00:00First, it's been a year since Bashar al-Assad, Syria's dictator, fled his presidential palace
00:18in the middle of the night and took flight to Russia, confirming that his family's half-century
00:24grip over the country was done. It was a downfall that had seemed unthinkable even days before.
00:31His regime had brutally crushed a civilian uprising and held steady during more than a
00:37decade of civil war. Today, exactly 12 months on from that momentous time, despite enormous
00:45challenges, Syrians are celebrating. Those are live pictures we're showing you from Damascus,
00:51the Syrian capital today. Now, France 24's Dana al-Boz is in Damascus for us, and she spoke
00:58to my colleague a little earlier about the atmosphere there.
01:03I am standing here in Omayyad, a place in the heart of Damascus, where thousands of Syrians
01:09came here today to gather and to celebrate this day, to commemorate the anniversary of
01:14the fall of the Assad regime. A lot of joy and happiness around me. We can see women and
01:21children and men who came from all around Syria. I have been able as well to speak to Syrians
01:26who came from abroad as well. A lot of joy now happening. Some people and some Syrians,
01:32some children, especially, they painted the Syrian flag on their faces. Some other Syrians
01:39were as well talking and saying that we are celebrating this day here today. Even though we have a lot of challenges,
01:48we are talking about a very difficult economical situation and as well a political situation,
01:53a lot of challenges for Syrians and for authorities as well.
01:57That was our correspondent Dana al-Boz. She's in Damascus today. Well, let's speak on the program live as well to
02:05Nana Hawa. She's a Syria analyst at the International Crisis Group. He joins us from Abu Dhabi, I believe.
02:14Thank you for speaking to us today on the program. Thank you for having me.
02:20Look, we will come to the future of Syria in a moment. The immense challenges that lie ahead. But first, look,
02:27as somebody who watches Syria very closely, just take us back to a year ago, December the 8th, 2024.
02:36How you felt then watching those extraordinary images out of Syria? And what is it that really stays with you from that time?
02:48Well, a year ago, I, me and Syrians, all Syrians witnessed the impossible. After 54 years, the Assad dynasty finally fell.
03:00That moment really brought euphoria. People suddenly felt that they could speak, organize, and imagine a different future.
03:10You had prisons emptied, millions of Syrians that were denied to go back to their homes. Now they have the opportunity to see their homes.
03:20Yes, so an emotional moment for you as an analyst and as a Syrian yourself. Let's talk about your, well, Syria's new leader then, a year in, Ahmed al-Sharah.
03:32It's been said before, but really, his transformation is extraordinary. It is staggering. He used to run the Al-Nusra Front, an organization, part effectively of Al-Qaeda.
03:47And it was just last month he was there shaking hands with the US president who seemed to take rather warmly to him.
03:52Tell me a bit of your thoughts on the transformation of Al-Sharah and specifically on how you would characterize his relations now with the US president.
04:06Yeah, I mean, Al-Sharah's achievements and transformation and what he accomplished last year has been extraordinary when it comes to the diplomatic turnaround for him and for Syria.
04:28I mean, a year ago, as you said, Shahar was a wanted man with a US bounty on his head.
04:34Today, he's welcomed to the White House, something that no Syrian president has done before.
04:41So sanctions were lifted, Gulf states pledged billions, and Syria even joined the coalition against ISIS.
04:52It was a calculated move by the Syrian government.
04:56They basically gave the West what they wanted on critical files like Iran and ISIS.
05:03And in return, they got a lifeline.
05:06For a nation that needs to rebuild from scratch, that trade-off was a major win.
05:11And let's talk about how Shahar is seen within Syria today, because as I say, on the world stage, as you've said as well, you know, he has ingratiated himself with leaders in Europe and in the United States.
05:27But at home, how much trust do you think Syrians have that he can deliver at this profoundly complicated time with even the territorial integrity of Syria now actually in doubt?
05:42Yeah. So, Shahar won over the world, right?
05:50But he has yet to win over all Syrians.
05:54At home, the road has been rocky.
05:57Attempts to impose order have been severe, resulting in loss of life in the South and on the coast.
06:06As a result, you have minority communities that feel exposed and without state protection.
06:14Also, there's no clear roadmap of how political life will open up.
06:22When parties, when will they form or be allowed to form?
06:28How will different communities be represented?
06:31It's unclear.
06:33These questions remain unanswered or remain unanswered.
06:39And that uncertainty or uncertainty is creating or increasing or adding to the feeling of anxiety and feeding into anxiety.
06:50So, I would say to summarize between what he did abroad and what he did internally, that basically the international breakthrough was a first step.
07:04Bringing the same momentum to the domestic front is the challenge for the next year ahead.
07:11Indeed. And, you know, Syria is deeply divided.
07:15We have Druze in the South of Syria, some of whom are allied with Israel.
07:20We have Kurds in the North who long have wanted their own state.
07:24You have Alawites on the coast, the minority group that Bashar al-Assad's family came from.
07:30They fear some reprisals now from those affiliated with this government.
07:35On that, can Ahmed al-Shara hold Syria together now, do you think?
07:41It is a major challenge.
07:48Basically, taking a step back, he needs to turn the end of Assad's rule into a real transition.
07:56The end of Assad's rule needs to be not the end, but really the beginning.
08:02This means building security that people can trust, involving more communities in decision-making, and showing clearly what kind of state Syria is.
08:15And as you mentioned, there's also the Kurdish question, which is one quarter of the country and most of Syria's resources.
08:22Those talks between Kurdish-led Syrian democratic forces, SDF, and the Syrian government are stuck.
08:30And if they fail, this will risk a new cycle of violence or drag in Syria into conflict all over again.
08:39Can you just end for us by, we're a year on from the fall of the Assad regime.
08:47Give us an optimistic picture, perhaps, of where we might be a year from now, if Ahmed al-Shara is able to hold Syria together.
08:55What might we be seeing?
08:56How could Syria look?
08:57How could Syria look?
09:28Towards two Syrians internally.
09:31So for next year, if Ashara applies and fulfills his promises, then it is going to be the fairytale, let's say, that Syrians have hoped for.
09:46Nana Hawash speaking to us from the International Crisis Group.
09:50He's in Dubai.
09:51Thank you very much.
09:52Indeed.
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