00:00Well, the income and spending report, but the PCE inflation part of that report is what everybody's
00:04watching. Comes in bang on estimates now. Economists have gotten pretty good at estimating
00:09PCE from CPI and PPI numbers. The core year over year, 2.8 percent. The headline, 2.8 percent.
00:17While that is what's expected, it's not going down, which is something that the Fed has been
00:23watching because this is their target 2 percent number. Incomes up three tenths of a percent and
00:30personal spending up half a percent. Both of those as anticipated. Remember, we didn't get October
00:36numbers. So these are basically being compared to September. So it's not a real clear path forward
00:46in terms of where we are on all of this, except that the inflation numbers tell us there is an
00:51issue out there. So spending up half percent income up by three tenths tells you that people
01:00are still still making some money, but it is lower than what was anticipated, lower than what we had
01:06seen. So now at this point, maybe the economy slowing some into the fourth quarter. We also had
01:13jobless claims this morning, too, at 8.30 a.m. Mike, how does the employment figures start to factor
01:19into that? Jobless claims came in at 200,000, which is just 1,000 up from the revised 199 the week before.
01:26Still remains very, very low. Almost no change in continuing claims. So we have this low-fire,
01:32low-hire economy that continues to go on. We also got the revisions to third quarter GDP,
01:39a slight increase to 4.4 percent from 4.3. So, you know, some strength in the third quarter. We didn't
01:47see a change in consumer spending numbers. So it really didn't give us any kind of changed view of the
01:54fourth quarter. What we haven't been able to figure out yet, because we don't have enough data, is the
01:59impact of the government shutdown on fourth quarter data. As that comes in, we'll see estimates for fourth
02:05quarter growth come down.
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