Trump business for security deal 'effectively rewards Rwanda for invading, occupying, looting Congo'

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00:00Meanwhile, let's stay in DC because over the next few hours, President Trump will be back

00:04in the Oval Office. He's organised for a moment with the press as he oversees the signing

00:08of a peace deal between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, which has been brokered

00:13by Qatar and the US. As we speak, the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is said to be involved

00:18in a meet and greet with the foreign ministers of both countries. What we know is a draft

00:23agreement has been agreed by President Dishikedi of the DRC and President Paul Kagame of Rwanda.

00:28It includes provisions to respect and to end hostilities. There's been a series of long

00:34running conflicts in the eastern DRC, an area rich in natural resources and rare earth minerals,

00:39with two major wars fought since the 90s and the current conflict reignited in 2022, with

00:45Rwanda accused of arming, supporting M23 rebel group there, which has seized early this year,

00:50seizing the north and south, the capitals of Kivu, Goma and Bukavu at the start of this year.

00:57Well, the UN reporting that between 900 to 2,000 people were killed during the offensive

01:01in Goma alone. Hundreds of thousands were displaced. Let's cross to London. Let's bring

01:06in the journalist Michaela Rong, who's covered African affairs for more than three decades,

01:11author of several books on politics in the continent, including Rwanda in Do Not Disturb,

01:17the story of a political murder and an African regime gone mad. Michaela is with us. She's also

01:21the recipient of the James Cameron Prize for journalism for, quote, combined moral vision

01:26and professional integrity. Welcome back to France 24, Michaela. And as we await on a day

01:31of breaking news from the White House, a photo opportunity moment, smiles, handshakes. Take

01:37us behind the scenes, the reality of what's going on here, what this peace deal means.

01:44Well, I think everyone is hoping that this peace deal will hold, because effectively what people

01:49would say is there is no other deal on the table. There's no other game in town. But there are great

01:55concerns about whether or not it's going to have a real impact on events on the ground. As you said,

02:03that area, that part of Congo has been troubled for decades. But the latest iteration dates back to

02:11November 2021, when we saw the M23 rebel movement backed by Rwanda, gobbling up Congolese territory.

02:19And they now hold the two provinces of South and North Kivu. And this peace deal, there was both sides,

02:27both countries signed a declaration of an agreement on a declaration of principles back in April.

02:33And it's good to know that their foreign ministers are in town, because there were some worries that

02:40they might not even turn up. One side wouldn't turn up on the day. There have been problems getting

02:46the parties to the table. But I think what a lot of people are concerned about is the lack of detail

02:52about this deal. You know, does it really take us any further? It's supposed to be a business for

02:59security deal. So America is acting, playing the role of good broker. And it is saying, if you sign a

03:06deal, if both countries sign a deal, we can guarantee that US companies will go in and they will invest in

03:11both countries, in the mining sector, both countries. Congo, as everyone knows, is very, very rich in

03:17strategic minerals are of enormous importance to the modern world as we try and keep producing new

03:24laptops and new electrical vehicles, and all the other sort of devices that we all use in our daily

03:32lives. So there's this business for security. You know, on the Rwandan side, Rwanda is under pressure

03:43to pull its troops out of Congo. It's said to have up to 7,000 troops there at the moment,

03:50supporting the M23. It's been arming and giving strategic advice to the M23. And Congo is under

03:57pressure to stop tolerating the presence of the FDLR, which is an extremist Rwandan rebel group whose

04:05members back in the day took part in the 1994 genocide. So we know the broad principles. In exchange,

04:13America says its companies will go and invest in both countries' mining sectors. But we haven't seen

04:19the detail. And there are all sorts of things that could stop this actually happening.

04:22I want to talk about some of those things. One thing that strikes me just watching President Trump,

04:27very, very pleased with the ruling coming through from the Supreme Court today, talk about this has

04:32been some week. Now, if we look at the ceasefire with Iran and Israel, if we look at Pakistan

04:38promoting President Trump this week, suggesting they're putting his name down for a Nobel Peace

04:42Prize after what happened between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, you can see this as a kind of easy win

04:48moment, a step towards, as many say around him, a Nobel Prize to have that photo moment and deal with it

04:55on the surface of the complexities of Rwanda and the DRC. But what you're saying is beyond that,

05:01this kind of emperor's new clothes, there's very little there.

05:06Well, yes, if you talk to people involved in these negotiations, they say that there's been an alarming

05:13level of substantive detail. And I think, you know, there are many concerns. One is the M23 rebel movement

05:23is not going to be in Washington, not going to be signing this deal. It may not feel that it is obliged to

05:30respect the terms of this deal. Obviously, Rwanda provides it with key weaponry and key strategic advice and is

05:38backing it to the hilt. But, you know, as everybody knows, puppets often cut their own strings and like

05:45to go it alone. So there's a question of whether or not they will play ball. The M23 has been recruiting

05:54followers since the start of this year when it had these amazing successes in Goma and Bukavu. Success

06:01breeds success. So lots of young men who might normally have joined the Congolese army have joined the M23 instead.

06:08At the same time, we hear that the FTLR, this extremist Rwandan rebel group has also been recruiting

06:14young men who object fiercely to the fact that there are Rwandan troops and Rwandan-backed rebels

06:21controlling more and more territory. So both sides have actually recruited new members. And yet they're

06:26both now being expected to disarm, disengage, pull back. And the M23 in particular is going to be asked to

06:35to remove itself from the capitals of Goma and Bukavu. Those are big asks. And we were expected

06:44to see some movement. You know, I had been talking to people close to the negotiations who had been

06:51saying that by the beginning of June, they wanted to see Rwandan troops pulling out of Eastern Congo,

06:57and that would be a red line. And if that didn't happen, then you could forget it. There would be no

07:03signature of the deal. And you could forget about US business investment in that area and US companies

07:09going in. Well, that hasn't happened. So a red line has been lost. It seems to be a Congolese concession

07:18has been made in that they are still turning up to sign this peace deal. So we're seeing a lot

07:24of slippage already. And that's going to be a matter of concern. And with Rwanda signing this

07:29deal with the foreign minister being there, is this Kigali effectively admitting that it has

07:34been army, has been supporting the M23 group in the east of DRC by the very fact that they are there

07:40for this peace deal? Or is that just nowhere near being part of the agreement that they acknowledge

07:45their involvement? If you were to ask President Paul Kagame, you know, are your troops in Congo,

07:55his official line is always either, I don't know, which he said once very confusingly on CNN. But

08:02mostly he said, absolutely not. This is a Congolese problem. Nothing to do with us. We're not present.

08:07Why do we always get blamed for everything? But everyone knows that Rwanda is inside Eastern

08:12Congo. The figure cited at the moment is 7000 troops. And I think, you know, as you said yourself,

08:21the fact that Rwanda is there signing a deal and the M23 isn't makes it clear that they in private

08:28acknowledge that they are the key player in this conflict. You know, they are Congolese territory.

08:34And this is one of the points that has been raised by their critics.

08:37Denis Mukwege, for example, the Nobel Peace Prize winner. He's a Congolese surgeon who works in

08:43Bukavu. And he's been saying, you know, the trouble with this deal is it rewards Rwanda for invading

08:49Congo, for occupying Congo and for looting Congo's minerals. It effectively rewards Rwanda. And,

08:56and, you know, this is not, we should have seen instead Rwandan army officers be in the dock,

09:03uh, prosecuted for the war crimes committed on Congolese soil.

09:07Which gets me onto the point, effectively now, if we look at, um, Goma and Bukavu,

09:13what's become of them? You know, is this effectively territory that the DRC has resigned of being lost

09:19now to the rebels? No, I don't think there's any sense of resignation on the Congolese part.

09:25Um, it's true that since, uh, late, uh, January, these areas have been under the control of the M23.

09:32Um, sorry for that. No, no.

09:39I'm so sorry. I'm still with you. Carry on, Michaela.

09:42Uh, I'm sorry. Um, yeah. Uh, the, the, um, the, the M23, um, has, is now in control of, um, of Goma.

09:57It's in control of Bukavu. Uh, and what it's been doing is trying to set up administrative body, tax bodies,

10:05um, uh, organized tax, um, setting in, um, you know, put in place police administrative, um, uh,

10:16office, uh, arrangements. Um, and also it's been vetting the appointment of local traditional leaders.

10:23And what we hear is they've also been burning documents, uh, and, um, burning title deal deeds

10:29of Congolese people who have been forced to leave their, their, uh, their farms because the areas

10:36in which they were farming before, um, became, uh, so dangerous. So these are not the actions

10:41of a rebel movement that it is planning to pull out and hand over to the old authorities.

10:48And can I ask what the difference is this time? Because we're seeing a man who's making the deal,

10:53you know, and you've referred to at the beginning, there've been other attempts, including in Luanda,

10:58the end of 2024, where Paul Kagome didn't turn up, uh, to actually sign the deal in the end,

11:02but the man making this deal for the U S side, we often talk about Steve Witkoff on Gaza,

11:07um, Iran, Ukraine, Mr. Fixit on foreign affairs. Tell us about Mossad Boulos,

11:11Trump's negotiator here, who's worth saying his son is married to Donald Trump's daughter, Tiffany.

11:18Uh, yes, I think, um, he was a bit of a new player, um, for many of us. I have certainly

11:24haven't heard about him until earlier this year. He's a Lebanese extraction. He's a businessman,

11:32but I think his appointment, I said to Trump was very much in keeping with what we've seen elsewhere

11:38in the world with Witkoff, um, playing a role in the Ukraine. Uh, Trump likes to ask businessmen to

11:45sort out problems that, uh, in more traditional, more traditional administrations would, uh, um,

11:52would be asking diplomats and politicians, uh, and strategists to, um, to, uh, to, to play a role.

12:01So I think it's, it's very typical of Trump that he asked Boulos to try and sort this out. Um, and I

12:08think it, uh, it really, um, gives you a sense of what deal is on the table. This is being, um, presented

12:15as a business deal, a deal in which it's win-win for every, every player. Rwanda, uh, we are told

12:22will be, uh, allowed and encouraged to process Congolese minerals on its soil, but it will be

12:29doing so legally instead of doing so illegally as it does at present. Though we'll get a lot of, um, um,

12:36investment in its, um, often, uh, is very artisanal mining sector, um, and also elsewhere in the Congo,

12:44not just in the Kivus. This would also be happening in, in Shaba, in the Southern Congo. Um, and also,

12:50we might be seeing some investments on the border between the two countries, uh, along the Ruzizi

12:56River. Um, so the emphasis is on business and the idea is that with business inevitably goes peace and

13:03security because businessmen can't make money unless there's peace on the ground. And one thing,

13:08so it's a very, uh, transactional arrangement. A transactional arrangement to which it's probably

13:14worth you mentioning, uh, Michaela, and tell us about, there's one already there, isn't there?

13:18China has, uh, involvement in these mines as well. What is it that President Dishikedi can offer to

13:23the US and does that get bogged down in what he's already offered to the Chinese? Yes, and this is

13:30another key point of one of the, the issues that raise when people are talking about this deal,

13:36because, um, something like 80% of, um, of the Congolese mining sector is currently in Chinese hands.

13:43Um, uh, the, the, the whole sector is really controlled by Chinese companies. Um, so, um,

13:50it's true that there are small artisanal mines and that there are areas which are yet to be explored

13:56where the US could invest, but the big current mining, um, um, mining operations tend to be in

14:05Chinese hands. So, the Congolese may have to decide whether they ask those Chinese investors

14:11to leave and hand over some of those concessions to the US or whether it really thinks that it has

14:16enough resources to, um, to attract both China, to keep China engaged and also attract these new

14:23US investors into the area. Can I also briefly ask you about, um, the rumors that have been

14:29swirling around on social media and also in some of the African press as well about the health of

14:33Paul Kagame up until recently. I think he hadn't been seen what, since the start of June

14:38in public. And this is somebody that I think you've suggested in the past, he's often seen in public,

14:42whether it's a, a school leavers do or a handshaking ceremony here and there, he's usually seen

14:46and a picture for the press, Trump-like, if you will. Um, what's going on there? Rumors of, um,

14:52ill health going to Germany. What's your take?

14:56Yes. Um, there was, uh, there was a period of about three weeks in which Paul Kagame,

15:00he was constantly on public display, giving speeches, giving interviews. He's very often

15:07interviewed or he's opening a school or he's visiting a farm. Um, and suddenly he disappeared.

15:14Um, and what we were hearing, um, people like me who follow, uh, Rwanda closely,

15:20we're hearing from our sources, um, uh, and, uh, uh, diplomats were saying the same thing.

15:26And it was also, um, doing the rounds amongst opposition sources was that he had taken ill,

15:32uh, that he had seizure, uh, and that he had been medevaced to Germany for emergency treatment.

15:39Uh, and we know that the presidential jets, um, Kagame likes to use two Gulfstream jets and

15:45that those jets were seen, uh, taking off from Kigali. Um, and then one of them was parked,

15:51um, um, in at Frankfurt airport for during this strange, um, moment in which he went AWOL.

15:58Uh, and then he returned to Kigali and the jet was seen going back to Kigali. Um, there's been no

16:03comment by the government confirming that he suffered any kind of malaise. Um, in fact,

16:10they were just saying that, you know, he's perfectly well, and he was just taking a well-earned rest.

16:15But as the speculation reached its height, um, the government did put out, um,

16:22the presidential office put out a photograph of him, um, uh, shaking hands with former Nigerian

16:29President Ola Sagan Obasanjo. And it was clearly put out to quite speculation because I think things

16:36had reached a fever pitch. Uh, and on TikTok and various other social media outlets, you could see

16:42what seemed to me pretty obviously fabricated AI generated videos, um, showing him on an IV drip in

16:50hospital or a coffin being flown back to Kigali. So speculation was really, really getting out of

16:57control. And I think they felt obliged to quiet things down by publishing that photograph. What I

17:02think the whole episode did, however, is, um, that this, you know, central control lies in one man's

17:09hands in Rwanda. Uh, uh, control is all, you know, all power is in one man's hands. And these are

17:17Paul Kagame's hands. And when he's not there to, uh, on display, but also clearly taking key, key

17:24decisions, there's a sense of an administration that flails around panics and really doesn't know

17:30what to do with itself. Michaela, great to have you on the program to get behind the story and some

17:35context on what's really going on. Michaela wrong, renowned journalist and author on African affairs.

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