Insightful Analysis of Upcoming Horse Race Strategies

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00:00right now. We have to make some money. Alexa, we have to pad the bankroll for

00:03next week. So we've got tons of ammo and we'll get started in the Fayette.

00:07Let's go horse by horse in here with the number one trademark who has had

00:10some set some success at Keelan before, but has just been not in the best of

00:14form right now. I just need to see more before I want to use this one. Yeah,

00:19he looks like he peaked in his four year old year and now his five year

00:22old years just been declining. He had an incredible career. I mean, one over

00:25a million dollars. But to me, it just looks like he's kind of in need of a

00:29class release at this point. So I'm not sure if this is the right spot for

00:33him. The number two is a major player in here. This is a horse named Tumba

00:36Rumba, who is a fighter. You can look at his past performances. He runs

00:40second a lot of the times, but even when he does, he fights you. He doesn't

00:44want to back down. And in this race, Alexa, as the time form U. S. Pace

00:48projector shows us, there is not a lot of early speed. He might be right on

00:52the front end in here and tough to catch. I like Tumba Rumba a lot. His

00:56name and what he does, you know, he's so consistent. He's hit the board 13

01:01out of 16 lifetime starts gotten first or second in every start this year.

01:05Four of those were graded stakes races, so he has been facing similarly

01:10difficult competition. Like you said, he likes to be honored near the lead

01:14and will likely be the leader in this field. This is a little bit longer

01:17distance than he's run this year, so it'll be a little bit of a test. But

01:22this is a pretty competitive race, in my opinion, and the favorite in here is

01:26a closer and any time the favorite, um, is a closer in a in a full and

01:32competitive field. I'd like to see if I can beat him with a little bit better

01:35of a price because they're, you know, gonna potentially face traffic and

01:39other issues. So it makes him vulnerable with their running style in a big

01:43field where there could be a lot of different variables happening. Let's

01:46move to the next one. Uno Moss Bourbon. When we're hanging out with producers,

01:50Mike and Rich next week, this is what I'm gonna be saying. Uno Moss Bourbon

01:53for me. Now, I'm not sure if Uno Moss Bourbon fits in this particular spot,

01:57though. Coming off that Super Derby win will need to step up and show a little

02:01bit better here. Yeah, he's never gone up against graded six company. I'm

02:05excited for him for this race for experience and learning because I think

02:10he's a bright future, but I think I'll just gain a lot of experience here. But

02:14I don't like him to win a horse who could outrun their odds and maybe hit

02:18the board in here and spice some things up his war campaign. Because as we

02:22continue to talk about a race that doesn't have that much early speed,

02:25this guy could project to be in a nice spot. He could be sitting like third or

02:28fourth in here, not too far out of it. Yeah, he's one of those grinders, you

02:32know, likes to be forwardly placed and, um, it's a bit more early speed than

02:36late speed. But for the most part, just kind of sustains that pace throughout

02:39the whole race. So, um, could be a good spot for him. One of the longer shots

02:43in here is Bullsey, who comes off of a disappointing effort in back to back

02:47graded stakes races. So another one who probably will just need to step up and

02:51run better than we've seen from him. Yeah, he ran against a few of these

02:54same foes in the grade to Lucas Classic at Churchill in September and didn't

02:59perform well that day, which could have been the slop or the fact that he was

03:02coming off seven months of rest. But even with all of that, his absolute

03:05best ever that we've seen is just not quite good enough. Rattle and roll, I

03:09think, is one of the strong closers in this race. He's going to be sitting way

03:13back. He's going to be launching. But because of that running style, he'll

03:16probably need a little bit of help up front. Alexa, right? He needs them to go

03:20really fast and set it up for him to come running late. So while I do

03:24respect his ability and with if everything were to shape up from him, he

03:27certainly could jump up and win this race. I just don't know if this race is

03:31going to shape up for him. So I use him more of like an under horse in here.

03:35Yeah, I like him. You know, we had, uh, he ran in the Lucas Classic last out

03:40and then his last out prior to that was the Lucas Classic last year. So we have

03:44an entire year off. Um, and so I think he's likely to improve off of this

03:49start after that long break. And he's a little bit of a closer in the race.

03:53And I know there's not a ton of pace, but I still like them in here. Yeah,

03:55I think just one of the stronger horses that will be moving late. And as you

03:59pointed out, second start back off that long, long layoff, he should take a

04:02nice step forward. Heroic move is the next one. And this is a graded stakes

04:06winner who is coming off of a runner up effort was behind hit show, though. So

04:10we will have to turn the tables on the major, major rival in this race hit show

04:15who will probably go off favorite. Yeah, exactly. Ran behind hit show. And

04:20then he also that same race. We talked about another horse in there. One of

04:25our shows a couple weeks ago. Comora vino. Omeo Day. Yeah, there you go. We

04:31both liked him a lot of McKinley and he disappointed. So other than hit show,

04:35there really hasn't been a whole lot of anything impressive coming out of that

04:39race. So despite the strong performance, I think today's gonna be a lot tougher

04:43the aforementioned hit show is the number eight, and he's a horse who was

04:47good at three. It was just a cut below. He ran in the Belmont. He was fourth.

04:51He was in the Jim Dandy. He was fifth in the Kentucky Derby. So we're talking

04:54about nice races where he's just behind the top top three year olds. They gave

04:59him some time off. He showed back up at four, and he's been three for four this

05:03year, including a couple of graded stakes races. He feels like the horse

05:06to beat in this race. Yeah, he's absolutely a valid favorite. You know,

05:10one both the West Virginia Governor stakes and the Lucas Classic that we've

05:13just mentioned with some of these same competitors in this year, and he just

05:17looks to me like he's in his prime. Um, always a major player. Now again, a

05:22closer. So he's gonna be tough. I'm gonna try to beat him, but he'll be a

05:27factor. One horse who I think is interesting at a bit of a price is the

05:30number nine Grand Aspen. I was trying to sell you on this horse a little bit

05:33when we were talking yesterday, mainly because I respect hit show a lot. I

05:38respect Humber Rumba, but the rest of the field, I think, is kind of

05:41unproven, or they're kind of in and out of form. They're not really all that

05:44consistent. And in this race where there's not that much early speed, I

05:48think Grand Aspen might be able to just sit in a good spot and and, you know,

05:52go on with it and maybe have a nice share of this race. So I'll throw him

05:55in Alexa a bit of a price in here. Yeah, you tried to convince me. I took

06:00another look at him. Um, he's had one race in his career that makes me think,

06:04okay, if he did that again, he could belong, and he has a really fast

06:07workout coming into this race. But other than that, I don't know if I can

06:12get on board with the Gino. So there's a big price here that I'll be using.

06:15Let's round out the field. Alexa with howling time here. Howling time comes

06:19in off a third place effort was behind war campaign, though, so we'll at least

06:23need to improve on that rival in here. Yeah, it's a nice horse. You know, they

06:27bought him for 65 grand. He's one over 400 grand, an absolute success story.

06:32But I'm afraid he'll be outmatched in this field. He just really simply

06:35hasn't run fast enough so far in his career to be a real threat. Let's take

06:40a look at selections. Alexa, I'm gonna go with the nine on top just based on

06:44value. I went 9826 and you're gonna go with the speed of Tumba Rumba. Yeah,

06:49I'm also gonna play a little bit more of a price on top. Try to beat this

06:52favorite with some Rumba. But as you can see, we both do have the favorite

06:56hit show in the top two.

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