00:00Gulliver Craig, our correspondent in Kyiv.
00:01Let's move from Kyiv, let's go to London.
00:03Let's bring in John Loft, the geopolitical analyst.
00:05This is commentator, head of foreign policy at the new Eurasian Strategy Centre, Nes.
00:10John, welcome to France 24, always great to have you with us.
00:13And we were talking about who's in the room.
00:15Today, who should we know about?
00:17Notably that the head of Russia's intelligence unit...
00:20the GRU is amongst them, a significant factor.
00:24Do you...
00:25hold the same kind of despairing thought in terms of where this could go as Gulliver?
00:29Or do you...
00:30Do you see room for manoeuvre here?
00:33Well, I'd say it's not a...
00:35basically high-ranking Russian delegation.
00:37The two names that I've heard of are the...
00:40the head of the Russian military intelligence service, and also the...
00:45the person, Kirill Dmitriev, who has been involved in earlier negotiations, and who is a businessman.
00:50And who is the direct counterpart of Steve Witkoff.
00:53So this looks like...
00:55an effort on the Russian side to keep the negotiating process...
01:00going, but not with, I think, any serious commitment to seeing it through...
01:05to a successful end.
01:07We have to be clear here that Putin sees...
01:10I think mainly the opportunity in this process through the fact that he thinks that Trump can...
01:15exercise influence both over Zelensky, President Zelensky, and over Ukraine...
01:20these European allies to persuade them that there really is no point continuing the fight because...
01:25Russia is eventually going to win.
01:27And this, in other words, would be a way, as Putin sees it, to...
01:30accelerate a victorious outcome.
01:33So I'm afraid I share the...
01:35aggression or indeed pessimism of your correspondent in Kyiv.
01:39I think the Ukrainian...
01:40expectations of these talks are very low.
01:43They know exactly what the Russian strategy...
01:45is, they can see it being implemented now with extreme brutality in terms of the...
01:49just targeting...
01:50of the energy infrastructure during this cold snap.
01:53And this is an effort on the...
01:55of Moscow to try to break the will of the Ukrainian people to continue the...
02:00of the war.
02:01But we see no sign that Ukrainians are giving up, even though they're numerically...
02:05numbered.
02:06The Russians are advancing places on the battlefield.
02:08But it's actually a relatively still...
02:10static picture.
02:11And that's how it has been over what the last...
02:15three years or so now.
02:16And the thought that this is entering...
02:18this war is entering its fifth year.
02:20And Russia controls...
02:22what around...
02:23you know...
02:2420% of...
02:25you...
02:25Ukrainian territory.
02:26It really...
02:28this war has gone, I think, so far.
02:30very, very badly for the Russians.
02:32And their economy is starting to hurt.
02:34And I think they have to be...
02:35questions raised just about how credible...
02:37this strategy is of Putin...
02:39because he's been...
02:40talking for months...
02:41and probably over...
02:42over a year now...
02:43about the possibility...
02:44the Ukrainians...
02:45collapsing any moment.
02:46Two thoughts there.
02:47First of all, I guess, what the Donbass gives...
02:49in its vast...
02:50territory is...
02:51it's the industrial...
02:52heartland.
02:53The coal mining area...
02:55Luhansk and Donetsk...
02:56because we know most of...
02:57if not all...
02:58are bits of no man's land in Luhansk.
03:00are occupied...
03:02are there still...
03:03I think...
03:04maybe about 20% of...
03:05of Donetsk...
03:06depending on...
03:07different...
03:08analysis...
03:09that is still...
03:10in Ukrainian hands.
03:11We're talking about...
03:12Pokrovsk as well...
03:13in and amongst that.
03:14I just...
03:15wonder your thoughts...
03:16because you...
03:17you talk about...
03:18this is a...
03:19you know...
03:20for Russia...
03:20it's not what they wanted...
03:21but this allows...
03:22Putin doesn't it...
03:23to present something...
03:24that you know...
03:25kind of a golden gem...
03:26of Ukraine...
03:27the Donetsk...
03:28as you say...
03:29there's a kind of...
03:30the...
03:30going...
03:31marching slowly...
03:32towards it as well...
03:33and I do wonder...
03:34whether actually...
03:35we're going to see...
03:35that issue go away...
03:36because the...
03:37study of war...
03:38the Institute of Study of War...
03:39estimates it will take...
03:40Russian troops...
03:40up until...
03:41August next year...
03:42to conquer the rest...
03:43of the Donbass...
03:44it goes back...
03:45to your other point...
03:45and the leverage...
03:46is slowly diminishing...
03:47isn't it?
03:48Well...
03:49I...
03:50I think it is to...
03:51to some extent...
03:52we have to see...
03:53on the Russian side...
03:54Putin has set...
03:55expectations...
03:55of a rapid victory...
03:57and that's not...
03:58going to come about...
03:59and I think...
04:00Ukrainians are going...
04:01to continue...
04:02fighting...
04:03the Russians may...
04:04advance a little bit...
04:05faster...
04:06when the spring comes...
04:07and the foliage returns...
04:08and they're not...
04:09as...
04:10exposed...
04:11but Ukraine...
04:12I suspect...
04:13will somehow...
04:14keep going...
04:15with the assistance of it...
04:15in the main...
04:16it's European...
04:17allies...
04:18so the...
04:19the question is...
04:20how...
04:20long can the...
04:21the Russians carry on?
04:22Putin wants to...
04:23show something...
04:24absolutely tangible...
04:25and of course...
04:26you know...
04:27territorial acquisitions...
04:28are a very useful way...
04:29of showing...
04:30in principle...
04:30that...
04:31you know...
04:32the war has achieved...
04:33a result...
04:34but there's a nice...
04:35phrase in Russian...
04:36to describe...
04:35I think...
04:36territories...
04:37such as Donbass...
04:38and that is...
04:39a suitcase...
04:40without a handle...
04:40this is going to be...
04:41a burden...
04:42for Russia...
04:43because the...
04:44industrial assets...
04:45there...
04:46have been...
04:45in many cases...
04:46devastated...
04:47the attraction...
04:48of...
04:49you know...
04:50coal mining...
04:50these days...
04:51is not as great...
04:52as it used to be...
04:53for obvious reasons...
04:54and those territories...
04:55have been largely...
04:56depopulated...
04:57so...
04:58what value...
04:59Russia really sees...
05:00in those...
05:00that I think...
05:01is limited...
05:02beyond the fact...
05:03that they want...
05:04to get hold of...
05:05the...
05:05the towns...
05:06that are known...
05:07as the Fortress Belt...
05:08that are...
05:09really the mainstay...
05:10if you...
05:10Ukraine's defences...
05:11in that region...
05:12at the moment...
05:13because if they can...
05:14control those...
05:15then...
05:15I think...
05:16the path to...
05:17acquiring...
05:18greater influence...
05:19in Ukraine...
05:20or in...
05:20indeed...
05:21invading further...
05:22is...
05:23much...
05:24much easier...
05:25so...
05:26that's why...
05:27it's such a threat...
05:28for Ukraine...
05:29and why...
05:30they don't want...
05:31to give up...
05:32that territory...
05:33particularly...
05:34since they can...
05:35what...
05:36the soldiers say...
05:37is marked...
05:38in the blood...
05:39of...
05:40their loved ones...
05:41people who've...
05:42fallen...
05:43to defend it...
05:44and what...
05:45Gulliver talked about
05:46how the government wants to
05:48continue.
05:50Do you see any
05:53looking and analysing
05:55the political situation
05:56any outcome which could
05:57involve a referendum in
05:58Ukraine on this territory?
06:00I think it would require
06:03the military situation to
06:04deteriorate.
06:05And then you might be
06:09talking about
06:10let's say some division
06:12of that contested
06:13territory at the moment.
06:15This would be of course
06:17extremely unpopular
06:18in Ukraine and
06:19President Solysses.
06:20He has referred to this
06:20repeatedly.
06:23But right now
06:23I think there is a
06:24from
06:25from what we can tell
06:25from the opinion polling
06:26there is a consensus
06:27among Ukrainians
06:28that they must keep
06:29fighting.
06:30because if they don't
06:31they risk losing
06:32their independence
06:32entirely.
06:34And this is what
06:34this war is.
06:35about Russia wants
06:36wants to deprive Ukraine
06:38of the possibility
06:39of being
06:40a viable independent state.
06:42As always
06:43really good to talk to you
06:44John.
06:45our geopolitical analyst
06:46commentator and head
06:47of foreign policy
06:48at New Eurasian
06:49Strategy Centre.
06:50Ness, John
06:51as always
06:51we'll see you soon.
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