the idea that despite all of the concerns around the economy with price pressures,
01:06with the oil shock story, etc., the jobs market continues to hold up.
01:10And as long as that's holding up, it's good for the consumer.
01:12The big question, though, is going forward, will we start to see an impact from the diesel costs,
01:17from the fertiliser costs, from the gasoline costs?
01:20And will that start impacting business budgets and the households?
01:23And will they rein in their spending?
01:24And by extension, will we see a hit to the labour market in the months ahead?
01:28We don't know yet because we don't know how the war will end up.
01:30But right here, right now, by all accounts, the jobs market, which the Fed said in January, by the way,
01:34is clearly showing signs of stabilisation.
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