00:00The other thing that brings people to the ballpark is a high level player at third base every single day. And the Chicago Cubs just did that. Again, Alex Bregman, five years, $175 million. We are going to save the Cub angle. We're going to save the Red Sox angle for a little bit later on in the show.
00:18So I want to start with Bregman, the guy. Alex Bregman has been as consistent a third baseman as we've had in Major League Baseball. Last four years, three of which with Houston and one with Boston. In 2022, this guy hit 260 with 23 homers and 93 driven in. In 2023 with Houston, 260, 25 homers, 98 driven in. In 24, 260, 26 homers. And in 2025, 273 with 18 homers and an 821 OPS.
00:46And it is 114 games with the Boston Red Sox. This guy has played in home ballparks that have been very conducive to him playing at his best, right?
00:56You've got the monster in left at Fenway. You've got the Crawford boxes in left at Minute Maid. Now Dyken Park in Houston, the home of the Houston Astros.
01:04This is a guy that's now going to test it a little bit. And we're two years removed from Isak Paredes testing it.
01:09That air pull, that right-handed bat going to Wrigley Field. But the Cubs feel like they got their everyday anchor at third base. And it's cool that the Cubs are pushing the chips forward here.
01:21What kind of player do you think the Cubs are getting in Bregman?
01:23I think they're getting a guy that's going to age well. And I think that's why they did it. You know, barring injury, right? And we'll see. In terms of aging well, like it's more just when he loses a little bit of that whip and that strength or that explosiveness, like how will the game be?
01:38Well, he's so fundamentally sound that he's always going to be a good defender at third base. His approach is so good that he's always going to get on base at a good clip.
01:45His back-to-ball is so good that he's always going to put the ball in play. And the thing with him is he may not tear the cover off of the ball, but he hits the ball more than hard enough.
01:54And I just don't see that going away because of how efficient and compact his swing is.
02:00So the other side is, I feel like people forget Bregman, like he's going to be 32 this coming season. It's not like he's 34.
02:05I do feel like he still has several years of, at least a couple of years of playing at near the peak of his powers.
02:12And then after that, he's still going to be a good value player in terms of war because of all those other complimentary factors.
02:18And I do really think that the injury affected him big time last year.
02:23And that was something that I wanted to make sure we harped on here.
02:25Like in the first 51 games of the season, Alex Bregman had a 938 OPS and had a hard hit rate of 48%.
02:34His 90th percentile exit velocity, which takes the top 10% of your batted balls, was 104 miles per hour, which with his peripherals all around that, that is more than enough to be a really productive player.
02:46He was out for two months, kind of rushed back.
02:48It was a bit of a push to get there with that significant quad injury.
02:52And it was his right quad.
02:53So think about it.
02:54That's your back leg that you're trying to get into.
02:56And he uses every ounce of his body, especially his base, to produce these frame-defying exit velocities and power.
03:03From that point forward, the contact rate and the approach was exactly the same, but the hard hit rate dropped to 42%, and the 90th percentile exit velocity dropped to 102 miles per hour, which tells me his peak exit velocities were just diminished because he couldn't get off that same swing.
03:20And I think the only thing that's going to stop him from being able to get that swing off is a significant quad injury, not age.
03:27And I do think that this is a guy that is going to play well, even if it's not as friendly of an environment as Fenway, because none of those things are impacted by Fenway.
03:36So I was going to ask you, in terms of Bregman, like, why you thought that this was a game that wasn't going to be affected by father time, and you made it clear it's injury.
03:47And, like, you look at what has happened over the last four years.
03:51I'll use that four-year sample again.
03:53Injuries are really not a part of his game.
03:55They were at the beginning of his career, right?
03:56He played 42 of the 60 games in 2020.
03:58He played 91 of the 162 in 2021, but then his games played 155, 161, 145, and then 114 with his quad issue now.
04:08So he's clearly durable.
04:10When you saw five for 175, did you have a knee-jerk reaction?
04:15Like, man, that's a lot of money, because that was my initial thought.
04:19I was kind of braced for it.
04:20Like, it definitely is a lot of money, but I feel like just after the last contract and then him opting out of it and what he flashed there,
04:26I guess we kind of figured it was going to be big, but from an AAV basis, it was definitely pretty crazy.
04:32I just thought we were going to get north of 150 one way or another there.
04:37I just thought maybe it would take an extra year to get there, but I think for the Cubs, especially with where they're at,
04:42I think they'd rather go a little bit shorter term and higher AAV, and it's exactly what they did.
04:47But, yeah, I think everybody had the same reaction, and it's the price to pay,
04:51but I think for a lot of teams here, they'd rather go for this, like, tier 1B, and I think that's not fair to Bregman,
04:58but a tier 1B player where you don't have to go seven years.
05:02I think that's why the Bellinger thing is going to take forever, as you guys talked about,
05:05because I think Bellinger is also tier 1B, and he wants seven years.
05:10Seven years plus is, like, reserved for the tier 1A guy.
05:14So, yeah, it was a lot of money, but I still think when you keep it under 200 for a guy of his caliber,
05:20I think you've got to feel pretty good about it.
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