00:00AccuWeather's 2026 severe weather forecast is in. The big question, what areas are at risk?
00:05Well, we're going to see severe weather this spring season from the plains to the Mississippi
00:09Valley and Tennessee Valleys up into the Midwest. Now, the question everyone's asking,
00:14what's that timing going to look like? What's the highest risk? Well, for timing, I think the
00:19severe weather is going to focus in the Mississippi and the Tennessee Valleys as well as portions of
00:23the Midwest early in the season. Now, our long-range forecasting team is analyzing a pattern
00:28where, as La Nina continues to fade, we're going to see a shift of severe weather back into the
00:33plains by the time we get to around May. 2025 saw an active tornado season. How is this year going
00:39to
00:40compare? Well, last season in March, April, and May, seeing over 300-plus tornado reports in all of those
00:45months, a very extraordinary active season. This year, the pattern that we're analyzing through our
00:50analog years and through looking at model data, we actually believe that this season we're going to
00:55see less tornadoes closer to the historical average compared to what we saw last year.
01:00Now, what's going to be the factors that are at play this season? We're going to be looking at
01:04that cooler air in the northern tier of the nation, in the upper Midwest, in the northern plains.
01:09This cooler air can hold back severe weather early for some of these places in the north.
01:14Now, we're also going to be seeing gulf temperatures that are well above average, and that's going to help
01:19moisture get into the central states. That will lead to fueling of severe thunderstorms through this season.
01:25Now, we're going to be seeing gulf today.
01:25So now our next system is going to wind up another 2, 3, 4, 6, 5, 7, 8, 9, 9,
01:259, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 11, 8, 9, 9, 9, 9, 10.
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