00:00A few heads of state making the trip to Hamburg for this summit.
00:04Not among them was France's president.
00:08Relations between France's Emmanuel Macron and Germany's Friedrich Mertz have been of late a bit, how should we put it, chaotic, I'd say.
00:20Janet Seuss is with us, researcher for the Committee for the Study of Franco-German Relations at the French Institute of International Relations.
00:28Ifri, you've just published a study on how Germany makes its European policy.
00:34There you see it.
00:35I said chaotic.
00:36Maybe it's not chaotic.
00:37Let's just say it's not the bromance we expected.
00:43And in the face last week of superpower pressures from Russia, but also from the United States, other Europeans are worried.
00:54They want the Germans and the French to get along better.
00:56What are the points of discord here?
00:59So first of all, I would say that we are in this time, in this phase of the relationship maybe where the relationship is put to a test.
01:07Whereas in the beginning, one year ago, there was this bromance, this narrative about that.
01:14Very symbolic, of course, first meetings between Macron and Mertz.
01:18But now, as things are materializing and we have to put it down, to break it down to different aspects, be it in the economic field, in the trade field, in the defense sector, the cooperation, it's becoming more difficult because it's becoming concrete.
01:33But there's always been divergences, structural divergences between France and Germany.
01:38So we have a very big divergence in the trade sector where Germany advocates for free trade deals all over the world.
01:47And France is a bit more reluctant and a bit more protectionist, you could also say, from a German viewpoint.
01:52Then you have the defense cooperation, but we also do have some leeway when it comes to, for example, the cooperation in the energy sector.
02:01So there is also some positive signs and also some common measures that are announced for more EU competitiveness.
02:07All right, so let's break down the first two, because, again, this is all about Europe building up its self-reliance in the face of a U.S. ally that is not as reliable to them as it once was.
02:21On trade, the difference over Mercosur, is that surmountable?
02:27I mean, anyway, the deal was adopted at the end in the Council of Ministers and France was bypassed by the other member states.
02:36This was, of course, a tough situation between France and Germany, because Germany was hoping to be able to convince France by giving in and by giving some compromises, by giving in to the concerns that they had for the farmers, especially, and the demonstrations that were going on.
03:00So there's, of course, a political pressure on the domestic side here.
03:04But Germany didn't really convince Macron at the end.
03:07They had to give in to this political pressure.
03:10But there's other situations where we can see that both states are still pretty much aligned.
03:17So when it comes to Donald Trump, they were both in favor of having a clear stance towards the U.S., for example.
03:24But Germany still has this export-driven model, which the French don't have.
03:28So is that something that's insurmountable?
03:30And that's why it's easier for Germany to conclude these free trade agreements, whereas for France, it's a bit of a different story.
03:40But I think France is really worried about its agricultural sector, and Germany has other type of industries, especially the automotive industry, very export-driven.
03:51So it has a hard time saying it doesn't want to – it wants to stop exporting.
03:58It really wants to continue exporting all over the world, of course.
04:00And then there's defense, where the arguments run twofold.
04:04There's whether each side accuses the other of not leveling up enough.
04:08The French are accused of not spending enough on Ukraine.
04:12The Germans accused of not spending enough, period.
04:15And the two don't get along when it comes to, for instance, plans to build weaponry together.
04:21Yeah, on the one hand, we can see that there is pretty much of an alignment when it comes to the rhetorical side.
04:27So there is this, what Macron already said, a strategic autonomy discourse going on since 2017.
04:35And Germany didn't really apply back in the day under Merkel or Scholz.
04:39And now Friedrich Merz, he really welcomes this concept.
04:42He's also in favor of producing more European-based weapons systems as such.
04:48But when it comes to the concrete projects between France and Germany, so the F-CAS, the fighter jet, future combat air system especially,
04:54and then we have the MGCS, the main round combat system.
04:57Are both those projects dead?
04:59They're not dead.
05:01The tank project is a bit more reliable.
05:05However, for the F-CAS, the future combat air system, there is a very hard competition going on.
05:11Because some people are saying Europe is facing an existential crisis
05:15and that the last week, the threats against Greenland, what's happening in Ukraine, are existential crises.
05:21And they feel as though they don't understand why the French and the Germans aren't getting along.
05:25There's definitely a sense of urgency, I feel.
05:28However, yeah, there is this competition going on, especially between Dassault on the one hand and Airbus on the other hand.
05:36And there's also the Spanish side, the Spanish part inside.
05:40So it's all a question about technological leadership.
05:43France worried about losing its leadership, about losing its intellectual property.
05:49And Germany having rather like a stance of wanting to share knowledge, to work together collaboratively.
05:56But at the end, just giving money without having necessarily the savoir-faire.
06:00So last Friday, Friedrich Mertz goes to Rome, sees Giorgia Meloni, the far-right head of a coalition government.
06:11And there extols that they can get along, together they can help to simplify Europe.
06:16The message was kind of like, is this the new motor for the EU or is France sidelined?
06:23Or what did you make of this Friday visit to Rome?
06:27I think it's rather complimentary because what we have to put into context is and what we have to remember is that there has been a dialogue going on already under the previous German government, under Olaf Scholz.
06:40In 2023, Italy and Germany signed a bilateral agreement for an action plan.
06:45And now this is really an update of this action plan by materializing it into concrete projects which are developed further.
06:51So of course, Italy and Germany have a lot of things in common.
06:56There are major industrial powers within the EU.
06:58Sometimes it's a bit easier maybe to collaborate in terms of industrial culture, but it can't replace the French-German tandem.
07:04So is the beating heart of the EU shifting from a Paris-Berlin axis to a Berlin-Rome axis?
07:10I wouldn't say that because we also have other actors within the EU and we are seeing rather a multiplication of different forms, different flexible formats within the EU.
07:21So it's rather millilateral partners like the Weimar Triangle, Weimar Plus, and we have E3 with the UK also, super important in the defense corporation.
07:32And then we have France and Italy now becoming important players, of course, because Merz, he also knows that the time frame to shape European policy with Macron is quite limited, as there will be presidential elections taking place in 2027.
07:47How about ordinary Germans? Do they prefer to do business with the Italians than with the French?
07:52There is a very narrow business relationships between Italy and Germany.
07:57Even though there's this kind of Republican firewall in Germany that you have, like in France, and Meloni is from the far right.
08:04That's true. And that's something that is criticized also by the coalition partner, the Social Democrats, within the German government, that Merz doesn't, shouldn't, shouldn't team up too much with Meloni and the ECR, the European Conservative and Reformist Party within the European Parliament.
08:22And on the other hand, these are a talk coalition, so there's not a systematic collaboration going on between these political families.
08:30Getting back to Paris and Berlin, would you say the relationship is in crisis right now?
08:36No, definitely not. There has always been divergences.
08:39What we can see is definitely an improved relationship in the sense that it's way more regular, that Paris and Berlin talk to each other.
08:46And there is a Franco-German roadmap that dates back to August 2025.
08:50The problem is that there has been so many government reshuffles that both governments had a hard time implementing what they have been announced in this Franco-German roadmap, especially focusing on EU competitiveness.
09:03Because Emmanuel Macron seemed like the strong one next to Olaf Scholz with the weaknesses, the coalition issues that he had.
09:11Now, with the French governments falling consistently, with Macron being term limited and leaving office, is the French the weaker link in this case?
09:21There is kind of a power shift that we can sense to a certain extent.
09:25However, I would say that Macron still keeps a certain momentum and keeps his power when it comes to steering foreign policy,
09:34as he has a very vocal stance and very important role, also constitutionally speaking, as being the French president,
09:42which is not so much the case for a German chancellor in terms of, you know, position and possibility.
09:49So there is still this permanent role of Macron.
09:52However, of course, there is a lack of credibility when it comes to other policy domains, especially the interior affairs of France.
10:00All right, Janet, so many thanks for joining us here on France.
10:03Thanks for having me.
10:03Stay with us.
10:04There's more to come, more news, plus the day's business and sports.
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