Munutaka Murakami Signs $34M Deal with the White Sox

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00:00I want to talk about Munitaka Murakami now.

00:02Munitaka Murakami just got a two-year, $34 million contract with the Chicago White Sox.

00:08Munitaka Murakami, who has the MPB single-season record for home runs in a given year.

00:14Murakami, who was the hero for Team Japan at points.

00:17He had that, what, game-tying double or walk-off double against Mexico in the World Baseball Classic

00:22and then homered against Merrill Kelly in the World Baseball Classic Championship game

00:26after Murakami was the hero in the semifinal against Mexico.

00:30So, number one, the White Sox fit is fascinating to me.

00:33And the White Sox, like, positioning themselves to make this push for Murakami is interesting.

00:38But it's the number.

00:40It's the total money allocated to Murakami that I think has everybody with their jaw on the floor.

00:45A year ago, we were talking about this guy maybe getting $200 million.

00:49And then when everyone does the dive, they realize, oh, there's some serious swing and miss here.

00:53Oh, there could be some serious end-zone whiff concerns here.

00:56But when you saw two for $35 million, and I know that you understood those end-zone whiff issues

01:03and those overall swing and miss issues and, you know, maybe the velocity issues as well,

01:07were you not stunned that it was only two for $34 million?

01:11I was stunned at that number.

01:14I think we became more aware of the idea that it was going to go down, down, down, you know,

01:20and, like, that it may be less than $100 million.

01:23But I thought he'd get Yoshida money.

01:27So, you know, I was surprised.

01:29That said, I understand it.

01:31Because the thought exercise I took myself down was, well, how much would I be willing to pay for this?

01:38It's probably a little dehumanizing to say this, but, like, this experiment.

01:42It's an experiment.

01:43Like, basically, we have – and it's almost like this is something that, like,

01:49if you were teaching a scouting course, you would use this as an example that was, like,

01:53almost entirely unrealistic.

01:54You have a guy who could potentially be, like, a 20-hit tool and is, without a doubt, 80 power,

02:02but has proof of success at a highly, like, level league, maybe the next best league that we have,

02:08but it's still a big enough gap to where you can't really rest on the quote-unquote track record.

02:14And the trend has been downward, yet he's young, so you still hope that the trend can go back upwards.

02:22There's so many push-pull variables in this whole conversation that it becomes, like, this brain teaser that, like,

02:33again, if I was, like, teaching a scouting course, I would, like, present as, like, figure this out,

02:37and there's no right answer.

02:39So how much are you willing to pay to partake in that puzzle?

02:43And I think a lot of teams started to get concerned that, look, I think he could be worth it,

02:48but I'm not willing to risk the downside.

02:51And I also think when it comes to international free agents,

02:53I do think a lot of teams are just afraid to have that stigma of signing the wrong one.

02:58And I wonder if that spooked teams a little bit, too.

03:00Because if you look at precedent, there is no hitter in Major League Baseball,

03:06with the zone contact rate, really, that we saw from Murakami in NPB last year.

03:13So even if he matched it, which almost never happens, you're going to whiff more in the big leagues,

03:18even if he matched that zone contact rate, it would still take a combination of things happening perfectly

03:25for him to be, you know, an above-average hitter.

03:27So you're betting, if you're the White Sox, on him making a big step forward,

03:30but the downside now is so limited at that number, it was a no-brainer for the Sox.

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