00:00This Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron is hosting a meeting to discuss the future of France's Pacific Archipelago, New Caledonia.
00:08It comes after the signing in July of the so-called Bougival Accord, which is notably due to create a New Caledonian state within France, enshrined in the French Constitution.
00:18Today's meeting is intended to provide clarifications about that agreement, but New Caledonia's main independence movement, the Canac and Socialist National Liberation Front, announced this week that they will not attend.
00:30Well, for some insight, we can speak to Andrew Smith, a historian of modern France and the director of liberal arts at Queen Mary University of London.
00:38Good morning. It's good to talk to you.
00:41Hello, morning.
00:42Can you start by explaining why the pro-independence camp has rejected this deal, especially because, from my understanding, they were part of, you know, coming up with it and signed it initially back in July before rejecting it just a couple of days later?
00:55Much of this relates back, of course, to the kind of outbursts of violence in 2024 and then subsequently the arrest of some of the FLNKS leaders, specifically Christian Thien, who was arrested, the current president of FLNKS, and kind of imprisoned in France.
01:17He's returned to New Caledonia recently, and many of the loyalist forces were extremely unhappy about that.
01:26But I think, ironically, you can see one of the reasons that he's refusing to appear, because he did actually appear in Paris yesterday.
01:32However, by video call, in a trial of defamation, in which Sonia Baquez, one of the loyalist leaders, had called him the leader of a terrorist group.
01:41And, of course, he was contesting that and actually using the invitation from Emmanuel Macron to say, well, look, I'm a normative part of political dialogue.
01:49So, really, it's about political division.
01:51And I think that idea of, like, seeing the negativity around what came out of that violence, you know, 15 people dead, you know, billions of euros in damage in 2024, that's what cannot be returned to.
02:06And actually, even without the FLNKS, this meeting this weekend promises, I think, some constructive dialogue and a way forward, which might be able to reintegrate the views of the FLNKS in the longer term.
02:19So, the FLNKS are keen not to be painted as extremists, as terrorists, as people that cannot form part of this dialogue.
02:25And at the moment, that's why they feel they cannot be part and endorse something, which seems to, in some way, tip its hand towards the loyalists.
02:33Can you talk a little bit more about what actually is in this accord?
02:36I mean, are there things within it that they take issue with, or is it more just the image that the government seems to have of them?
02:43Yeah, I mean, so, the bourgeois accord, as you mentioned, one of the things, of course, the kind of headline concession is that it allows for the creation of a state of New Caledonia in the French constitution.
02:58It allows for kind of greater powers for the provincial governments there.
03:02And that really is where it kind of moves things towards.
03:06However, what it also supports is the unfreezing of the electoral lists in New Caledonia.
03:13That's who can vote in elections.
03:15Currently, they are frozen at the lists in, I think, in 1998.
03:19Now, the reason for that, of course, is you have a very well-defined indigenous people at the Kanak,
03:24who actually feel that other people who've come and moved to the island and might be numerically superior will change the context of any vote on independence.
03:34Likewise, there are provisions there in the bourgeois accord for France to have a sort of a backstop on this, to, you know, have last veto over ideas of autonomy.
03:44So there are, you know, it's a negotiated settlement, which seems to move some people towards it and actually give France some guarantees as well.
03:52And it's actually been a big issue with the Macronist party.
03:56And there's an open letter just written recently by Gabrielle Attal, of course, former prime minister, supporting Nicolas Metzdorff, one of the Macronist MPs in the region.
04:04They're quite unhappy about the fact that the government seems to be sort of responding to the FLNKS and their sort of refusal to engage.
04:13And they want to make sure that this process moves forward democratically with or without that quite important voice.
04:20Yeah, as you mentioned, the main kind of headline of the agreement is that it would create a new Caledonian state, but that would still be within France.
04:28So it seems like it kind of shuts the door to New Caledonia ever really having actual independence.
04:34Is that kind of a non-starter for those pro-independence group?
04:38Or is there anything that France could offer them that would sort of make up for not having their full independence?
04:43It's a challenge. And, of course, the kind of Canak political cause is not uniform.
04:51At the moment, with the FLNKS, with Christian Tiana at its head, it represents perhaps some of the more kind of militant tendency.
04:58He was, of course, part of a group, the CCAT, which was seen as being one of the most strident and at the heart of those roadblocks and all the rest of it back in 2024.
05:06There are other forces. Of course, you can see the president, the government of New Caledonia.
05:11I see Bonga, a Canak man who is maybe more kind of loyalist in terms of his views.
05:17And there are others who are kind of more keen for independence, but maybe not right now.
05:22So there are a number of different political forces at work.
05:25And it's important to look to that idea of political plurality.
05:28Of course, what's really an issue is we've had a series of referenda around independence in 2018, 2020 and 2021,
05:41although the last one was boycotted by pro-independence groups.
05:45And actually, that's set the tone for that kind of really difficult confrontation.
05:49Likewise, there are provincial elections due.
05:52They were meant to take place in 2024.
05:53They were postponed to 2025.
05:55And actually, one of the things the Bourgeois Agreement said is they will take place in 2026.
06:00The French Constitutional Court has said those elections cannot be delayed again or it's unconstitutional.
06:06But they've said that they can maintain the same electoral lists.
06:10However, the loyalist groups have actually gone to are threatening to go to the European Human Rights Court to say that actually this is a breach of human rights for people who are resident in New Caledonia to be excluded from these electoral lists.
06:22So my point there is simply there are a lot of moving parts here, a lot of dialogue that's needed in terms of construction.
06:28And I think these meetings this weekend are really important because it brings very senior political figures, President of the National Assembly, President of the Senate, of course, the President of France,
06:39into conversation with around 75 percent of the members of New Caledonia's Caledonian Congress and will hopefully be able to kind of reassure some people, move some things forward.
06:49And even if there are no solutions today, what it does is reestablish the basis for productive conversations.
06:55The way you describe it, though, I mean, it sounds like, you know, as you said, lots of moving parts, lots of pluralities of opinion on both sides.
07:01But it still seems like the two kind of most extreme camps are kind of fundamentally at odds.
07:07Given that, I mean, how how do you foresee this proceeding and moving forward?
07:11Do you think we might you know, is there going to be real progress or ultimately are we going to get back to sort of an impasse?
07:17And if I had to predict something, I would say that I don't see any lasting solutions coming out of this meeting.
07:25But actually, I have to say, I don't think that's the fault of the FLNKS.
07:29For all of this to happen, there needs to be constitutional amendments made.
07:34That means that ultimately it's going to have to go through the French National Assembly.
07:38And whatever happens in terms of bridging these political divides, whatever happens around negotiating sovereignty,
07:43I think one of the biggest roadblocks to anything that's going to happen is moving this type of paper through the National Assembly itself, given the current state of division.
07:52So, no, I don't think what we're going to see is a solution coming out of this weekend.
07:56But I think what we are seeing is a reengagement from the president of France and, you know, a real commitment to move things forward.
08:03And I think the idea of the presence of those loyalist parties means that they are a greater part of that discussion.
08:09But nothing can move forward without the participation of the Canac people.
08:12Ultimately, deciding the sovereignty of New Caledonia, as I think we'll see represented in international law, needs to involve the voice of the Canac people.
08:21So, no, I don't see anything coming out of this today.
08:24I don't think it's useless.
08:25I think it moves forward political discussions.
08:28It lowers the tension in terms of that simmering kind of undercurrent of threats of violence and kind of, you know, language being used against different political opponents.
08:38But really, I think we are moving perhaps further towards a solution, if still blocked.
08:46It's those baby steps.
08:49Andrew Smith, thank you again so much for speaking to us today.
08:52That's Andrew Smith, a historian of modern France and the director of liberal arts at Queen Mary University of London.
08:58That's Andrew Smith, a historian of liberal arts at Queen Mary University of London.
Comments