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00:00Let's flip it over to Major League Baseball.
00:01As you did say, we did have pro baseball today on Sunday.
00:04You said, wait a second.
00:05There's no baseball being played yet.
00:06Don't you wear it.
00:07We have five weeks to get you ready for opening day, which we will do that.
00:10But, Tom, as we take a look, it seems to start and end with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
00:15I'm just taking a look at FanDuel right now.
00:16Plus 210 price to win the World Series.
00:19Yankees, Mariners, Mets, Phillies, and Cubs all behind them there.
00:22Once again, Tom, is it just the Dodgers too good for baseball?
00:25And will they win their third straight World Series championship?
00:29That's ridiculous.
00:31Dodgers are by far the best team.
00:33There's no doubt about it.
00:34There's very limited ways to get value on the Dodgers.
00:38The only way I truly believe you can get value on the Dodgers is if you look to exact outcomes,
00:44which are extremely tough to nail down, especially this far out.
00:48They're tough to nail down if we were having this conversation on September 1st.
00:51We wouldn't know exactly how the playoff rack would play out.
00:53But, you know, choosing the Dodgers to beat the Cubs, to beat the Phillies when it comes
00:58to, you know, the NLCS, that's some way to extract value out of the Dodgers.
01:02The same thing would be said about the Dodgers to beat the Yankees, to beat the Tigers in
01:06the World Series.
01:06Because I don't want to lay, or excuse me, not lay, I don't want to take a plus 210 price
01:10on the Dodgers and have that locked up for eight months.
01:13But I would rather take a 15-to-1 number on them on an exact outcome.
01:16They are the best team.
01:17I don't think they'll repeat this year.
01:19I think there's just too much variance in baseball that they can run through a cold
01:23stretch.
01:23I think they'll be there in the NLCS.
01:25But if there's any time, it would be this year that one team unseats them as the best
01:28team.
01:30So we see it every year, Tom, right?
01:32In Major League Baseball, there's always teams that overperform.
01:36And then there's the teams that take a step back.
01:39What are some of the teams we're thinking are going to be what we saw them last year here?
01:45Does Detroit take a step back?
01:47Is it the Guardians, like the Cubs, who is it that takes a step back this year?
01:52So a couple teams that are on my mind initially to start, I think the Guardians will take a
01:56step back.
01:57Them winning the division after an incredible September run and a collapse from Detroit.
02:03It's not just like, oh, the Guardians went 15-5 to close out the season and they come back
02:08and they win the division.
02:09That coincided with Detroit collapsing.
02:11I just don't see that happening again.
02:13So I think the Guardians will be in the mix as they kind of are every year.
02:15I just don't think they'll have that same type of juice as they did last year.
02:18I expect the Brewers to take a step back.
02:21They clearly overperformed last year and they lost talent compared to what they had last year.
02:27Removing Freddy Peralta and getting no one back to replace him.
02:30Like you got back a nice prospect in Jed Williams, but he's not a pitcher.
02:34He's not a frontline starter.
02:35I expect them to take a step back.
02:37On the other side for a team taking a step forward, the San Francisco Giants.
02:41Really high on the San Francisco Giants this year.
02:43Their win total sitting at 81 or 82 and a half.
02:46They made some nice moves in the offseason.
02:48Their team I expect to take a step forward.
02:50Them and the Rangers.
02:52Tom, I want to have some fun with you here.
02:53We talked yesterday.
02:54Cal Raleigh hit 60 home runs last year, which is absolutely incredible.
02:57If we look at his career when he started to be a full-time starter.
03:002022, he hit 27 home runs.
03:022023, 30 home runs.
03:042024, 34 home runs.
03:06Last year, 60.
03:07I'm looking right now at FanDuel, Tom.
03:09And how about this?
03:10His home run total listed at 39 and a half.
03:14If I gave you a free wager on Cal Raleigh this year to hit 40 plus home runs,
03:19are you saying yes or no to that?
03:21I would take the under.
03:22And, you know, last year I think is clearly an outlier.
03:25And it's not just an outlier that he, you know, let's just,
03:29it's not as if he exceeded his career average by a handful.
03:33Like he was at the upper end of the bell curve when it comes to the range of
03:37outcomes where he exceeded it.
03:38And he did so at the highest degree possible.
03:41And, you know, some of that was momentum.
03:43Like, you know, when a player's hot, he's hot.
03:44But to maintain that at a year in and year out basis, no,
03:48if he does exceed 40 and he gets to 50 again, you know,
03:50we have to start having conversation about Cal Raleigh being one of the best
03:53hitting catchers of all time, one of the best catchers of all time.
03:57And I'm just not sure he's there.
03:58Some of his underlying metrics, the strikeout rate, you know,
04:00still hitting 230, 240 just isn't good enough to maintain it on the year
04:04and at near our paces.
04:05We saw a historically great season.
04:07It was fantastic to watch.
04:08I just don't know if he has it every single year.
04:10And by the way, in the playoffs, too, 12 games,
04:12still hit five bombs in the playoffs.
04:14And the man was stroked 65 total home runs last year.
04:17It's incredible.
04:18It's just crazy to see a 39 and a half time.
04:20We'll talk a lot of baseball out in front of the futures.
04:22Thanks for joining us today on the early line.
04:24And myself and Joe Ranieri, we'll continue next.
04:27Major League Baseball certainly on the horizon.
04:29As we said, we're going to have some spring training games a little bit later in the week.
04:32Friday, I believe it starts with the New York Yankees.
04:34And away we go.
04:35We'll follow up the World Baseball Classic and into the regular season.
04:37Let's enjoy that now.
04:39We're not worried about any labor negotiations going to shut down this season.
04:43That'll come next year.
04:44But the Chicago Cubs, they went out.
04:45They spent some money.
04:46They got Alex Bregman here to come in on a five-year contract to play third base.
04:50Also bringing in Cabrera, Imanaga, which was a qualifying offer for him to come back.
04:55Harvey, Maton, Theobar, and Milner here.
04:57The Cubbies.
04:58Could they be the toast of the town in the Central this year, Joe?
05:01Well, yeah.
05:02I mean, aren't they supposed to be each and every year?
05:05It's kind of funny, right?
05:07Like the – oh, yeah.
05:08The over-expectations is crazy.
05:10And then, ultimately, Milwaukee over-performs.
05:14And, you know, the Cardinals, one of the rare down years that they had to hit the reset button there.
05:20But, yeah, I do think it happens that with the players they have, Donnie, right now, the money that they
05:27have spent,
05:28there really is no excuse, right, at this point here for the Cubs,
05:32especially given the fact, like, unless you think the Pirates, who have finally decided to stay –
05:38spend some money, Donnie, are actually going to make a run for it.
05:41I – you know, the Reds are always going to be 500.
05:44We know that.
05:45It's rebuilding for the Cardinals.
05:46So, who's left but the Cubs here to handle business?
05:50Cubs seem totaled this year, 88-and-a-half.
05:53So, 90 clear is going to get you that win here.
05:55I do think there's a chance that they could do that.
05:57I think the Cubs are setting up well.
05:58Just got to stay healthy for this regular season here.
06:01Other news here, free agency, Griffin Canning agrees to a deal.
06:05He's on the move, headed out to San Diego to try to bolster that pitching staff.
06:09Yeah, well, I don't know that Griffin Canning is going to get you the bolstering
06:13that you need to compete out west there, San Diego.
06:17But, you know, listen, I mean, you've had a long drawn-out,
06:21it feels like, Padres ownership battle going on, right?
06:25A.J. Preller, the GM, you know, doesn't have the open checkbook anymore, right?
06:32So, they're in that kind of, you know, they're in that big lull right now where
06:39they could be better than we think, Donnie.
06:41But likely, I would look towards a team total under, a win total for the Padres this year
06:47because I just, I think the public thinks they're going to be better than what they actually are.
06:52Yeah, they just saw that, hey, the Dodgers are just going to way outspend us.
06:55No reason to try to spend with them at this point now.
06:57And you'll see that this year.
06:58Aaron Judge, full participant when the New York Yankees open full squad workouts,
07:02according to Aaron Boone.
07:04Get that arm back in the field here.
07:06So, you don't need 16 relays to throw a guy out of second base.
07:09Yeah, let's hope that's not the case here.
07:13But, yeah, I mean, it should be.
07:15Everyone's had plenty of time to adjust and to heal up, right, Donnie?
07:19No reason that we should have any more elbow issues or anything else.
07:23Like, get out there and let's go.
07:25But what I'm really looking to see is what version of Garrett Cole do we get back?
07:31That's the big one for me with the Yankees.
07:33If he could be good, go there with Max Fried and the boys.
07:36We could come back there.
07:37The Yankees possibly could win that division.
07:39By the way, they finished technically in a tie with Toronto last year.
07:41But he had the extra push for Toronto.
07:44They were the team.
07:45I think 94 wins for both of those teams last year.
07:47How about this one, though?
07:48Nick Castellanos played for the Phillies the past couple years.
07:50Phillies are going to give him $20 million to not play for them this year.
07:53And he winds up in San Diego.
07:55One-year contract at the veteran minimum.
07:57Saves the Phillies, Joe.
07:58A whopping $780,000 this year.
08:01How about that?
08:02Yeah, but they knew that, and they were still willing to be like, just get out of here.
08:06Like, we want nothing to do with you.
08:08But now he's the Padres' headache.
08:10Now, does that mean he bounces back here?
08:12Does he have a chip on his shoulder, or does he not care?
08:16We're going to find that out, I think, rather quickly here with him.
08:20And by the way, Bryce Harper still talking up, being confused about what Dave Dombrowski said
08:25about him last year, which you probably should have kept it in-house, Joe, and they didn't.
08:29But Dave Dombrowski, any fan you hear is like, he said the right things.
08:33Like, we need you to be ultra elite.
08:35We don't know if you can get back to that year.
08:37And that comes in the midst of last year leaking out that Bryce Harper says, like,
08:40seven or eight years on his contract, wanted another extension on top of that.
08:44Bryce Harper, here's a video for him saying, like, you know what?
08:46I'm not understanding this.
08:48Not really.
08:49I mean, I don't get motivated by that kind of stuff.
08:51You know, for me, it was kind of wild, the whole situation of that happening.
08:57I think the big thing for me was, you know, when we first met with this organization,
09:01it was, hey, you know, we're always going to keep things in-house,
09:05and we expect you to do the same thing.
09:06And so, you know, when that didn't happen, it kind of took me for a run a little bit.
09:12So, I don't know.
09:13You know, it's part of it, I guess.
09:15You know, it's kind of a wild situation.
09:18You know, that even happening.
09:19Obviously, I didn't have the year that I wanted.
09:20Obviously, I didn't have the postseason I wanted.
09:23My numbers weren't where they needed to be.
09:25I know that.
09:27And, you know, I don't need to be motivated to be great, you know, in my career or anything else.
09:31So, that's just not a motivating factor for me.
09:35You know, for Dave to come out and say those things, it's kind of wild to me still.
09:40Why did you wear the t-shirt then?
09:42For the motivation?
09:43You know, what?
09:44The t-shirt that he posted.
09:49We'll talk more Harper and much more next.
09:51Also, I want to start here, Joe, with our number two.
09:54So, I'm going to bring up here Bryce Harper talking about the Dodgers spending.
09:58And we'll build off of that.
09:59Let's see this.
10:00Yeah, no, I mean, I love what the Dodgers do, obviously.
10:03I mean, they pay the money.
10:04They spend the money.
10:05I mean, they're a great team.
10:06They understand how to run it.
10:07They run their team like a business.
10:08And they run it the right way.
10:09They understand where they need to put their money into.
10:11But also, people don't look at this either.
10:13Their draft and their development is unbelievable.
10:15Like, they draft and they develop and then they trade those guys for big-name guys.
10:18And they can spend the money.
10:19So, it's, I don't know.
10:21It bothers me when everybody talks about the Dodgers just spending money.
10:24No, they draft.
10:24They develop.
10:25They do it the right way.
10:26They understand what it takes to be the best team in baseball.
10:28And you've seen that the last two years.
10:30They have so much depth.
10:31I mean, I think it was Will Klein, the kid's name was, came in through six shutout innings.
10:35Like, I mean, he was sitting in Arizona two weeks before.
10:38Like, they have that type of dynamic on their club.
10:40And that's what you, when you think about drafting, developing, and things like that,
10:44that's why they win.
10:45And that's why they win a lot of games each year.
10:47So, you know, I love what they do.
10:49I understand what they do.
10:50I understand the madness behind it.
10:53But again, like, each team in baseball has an opportunity to do the same thing.
10:57Maybe not at the upper echelon of money.
11:00But they can draft.
11:01They can develop.
11:01They can trade.
11:02And, you know, I just, I don't know.
11:05I think a lot of teams can do that in baseball.
11:07And they should.
11:09Talking point number one, Joe.
11:11Before I get your comment, let's roll it over to another superstar who's in the same division
11:15as the Dodgers.
11:16This is Manny Machado.
11:17Is it tough to see, since you're in the same division, what the Dodgers are doing to spend
11:22that kind of money?
11:22Or are you coming used to it by now?
11:24I f***ing love it.
11:25I love it.
11:26I mean, honestly, I think every team should be doing it.
11:29You know, they figured out a way to do it.
11:32And s*** is f***ing great for the game, honestly.
11:34So, I think every team has the ability to do it.
11:39So, you know, I hope, you know, all 30 teams could learn from that.
11:45This is way down the road.
11:48Now, Joe, the talking points have already been met.
11:52You were talking about, like, I don't know what sport you play where another team was
11:55like, man, I love the fact that that other team's spending money.
11:58They're going to absolutely break our back in the postseason.
12:00It's so good for the game.
12:02The talking points are coming up because next year, December 1st, Joe, the CBA ends
12:06between Major League Baseball and also the Players Union here.
12:09They're going to have a long, drawn-out one.
12:11And it looks like right now the owners are saying, you're going to get a cap.
12:15And now you have the superstar players already talking a year ahead of time going, like,
12:19we love what the Dodgers do.
12:20We love the fact.
12:21And you hear those little snippets of what they say, like, every team could spend as
12:24much as the Dodgers and run it like a business.
12:26We're ready for Armageddon, Joe.
12:29Yeah.
12:30Well, so let me get this straight.
12:31According to Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, what should be debated isn't the fact that
12:38we have a league that is filled now with the haves and the have-nots, and many of the have
12:43-nots
12:44have absolutely no interest in winning games because why would they?
12:48They're still going to make the same money that the Dodgers and the Yankees and everyone
12:52else made for them.
12:53But it should not be.
12:54I mean, that's it.
12:55The only question then is why are teams not spending like the Dodgers?
13:01That's what the debate is, is that more teams should operate like the Dodgers operate and
13:07spend trillions of dollars on players.
13:09And they're going to do that in what?
13:11Pittsburgh?
13:12They're going to do that in Kansas City?
13:13They're going to do that in markets that don't have a chance of making the same kind
13:18of money that the Dodgers or the Yankees do?
13:20I can tell you right now, let me guess, Scott Boris is the agent for these guys because that
13:27is about as crazy a talking point.
13:29That sounds like Scott Boris talked to me is what it sounds like.
13:33Exactly.
13:34Everybody spends some money.
13:35Everybody do this.
13:36And by the way, Bryce Harper, love him, plays hard, icon in Philadelphia.
13:39No, the Dodgers don't draft and they put those players out there.
13:4295% of their team is free agents at this point because they overpay and they can pay more
13:47than anybody else.
13:48And it's a separate business model than the rest of the league runs.
13:50And also, you can say, well, that's the Dodgers point of view.
13:53And yes, they're doing nothing wrong at this point.
13:55But there was a time, Joe, in the NFL where the Mara family in New York goes, we could outspend
13:59every single team by 15 times.
14:03That's not going to be good for this league.
14:04I look over to teams like Green Bay and Pittsburgh.
14:06We need to revenue share and spend the same for the health of the league.
14:10Voila, Joe, what's the best league in the United States sports landscape?
14:14It's the NFL.
14:15And they make a ton of money, whether it's Green Bay or New York, because they understand
14:19the task at hand.
14:20Give every single team the same chance at winning and the same prosperity and things
14:25will be much, much better.
14:27Major League Baseball just feels like, let's just run the Dodgers seven straight World Series.
14:30It'll be great to hate on the biggest teams here.
14:32We have so much more time to talk about Major League Baseball, but I just thought it was
14:35hilarious, Joe, to see the superstars of teams that will have to face the Dodgers go,
14:39I love what they do.
14:41They're going to beat our brains in.
14:42No, it just means you love what they spend, which means you hope everybody spends, which
14:46means you make more money at this point.
14:47We'll get to those topics and much more a little bit later as the weeks move forward.
14:51Good job.
14:51Good job.
14:51Good job.
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