'There isn't peace in Eastern Congo: M23, Congolese army exchanging hostilities'

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00:00Well, let's speak now live on the programme to Alex Vines, who is the Africa Programme

00:06Director at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Welcome to you. Thanks for joining

00:10us. Can you hear me, sir? We had a little interruption on the line there.

00:19Yeah, everything's fine.

00:20Great. So as we heard there from Emmett, from our correspondent, actually, a deal was already

00:26signed between the foreign ministers of Rwanda and DR Congo back in June. So how much of

00:31a difference, if any, do you think the signing today will make?

00:35Well, this is ceremonial, but you do have the heads of state. So you have President Tesshikedi

00:39and President Kagami of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and President Kagami of Rwanda.

00:44So that's important. I mean, a year ago, both these gentlemen wouldn't be talking to each

00:49other at all, certainly not being in the same room. So this is a step forward.

00:55But as your correspondent in Kinshasa reflected, they're still fighting in eastern Congo. M23

01:04and the Congolese army are exchanging hostilities right at the moment. And so there isn't peace

01:10in eastern Congo. And we'll have to see whether the leaders can command the M23 forces in terms

01:21of Rwanda. And the Kinshasa government certainly will tell its forces to stop. So there's a lot more

01:28going, I think, that needs to take place before we can say that this is a lasting peace agreement.

01:34Yeah. And you said that such a meeting between Kagami and Tesshikedi a year ago would have been

01:40unthinkable, really. How much credit do you give to the US President Donald Trump himself for

01:46getting us this far?

01:50Yes, I mean, I think we have to credit the United States for knocking heads together. I mean, look,

01:55there's been lengthy processes involving the neighbours. There was a Rwanda process led by President

02:00Lorenzo, Joel Lorenzo of Angola. There was a Nairobi process led by the Kenyans. But nobody in Congo

02:09trusted the neighbours. They have carried their own agendas. So Mr. Trump, but also the Qataris,

02:15have played an important role here, I think, in providing at least some trust to bring together the

02:23heads of state of the DRC in Rwanda. So it is a step forward. But whether this can last, I don't know. I

02:30mean, the package you had before having me speaking talked about had Congolese civil society talking

02:36about the importance of inclusive dialogue. And so this needs to be more than just an elite bargain.

02:44It needs also to have depth to it, I think, to be lasting. And indeed, the Qataris are still

02:49negotiating an agreement with M23 that has not been signed, the rebel group that many allege is

02:58supported by Rwanda. Indeed, I was going to ask you about that because M23, of course, not attending

03:04this signing ceremony today at the White House. Do they need to be party to an agreement for anything

03:12to tangibly change on the ground? Well, M23 are in control of very significant mining assets that bring

03:21in millions of dollars a week to them. So the prize is also about money. There are a lot of people

03:28talking about M23 being a puppet of Rwanda. But there's also the question, Mark, that are they

03:37developing their own autonomy? Are they building up their own economy? And how enthusiastic would they be

03:45to lose significant revenue streams if the Congolese government was provided access again to the

03:53mining assets that they currently control? You know, and as you've just alluded to there,

03:58there is clearly an economic aspect to this deal. What we will see today in Washington will open up

04:06access to the region's critical minerals for American companies as well. Can you just spell out for us

04:13why it is that that's part of this peace agreement at all? Well, look, the American Department of State

04:21itself has given a figure to the mineral wealth of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. $25 trillion

04:33is the estimate of the US of the minerals that are in the DRC. So that's the prize for the

04:39for the Trump administration. And you can already see US companies looking to buy up Australian and

04:47Canadian mining assets or going into joint joint ventures at them. So this is a geopolitical

04:52competition to access strategic critical minerals, rare earths out of the Democratic Republic of Congo for

04:59supply chains that go back to the United States. Thank you very much indeed. Dr. Alex Vines talking to us there.

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