Is Cody Bellinger worth giving a long-term deal from the Yankees? | Pinstripe Post - video Dailymotion

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00:00The big question that remains here for this Yankees offseason to start is

00:04what do they do with Cody Bellinger?

00:05Because I think there is a huge variance of what does he get long-term?

00:12Are there a lot of other teams in the bidding for Cody Bellinger?

00:14Are the Yankees just bidding against themselves at a certain point?

00:18But also at the same time, what's the cost for a guy who's going to be 30?

00:23And I don't know, Joel.

00:24I get concerned when you start getting into the five, six, seven-year deals

00:28for a guy who's going to be 30 years old and has dealt with back injuries before.

00:32We've seen him miss games this year with nursing a back injury.

00:36And I know he has the position versatility,

00:39but there becomes a certain point in time where his athleticism will decline.

00:43It just happens when you hit your 30s.

00:45You're not the same athlete as you were in your 20s.

00:49I get concerned that the Yankees are going to tie themselves up

00:51into another DJ LeMay-like contract with a Cody Bellinger.

00:54Could you potentially see them trying to negotiate less years

00:59with more AAV for a Cody Bellinger return?

01:03Yeah, you're asking all the right questions, I think, Ryan.

01:06And yet I feel like even if you're a Yankee fan who feels that way, as you are,

01:12the day he signs for six years someplace else, the feeling will be,

01:17ah, they blew it, right?

01:18Like if he does it, maybe not for you, but like that generalized, ah, hell again.

01:22I think there's a very strong market for Cody Bellinger.

01:28He's a very talented player, but there is, and I wrote about this over the weekend,

01:33there is question about what that means.

01:37I think you know this because in shows at this time last year,

01:41I was screaming, the Yankees got to go get Cody Bellinger in a trade.

01:45I loved Cody Bellinger.

01:47Then I watched him play for a year and I like it even more.

01:50Like I think he has got five tools and I think that the most important thing

01:55that comes with five tools is knowing how to use them

01:57because you have a high baseball IQ, pretty good motor, get on the field.

02:02Like he was everything you want.

02:06And in a way, if he goes, you've now replicated Soto, right?

02:10You traded for Soto, had him for a year, had great results, let him go.

02:13You had Bellinger you traded for.

02:15Or are you going to let him walk out, maybe also to the Mets for all we know?

02:20If they don't really self-center field down to our first base,

02:24he's a guy who could go there, which would be incredible.

02:27Again, considering what used to be the Wilponian way of doing things

02:32is that that guy would walk out the door.

02:34The question on Bellinger that comes up over and over and over again, Ryan,

02:39is about volatility of result.

02:41Like if you go to his war, there's highs and lows and highs and lows.

02:48And last year was a high again.

02:50And that volatility, I went and I wrote about this if you saw it,

02:55is if you try to find somebody like that, it's a lot like Jacoby Ellsbury,

02:59who also was a free agent after age 29.

03:03Go look at Jacoby Ellsbury.

03:05There's six war.

03:06There's two war.

03:07There's five something war.

03:09There's one something.

03:10And it was bounce, bounce, strong year.

03:12The Yankees signed him for seven at 153.

03:14And as we know, that was a disaster.

03:16Now, I don't think Cody Bellinger, I think Cody Bellinger loves baseball.

03:20I didn't think Jacoby Ellsbury loved baseball.

03:22And I would not give long-term money to somebody who doesn't burn to play.

03:26That's a mistake.

03:27And I think he burns to play.

03:29It's one of the questions I wonder about Kyle Tucker.

03:31Does Kyle Tucker burn to play?

03:33I know Cody Bellinger burns to play.

03:35I think there's some questions about the motor and the desires on somebody like Tucker

03:40that have been expressed to me by organizations.

03:44But Bellinger's also played in the three largest markets you can play in,

03:49Chicago at Los Angeles and New York.

03:51We know that's not going to bother him.

03:52He's excelled in all three places.

03:54I love the player.

03:55Um, I would stretch somewhat for him, but the stretch mean five at one 10 or the stretch

04:05mean seven at two 10, like that's a hundred million dollar Delta.

04:10And you could tell me like, I, I just did this on one of the videos we did Ryan for the

04:17post.

04:18One of the things that an executive said to me recently, and it's been talked about before

04:23with me as I love the saying is you never know who finishes second for a player.

04:27Like it doesn't matter if everyone offers five at one 10, that's the generally accepted

04:32number for Cody Bellinger.

04:33If someone offers seven to two 10, that's what wins.

04:37And it doesn't matter that the, well, the Yankees kind of got it right in the sense that

04:42everyone was in this place and one team decided we have to have them, or we don't really,

04:47we don't know how to read the market.

04:49Like most people I talk to think Pete Alonzo will be kept to three or four years.

04:54If some team out there says I need Pete Alonzo and gives them six years, then that we'll

05:00never know who finished second, right?

05:02That will be the only thing that matters.

05:04They're both Scott Boris clients.

05:06Boris has already gotten more first, like Dylan cease than I saw coming, even with deferrals.

05:11It was a larger deal than I saw there's.

05:14And there's been a lot of times over the years where that like Scott knows how to play the

05:18market and it only takes one.

05:21It only takes one.

05:22It doesn't matter what consensus is.

05:25What matters is, is there a team out there that looks at Cody Bellinger and says, I don't

05:30see fluctuation.

05:31I see a guy who's gotten married, who's matured, who since he was gone to Chicago has been a really

05:39exceptional player again, maybe not MVP 2019 Dodger, Cody Bellinger, but a really good player.

05:45I think that, and I would extend a little for it, but I understand the trepidation in the

05:52industry, the LeMayu trepidation in the industry about like age and athleticism and fluctuating

06:01previous stuff.

06:02He does have a somewhat complicated swing, so I get it.

06:08I happen to really appreciate this player, right?

06:12You're willing to look past those, let's say volatility and what could be uncertain, but

06:19for the player you believe in that, like, Hey, I believe in his, I believe in what he, his

06:23process is, what his results are currently.

06:26Like, I believe that player can still be valuable for you.

06:29So I would think of it like this, Ryan, what do I think his floor is for the next five

06:36years?

06:36I think his floor is, I don't think he's that guy who the Dodgers decided to non-tender.

06:43I think that was a different guy emotionally.

06:44I think it was a different guy physically.

06:47I think this player has got it going on now in his life and how he approaches baseball.

06:53He went to a hitting factory last year that really seemed to help him, a place in Atlanta.

06:58Um, he seems much more stable, married, child, et cetera, off the field.

07:04So I think the floor is say like a two win player, which is if you think a win is worth

07:13like eight to $10 million, it should be 16 to 20 a year.

07:17And I think he's probably got a chance in the next five years to have multiple four or

07:22five win seasons.

07:24So is the, if the number is in the 20 to 25 area for five or six years, I think that's

07:33a legit deal for the guy.

07:34Okay.

07:35I do.

07:36Um, but I understand the trepidation and the one breadcrumb.

07:42Um, and there's not many that are dropped these days around here is Brian Cashman did

07:47mention that the team has gotten very left-handed.

07:49I was going to follow up with this.

07:51So does the Trent Grisham qualifying offer 22 million?

07:55Does that make the Yankees like say, you know what?

07:58Bellinger, we love you, but like we are extremely left-handed now with that.

08:02Trent Grisham is coming back on a one-year deal.

08:04And we do have Dominguez who's a switch hitting outfielder, but judges, the righty, it's McMahon,

08:09it's jazz, it's, it's Ben Rice, Austin Wells.

08:13Like it's a lot of left-handed hitters in this lineup.

08:15I know he, he acknowledged he needs to get balance.

08:18Does Bellinger provide balance, even though he does hit left on left, which is a key quality.

08:23I think you really, really like again, like everything you could like about a baseball

08:26player, Cody Bellinger showed last year, like not afraid of a big moment, hit left on

08:31left.

08:32You know, he was really good.

08:33Again, I would extend a little for him.

08:35I don't think it was just the walkier magic thing, but hypothetically, if you were thinking,

08:41what does Cody Bellinger like, look like?

08:43It probably looks a lot like Steven Kwan.

08:46Like, like, is that the kind of player you could trade for in this marketplace?

08:50And he suddenly is such an obvious leadoff hitter.

08:54He's arguably even a better left field defender than Bellinger.

08:59And Bellinger was the best the Yankees have had by a lot since Brett Gardner.

09:02Yeah.

09:03So like, like you get those two qualities, you lose some power.

09:08The cost in dollars, though, he's a, you're going to have to give up real stuff if you're

09:14going to get Kwan.

09:14But like that kind of player, if that's the next step down to it, but he's left-handed

09:22also.

09:22He's also left-handed, which is why I find it curious.

09:24So are they telling us that it's a righty bat?

09:27And if you start playing that game and you start playing, hey, they'd like to go in the

09:34season, they've been, for luxury tax purposes, I think between like 315 and 320 the last two

09:42seasons, which means you want to go into the season projected at about 310.

09:47So in July, you could get to 315 with some more trades.

09:53It would mean they have, as of this moment, let's say they were willing to go to 310.

10:01It's about 25 to 30 million maybe to spend still.

10:06Now, could they trade Luis Hill?

10:09Maybe.

10:09Could they trade Jazz?

10:11Me.

10:12Maybe.

10:12Could they trade Camilo Duvall?

10:15Maybe.

10:15Those are all guys who make some money and they could, therefore, but the moment you trade

10:19one of those guys, like you trade Jazz, you need a second base.

10:22Yeah, you need a second base.

10:22You know, you trade Hill at a point where you don't know who your April rotation is already

10:26with Rodon and Koldown.

10:29You have what?

10:30If you trade Duvall, you're still going to need more guys.

10:33You already need more guys to pitch the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings in front of Bednar.

10:37So, if you got 30 to spend, it would be hard to do 25 on Bellinger.

10:44And then also feel like we're going to get relievers.

10:47So, are they telling us, and again, I'm just making up names here.

10:50I just want to always be clear that I, like, the Yankees are not handing out pieces of paper.

10:55These are things.

10:56But, like, are they like, hey, can we sign back Ahmad Rosario to help us with a righty

11:01bat in the infield?

11:03Go look at his track record.

11:04He's going to hit lefties almost as well as anyone in the sport who's not, like, judge,

11:09et cetera.

11:09He's in that next tier down.

11:11And Lane Thomas kind of player.

11:14None of it will cost you a lot.

11:16They're both.

11:17Now, Lane Thomas was hurt last year, and he could be shot.

11:21He's a player I like a lot, so I bring it up.

11:23But based on last year, he was dealing with plantar fasciitis, and he was a bad baseball

11:28player last year.

11:29But if you think that's a correctable thing, and there's still a lot there, you're like,

11:34hey, can we do Rosario and, like, Lane Thomas?

11:37I'm just using two names.

11:38Yeah, yeah.

11:38I feel like two extra right-hand bats.

11:42And because we believe, we believe, we have Aaron Judge, we have John Carlos Stanton, we

11:49have Jazz Chisholm, we have Austin Wells, who we think it will hit 2,500, we have Ben

11:54Rice, who we think might be a version of Kyle Schwarber-Light, who's about to play first

11:58base.

11:59We don't need necessarily, like, look at the Blue Jay model that actually beat them in

12:04both the AL East and in the playoffs last year.

12:07It was a lot of David Schneider, Addison Barger, Ernie Clement, really good players who were

12:14doing it around one real superstar in Guerrero.

12:18Yep.

12:19So, like, can you make the group long and talented in that way as a positional group?

12:26I think that is possible and that they're just seeing on Bellinger.

12:33I think the Yankees are in wait and see and say, hey, if it is 5 at 110, yes.

12:40But if it's closer to 7 at 210, no.

12:43And now we're going to plan B, which is maybe Kwan or a couple of really good supplementary

12:50righty bats around what are already entrenched stars.

12:53I would think that's, again, I'm not in their room.

12:57I don't see their dry board.

12:58But I've covered the team a long time, and I know that this group has got a plan A and

13:05a B and a C and a D.

13:08And then it's like, okay, now we haven't spent a lot of money on two position players.

13:13Who's the really good reliever?

13:16Like, can we take something and go trade?

13:20We could trade a little more.

13:21Trade with Kansas City for Carlos Estevez, who makes like $12 million.

13:24Like, now we could do that because we're in some place in plan G or H or I are all kinds

13:32of stuff.

13:33I do think plan A is Cody Bellinger, but at their price.

Is Cody Bellinger worth giving a long-term deal from the Yankees? | Pinstripe Post

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