00:00Now, as far as inflation, which is the Fed's main concern these days, we're looking at PCE
00:05inflation up four tenths of a percent, a tick lower than what had been expected on a year
00:10over year basis. That still puts us at 3.8 percent, up from three and a half percent.
00:15And remember, the headline PCE is the Fed's two percent target. Core PCE up two tenths of a
00:21percent, a little bit less also than expected. And that puts us at 3.3 percent. The expected
00:27figure up from 3.2 percent in March. So more inflation on a year over year basis. Personal
00:34income was flat on the month. Personal spending up by half a percent, which was as expected.
00:41That's a little bit down from the nine tenths that we saw back in March. So some movement
00:46on the consumer side, a little bit less spending, but still fairly strong with inflation up. Now,
00:52the biggest question is how much of that spending was because of inflation. The increased spending
00:57was because of inflation. We also have durable goods orders out up seven point nine percent on
01:03a headline basis after an eight tenths percent gain in the month of March. Now, you take out
01:08transportation and it falls to one point one percent. So there's a big Boeing effect there.
01:13And then capital goods orders, non-defense X air. This is what really matters. Down one point one
01:19percent after rising three point nine percent in March. The expectation was for a four tenths gain.
01:26So some mixed news on consumers and business spending and some as expected news on inflation.
01:32It's rising still.
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