00:00ADP is out with its monthly estimate of jobs created in the month of December, 41,000, they say.
00:06Annual pay up 4.4 percent.
00:09The change in private employment, of course, is 41,000.
00:13They don't measure what's happening with government.
00:15In the goods producing area, down 3,000, manufacturing off by 5,000, construction and mining add 1,000 each.
00:23Service providing jobs, 44,000.
00:25And, of course, education and health services leads that pack, 39,000.
00:30But 24,000 leisure and hospitality jobs, we had seen a pullback in that area in recent months.
00:37Now the question is, does anybody really care about ADP since we're going to get nonfarm payrolls from the BLS on Friday?
00:44Those numbers are back.
00:46I don't know if we get a shot of Lisa's face.
00:47She's always the one that reacts to ADP.
00:50I'll just answer for her, Mike.
00:51I mean, the short answer for most is no.
00:52She's probably rolling her eyes.
00:53She cared about it for 43 days.
00:55It's a little second.
00:56You know, a lot of people cared about it.
00:58The market did get a little bit tick over some sort of response.
01:02So, the yield's a little bit lower.
01:03Carry on.
01:04This is the bounce, Mike, we were looking for, though, right?
01:06And hopefully we get another bounce on Friday.
01:07How much should we read into this bounce, Mike?
01:09Well, that's always a hard question with ADP.
01:12We did get a bounce.
01:13And we are expecting a bounce in nonfarm payrolls.
01:16So, in the sense of direction, yes, they may be offering some prediction.
01:21But in terms of numbers, it never works out that way.
01:24I will point out that we have seen a steady rise in the forecast, consensus forecast for jobs.
01:31We're now at, let me check, the latest number is 66,000.
01:37So, we've gone up another thousand since yesterday for the nonfarm payrolls consensus forecast.
01:43Those are still low numbers.
01:44But remember, the Fed is looking not so much at those as they are unemployment.
01:49All right.
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