First, you get the cold, then you get the snow

AccuWeather

In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno takes a look at the threat of cold and snow in the United States.

Transcript

00:00The window is open for cold and snow. And of course, before you get the snow, you've got to

00:06get the cold. We're already getting the cold here on Wednesday, and that cold is going to be building

00:12across the Midwest and parts of the Northeast over the next 10 days. And with that, some threats

00:18for snow. I want to give you some headlines here. This is what I'm thinking. Midwest snowstorm this

00:23weekend. We do have a snow map. I'll show you that here in a second. Then I'm telling you, I saw this

00:29last week. The potential is there for more snow. I could see this being a snowstorm. I could also see

00:36how it's a minor event, but certainly the snow potential is there from the Midwest to the

00:40Northeast Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. And then the next storm will be for the Rockies and

00:46Northern Plains, let's say next weekend. Okay. Now I want to get into this. Let's talk about the first

00:53ingredient you need, and that is the cold. These are the high temperatures, by the way, on Saturday.

00:58Here's your 32-degree line. So here, see, you're building the cold in the northern part of the

01:04country. This sets you up for the snowstorm Saturday, Saturday night in the Midwest as the storm attacks

01:12the cold air from the south. Then, as we get into next Monday and Tuesday, watch, the cold starts

01:18spreading east a little bit here. There it is. Here's your 32-degree line in here. So here's the

01:23cold. You're building it now, not only in the Midwest, but toward parts of the Northeast. And

01:28as we get into Tuesday, let's show you the high temperatures again. Notice where the 32-degree

01:32line is, right along the I-95 corridor. But see, you still have the cold built in here. Now,

01:40let's do storm number one. I talked about this. I want to show you where it is on the map right now.

01:47And there it is. Let me put this on full so you can get a sense of where we are. So this is the

01:53weekend storm. As we talked about, it's coming into the Northwest. We'll talk more about the

01:57Tuesday-Wednesday storm. That energy right now is over the Aleutian Islands here. So again,

02:04let's take it one by one. I do think the modeling is pretty good now with this storm coming up over the

02:12weekend. Not that everything is been figured out, but I think the general track is there. And here

02:20it is. Let me take you forward here going into the weekend. So here's the storm coming into the

02:25Northwest tomorrow. So it comes on the North American continent tomorrow. There it is. Now,

02:30that's going to come south. You're going to have another piece of energy coming on through.

02:34Let me take you into Friday. Here comes that southern piece. There it is. Let me stop at Saturday

02:38morning. Now, for this storm to occur, this southern piece of energy has to get out ahead

02:45of this northern trough. If it doesn't, then you know what happens? It's just the frontal boundary.

02:51And all of the precipitation is on the northern side. And as it warms up, it would mostly be rain.

02:56But as you take a look at this, you can clearly see by Saturday afternoon, see it's out ahead of it.

03:03Here's your northern piece. Here's your southern piece. It's out ahead of this. So you're going to

03:09get a storm to form and that's going to move to the northeast. I want to show you by looking at just

03:15the upper air map to me, to me, the heaviest snow. And whatever I mean by that six inches more is going

03:22to be in here. I think it's Des Moines. I think it's toward maybe Rochester, Minnesota, but certainly

03:28toward Madison, Milwaukee, Green Bay, up in here. I feel pretty confident that the six inch line is

03:36north of Chicago. I believe that. Let me show you the surface map as well with this as we play this

03:43out. And again, let's go in the Saturday. See, here comes a storm. And this is what I, I'm not

03:48impressed for Chicago. I think the storm is too far to your, it's too close to you. I think for a snow

03:54in Chicago, you need the storm track in here. This is coming in here. Now that doesn't mean

03:59you're not going to get snow in Chicago. I think you will, but I want to show your snow map. And

04:03there was a big, big discussion about this this morning. And I just talked with the crystal ball

04:09meteorologist, Joe Lumberg, and he has the same concern I have. Let me show you the snowfall map.

04:15This is it right here. Let me put this on full so you can see it. So we, right now we have Chicago at

04:21four to eight inches. I like the four more than the eight. I think this is going to end up being

04:26three to four inches in Chicago. I think this six line is going to come up here. I really do. This

04:31does not look to be the right track for Chicago. Everything else is fine. But I think that that

04:37six inch line is going to be north of Detroit and the three inch line comes something like this,

04:43right? So, you know, that, that's my concern that this is the six plus, this is the three to six.

04:49And then, yeah, one to three, it may be something like in here. We might be a little too far south

04:55with this. That's the concern I have, but this is going to be a storm that's going to cause travel

05:01delays. No doubt about it across the Midwest here as we head into Saturday. Now, let me get back

05:09to next week. I'm getting more and more impressed with next week. And just to review, that's this right

05:16here, this piece of energy. This is going to come around the bend. And you know what we're going to

05:20do? We're going to play the same game as we're playing with this storm. That is, can the southern

05:26piece of energy get out ahead of the northern drop to form a storm? Or is it just the front? Because

05:34if it doesn't get out ahead of it, you just get a frontal boundary and all the precipitation is in the

05:39warm air, not in the cold, and then you don't get any snow. So that's a possibility. Do I think it's

05:44the most likely scenario? I do not. Here's the piece of energy right here. This is the storm.

05:51This is the northern piece of the energy. This has to get out ahead of this. This is Monday.

05:55Let's go to Tuesday. There it is. Now, this is the European. It is barely out ahead of it. Barely.

06:03See how it kind of goes along and then it weakens? There would be some snow, but it wouldn't be a lot.

06:08I want to show you the UK Met. This, now this is the model of choice if you want snow. Look at this.

06:17This is Tuesday morning. You see this southern piece? It's all the way down here. It's a lot

06:21stronger than European, which is this. See, European, UK Met. European, UK Met. All right. So the window

06:30is still open for this storm, how this is going to work. I want to show you where I think there's a

06:36snow threat here on Tuesday. This is it. I'm sorry for those along the I-95 wanting snow.

06:41This is not your storm. I don't believe it. And I think the models could be too far east.

06:46Here is your snow threat. That's it. As we get into Tuesday and Wednesday and next week,

06:53and for some, it'll be the first snow of the season. Get ready for it. It's coming. And that's the feed.

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