Russia's 'underlying' message to Ukraine: 'You're not going to win this conflict, just give in'

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00:00Ukraine has accused Russia of launching an intercontinental ballistic missile at the

00:05city of Dnipro. International experts have not confirmed the Ukrainian claim,

00:11but if verified it would mark a significant escalation in the conflict. Such weapons have

00:16never been used before in the context of a war. They are designed to deliver nuclear strikes,

00:23although this missile was fired without a nuclear warhead.

00:27Reporting from Kyiv, here's our Ukraine correspondent, Gulliver Craig.

00:58Ukraine has accused Russia of launching an intercontinental ballistic missile at the city of

01:01Dnipro. International experts have not confirmed the Ukrainian claim, but if verified it would mark

01:04a significant escalation in the conflict. Such weapons have never been used before in the context

01:07of a war. They are designed to deliver nuclear strikes, although this missile was fired without

01:10a nuclear warhead. International experts have not confirmed the Ukrainian claim, but if verified it

01:13would mark a significant escalation in the conflict. International experts have not confirmed

01:15the Ukrainian claim, but if verified it would mark a significant escalation in the conflict.

01:28Hits on industrial sites. Another thing that I think is worth stressing is that while the Russians

01:34have said about the storm shadow missiles that apparently were fired yesterday by Ukraine onto

01:39Russia's Kursk region, the Russians have said they shot down two of them. It sounds very much

01:44from the video that I've seen from the town where, or near where they hit, that 12 missiles were

01:50fired. And I think it does seem like the majority of those storm shadows were not intercepted by

01:55the Russians. That was Gulliver Craig reporting for us from the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv. And let's

02:02get a little more on this now. I'm pleased to say we're joined live by Gavin Hall. He's a teaching

02:07fellow in international security at the University of Strathclyde. Good afternoon to you. Thanks for

02:12joining us. Good afternoon. I'm pleased to be here. Look, we do need to tread cautiously here

02:18because there has been no independent confirmation that this was an intercontinental ballistic

02:23missile. However, no country in the world has fired such a missile in the context of a war before.

02:31So if confirmed, surely this is really significant, isn't it?

02:36Well, of course, you get the important caveat in straight away that obviously it's still

02:41developing and unfolding, and we're not quite sure of what has and hasn't been fired yet.

02:47If it is confirmed to be an ICBM, then it does raise a series of significant questions,

02:56not least because if an ICBM is to be fired, obviously they can be detected,

03:02then launched by the United States. And the general understanding is that if one was to be

03:09fired, then the US should have been provided with 24 hours notice in advance. Otherwise,

03:15the automatic assumption on America's behalf would be that it's a nuclear launch and it can

03:21respond accordingly. If that notification has been made, then it raises some issues as to whether

03:28there was any warning given from the Americans to Ukraine. If there wasn't any notification,

03:37then that tells us something about the nature of the US and Western allies and whether they

03:44deliberately chose not to respond to what they would have assumed would have been a nuclear

03:49launch, or it wasn't in fact an ICBM launch and therefore no notification was required at all.

03:57What looks like it's relatively possible is these discussions around the RS-26 Rubez missile,

04:06which meets the technical definition for being an ICBM as set out in the New START Treaty,

04:13though it has the capability to also operate at more intermediate ranges, which is part of the

04:19reason why Russia and the US eventually withdrew from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty,

04:26was because Russia was building weapons that had intermediate capability but effectively hiding it.

04:33So the sort of reports coming out that, oh, it was an ICBM, it wasn't an ICBM,

04:39get mixed up in the way that it could technically be, but could have been fired in a different

04:44manner. Go ahead, finish your thought.

04:49Yeah, I was just going to say, but overall, an ICBM being launched in a conventional capacity,

04:55yes, obviously it raises some of the fears and a potential upping of the stakes, but it shouldn't,

05:02I don't think, automatically seem to be making the conflict inherently more dangerous.

05:07It's the responses and how the escalation cycle gets managed from here out that's the

05:12real challenge rather than the actual specific weapon itself.

05:16It does come, though, at a sort of interesting moment, if I can put it like that, in the war.

05:21I mean, it was only earlier on this week that Russia updated its nuclear doctrine. There've

05:27been plenty more threats from Moscow towards Ukraine, towards Western allies as well.

05:33What kind of message do you think Russia is trying to send if indeed this is confirmed to be an ICBM?

05:42Well, the big message that Russia is trying to reconfirm is really to try and re-establish

05:49deterrence, i.e. trying to persuade Ukraine and its allies not to be targeting onto Russian soil,

05:58especially. Quite where everything goes from here and what level of response is actually

06:08available to Ukraine and its allies is a lot more questionable. They've already effectively

06:16unleashed their biggest response, which is the allowance of Storm Shadow and Atacams and things

06:24to be fired directly into Ukraine. What other options they have to

06:31reassert their authority in deterrence becomes a lot less clear.

06:38What where the issue creates a degree of confusion, if you like, is that how

06:47the impact, the potential impact of this weapon being launched. You don't just have to have a

06:54ICBM or a similar type of weapon to be able to carry a nuclear warhead. These can be fit onto

07:01cruise missiles and a variety of other things. However, the traditional understanding of an

07:05ICBM is that these are used solely for nuclear launch. So by choosing, if that is the case,

07:14to use an ICBM to launch a conventional weapon creates the situation whereby Ukraine and its

07:21allies, particularly the United States, could no longer be sure whether an ICBM launch is

07:27in fact a nuclear launch, which has a substantive impact on the whole concept and notion of

07:34deterrence. That's going to be the big challenge going forward is how an adaptation to this new

07:42scenario can be made. Just a final thought from you, you touched on the challenges for Ukraine

07:49now when it comes to a response given the weaponry that it's already using against Russia

07:56on Russian soil. Do you suspect that we will see in the days and weeks ahead Ukraine using more of

08:04this American and now we understand British weaponry deep inside Russia? Yeah, there's

08:12certainly no reason for them not to be using these weapons. They have them. They've been

08:18wanting authorization to use them for several months. That's now been granted. So I think all

08:25their targeting is on the equation. But one of the things to note about this overnight attack by

08:32Russia on Ukraine and to Dnipro is that it's reported to be launched for the Astrakhan region,

08:38which is at the northern end of the Caspian Sea. We should put the location around 800 kilometers

08:44away from Dnipro, which is sitting outside of the range of the Storm Shadow and Atacams missiles,

08:51which are about a 300 kilometer range. Therefore, Russia is also sending the message, even if you

08:57can shoot your nice Western weapons that you've got, we can still fire things at you that you

09:03can't touch. So you need to be playing ball here and we can then potentially see forward. You're

09:12not going to win this conflict. You should give in and give us what we want is the kind of

09:17underlying message I think is behind all of this. Gavin Hall, good to get your analysis. Thanks very

09:24much indeed, sir. Thank you.

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