- 2 days ago
Alex Donno of Locked on Canes breaks down how the Miami Hurricanes can still make the ACC Title game with a win over Pitt on Saturday. Plus, his take on the reaction nationally to the Hurricanes win over Virginia Tech Saturday.
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00:00All right, this is very important in my estimation,
00:04and so we will get the real story from the real deal.
00:10And before we talk football, I always remind you,
00:12the best place to get geared up with Canes or Dolphins merch this season
00:16is Caneswear in Davie or online at caneswear.com.
00:20Alex Dono, he's on the Toyota of Hollywood Hotline.
00:23He is the host of the Locked on Canes podcast,
00:26which you can hear anywhere.
00:28And he hosts our Canes postgame coverage.
00:30And this guy knows more about the Canes and the ACC
00:33than just about anyone I know.
00:36So what are the chances, Dono, that the Hurricanes
00:39actually play in the ACC championship game?
00:44All right, so before I get into the scenarios,
00:45which I have written down because they're incredibly confusing,
00:48the FanDuel Sportsbook is giving Miami an 8.5% chance
00:54to make it to the ACC championship game.
00:56But in ACC terms, 8.5% might as well be 85%
01:01because you expect chaos in that conference, right?
01:04I mean, Georgia Tech has controlled their own destiny at times this year.
01:10You know, Virginia, SMU was like out of it a few weeks ago,
01:13and now they're in it.
01:14So the only two teams that actually control their own destiny this Saturday
01:18are Virginia and SMU.
01:20So if they both win, that's your ACC championship game,
01:24and I'm sure they would set ratings records for that one,
01:27Virginia versus SMU.
01:30As far as Miami goes,
01:33here are, from what I understand,
01:36the four scenarios that would see Miami play for an ACC championship game.
01:41Obviously, you have to beat Pittsburgh.
01:43That's non-negotiable.
01:44But you need a bunch of other stuff to happen.
01:47So the first scenario is SMU wins,
01:50and they play against Cal,
01:52who Cal just fired their coach,
01:54and, you know, SMU's favored by 10.5 points.
01:56So if SMU wins,
01:58Duke would also have to lose against Wake Forest,
02:02and Virginia would have to lose against Virginia Tech.
02:04So that's one scenario.
02:06Now, Virginia is a lot better than Virginia Tech,
02:08but keep in mind,
02:09Virginia Tech has beaten them,
02:10I think, nine out of the last ten meetings.
02:12So, you know, it's the ACC.
02:14It's a rivalry.
02:15Anything can happen there.
02:17Scenario two would be the Duke Blue Devils win,
02:21and SMU and Virginia both lose.
02:23And in that scenario,
02:24Miami would face Duke in the ACC championship game.
02:27You would get Mario versus Manny round two.
02:31Scenario three would be if Virginia wins against Virginia Tech,
02:36and Duke and SMU both lose,
02:39then Miami would face Virginia in the ACC championship game.
02:42And then scenario number four would be Duke, SMU,
02:47and Virginia all lose their games this weekend.
02:51And I'm not even sure who Miami would play,
02:53and maybe Georgia Tech in that championship scenario.
02:56But Miami would get in in any of those four scenarios.
02:59In the words of Lloyd Christmas,
03:01so you're telling me there's a chance.
03:02Dono, as I'm watching you, and I know you personally,
03:09and I'm seeing a U.M. shirt behind you, all the U.M. stuff,
03:13I don't know if I'm going to get a right answer on this.
03:15But you're talking about SMU, Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech.
03:18You're giving us the scenario.
03:19Is the justified disrespect of the ACC, is it a justified disrespect?
03:26Because those are very impressive teams, bro.
03:28It's absolutely justified.
03:31Because you think about it, Miami, at least Miami's kind of close
03:36to being like a really good team.
03:38But Clemson was supposed to be a playoff team this year.
03:42Clemson, odds on favorite to win the ACC.
03:44Clemson's bad this year.
03:46I mean, Florida State, they blew out Alabama week one.
03:49Like you thought, hey, maybe Florida State's good again this year.
03:52They've been terrible.
03:54So, yeah, Crowder, when you're talking about a conference
03:56where the two teams that control their own destiny are SMU and Duke,
04:02and not that I want to disrespect SMU because they snuck into the playoff last year,
04:06but still, it's SMU.
04:08Yeah, the ACC hate is completely justified.
04:11They've also been pretty bad out of conference this year, the ACC.
04:15So it's been a really rough year for the ACC, and I can't really defend it.
04:19But with that being said, Dono, are you not angry the way I'm angry?
04:23Watching Louis Riddick bring up a million times during the broadcast
04:27that this isn't an impressive victory.
04:29The graphic after the game on ESPN is that Miami survives at Virginia Tech.
04:33The bottom line on ESPN after they're showing just the ticker
04:37that the Hurricanes beat Virginia Tech 34-17,
04:41they let you know underneath.
04:43Only the second time Miami played a game outside of the state of Florida,
04:46which makes no sense for the ticker.
04:47Like, why are you even adding that in there?
04:50It does seem like the standards of victory and the standards of what makes a good victory
04:58and impressive victory are different when talking about the Miami Hurricanes.
05:01Yeah, and in that same note, like, I was watching later that night Utah,
05:06like, needing multiple miracles to beat a bad Kansas State team,
05:10and the teams combined to score 100 points, and there was no defense.
05:13And I didn't hear that.
05:15Utah has been ranked in front of Miami in the CFP ranking.
05:19I didn't hear any of that.
05:20Like, I didn't hear anybody saying, Utah survived a scare.
05:23I heard, wow, look at that gutsy win by Utah.
05:26That's what playoff teams are made of.
05:28So the narrative is ridiculous.
05:30And you mentioned that thing where ESPN actually put on their crawl
05:34and on their headline, Miami survives scare.
05:37You know, Miami was up by two or three scores for 43 out of 60 minutes in that game.
05:44And if you go by the live ESPN win percentage,
05:47I don't think it was ever below 95% in the second half.
05:50So surviving a scare, it sounds to me like they're trying to shape a narrative.
05:56What about Pitt on Saturday?
05:59Does anything about this game make you nervous?
06:02Because you said this all, I mean, we went through every scenario,
06:05but you said this all starts with the Hurricanes have to handle their business against Pitt.
06:10And we know from the past games, like, this is not a cakewalk.
06:15It's not.
06:16Pitt is a really good football team.
06:17I actually, no outcome would surprise me.
06:21I was actually a little surprised, though, to see Miami favored by six and a half points
06:26on the road for this game.
06:27I thought that'd be more of like a three and a half, four and a half point type of deal.
06:31Yeah, Pitt is legit.
06:33And they, like, they, you know, Georgia Tech's defense has been really bad.
06:36That's not new for them.
06:38But, you know, they put up a ton of rushing yards against Georgia Tech.
06:42And that was without Des Reed.
06:43Like, Desmond Reed is their top player.
06:45He's sort of like their version of Malachi Tony.
06:48They line him up everywhere.
06:49He's a matchup nightmare.
06:50And they essentially were arresting him to play against Miami.
06:53So I assume Reed is going to play this week.
06:56He's a type of guy you have to game plan against.
06:58You know, Pitt has a really solid defense.
07:01Their linebackers are always good under Narduzzi.
07:04Their defensive line is pretty good.
07:07This is one of those things where, you know, if Miami plays the way that they've been playing
07:12for the better part of these last three victories, you should be able to go in there and get the
07:16win because you do have more talent.
07:19And you're getting some reinforcements back.
07:21We should be able to have David Blay back in the interior of the defensive line.
07:27And OJ Frederique should be back.
07:29And CJ Daniels should be back at receiver.
07:31The thing that I want Miami to exploit, the fact that Pitt does have a true freshman starting
07:37quarterback where he's been kind of been able to beat up on the bad defenses.
07:41But when he's gone up against better defenses like Notre Dame, you get more of the deer in
07:45the headlights type of thing.
07:46So I need Miami to pressure Mason Heintzel, Mason Heintzel, I should say.
07:51And then something about Pitt that I think is notable for this game.
07:55You know, when we saw, for example, when Miami lost to Louisville, they one of the big reasons
08:01why they lost that game was the Louisville coach, Jeff Brom, he got super creative.
08:05Like he knew we're not just going to beat this team if we line them up.
08:09I need to put three quarterbacks on the field at once.
08:11I need to throw the kitchen sink at these guys.
08:14That was the way Jeff Brom approached it.
08:16You never see that from Pat Narduzzi, the Pitt coach.
08:19Like Narduzzi is a little bit more, he's got more of that Mario Cristobal style mentality
08:23where no matter who he's playing against, he's just going to want to line it up and try
08:27to win the individual matchups.
08:29And I don't think that's how, if you're the less talented team, I don't think that's how
08:33you should approach Miami.
08:34Maybe he does it differently, but I think Narduzzi is just going to line them up and try
08:38to win the game straightforward.
08:40I think if they threw the kitchen sink, they'd have a better chance.
08:42And Donald, as you've watched all these games, and it's getting down to the end, that's why
08:46we're talking about college football playoffs and percentages, but we knew Mesidor and Bain
08:51were going to be good.
08:52And they're damn good defensive ends.
08:53They, you know, they can play ball.
08:55We assume Carson Beck would be a Heisman Trophy candidate.
08:58He's had ups and downs.
08:59We didn't know about the young receivers.
09:00There was question marks and there were solidified guys going into the season.
09:05Who has surprised you either way?
09:06What group or person has surprised you positively and negatively as you watch a lot of football
09:11that came, you know, watching the games?
09:13Yeah.
09:14I mean, I guess like if I want to start with the negatively, there's been a couple of guys
09:17that I thought would be big parts of the offense that just haven't been like Elijah Lofton
09:23at tight end, but he's caught touchdowns in the last couple of games.
09:26But I just, I thought Lofton would be just, you know, getting seven, eight touches per
09:32game and, and having a hundred yard games and multiple touchdown games.
09:36He just, for whatever reason, hasn't had the mojo this year.
09:39He's had some drops.
09:40He's not been targeted nearly as much as you would think.
09:42I can't fully explain why, uh, you know, Jordan Lyle at running back, I thought would
09:47have like a mega year.
09:48Part of the reason why he hasn't has been injury.
09:51Like he missed a big chunk of games early on injured, and he hasn't really been the same
09:55since then and with Lyle, you know, not having kind of the bust out year, um, that's given
10:00on the positive end, uh, Gerard Pringle, the true freshman running back, who's played a
10:04lot these last three games.
10:05He's been excellent.
10:06And even though like he didn't have a big rushing, uh, performance this past weekend,
10:10uh, but he did catch a touchdown pass.
10:13And then the week before against NC state, he had a hundred plus yards.
10:16He's been a pleasant surprise.
10:18Um, Jacoby Thomas in the back end of Miami secondary.
10:21And it sounds like he's going to be able to play this week.
10:23He left the last game early.
10:24Uh, he's been sensational.
10:26You know, he had that two interception game in the pick six game against NC state.
10:30He's been awesome.
10:31And like some of the other outside of Bain and Mesidor, there's been some other good
10:35players on the defensive line, like, uh, second year defensive tackle, Justin Scott, like
10:40he's gotten a lot more playing time second half of the year with other guys injured.
10:44And he's starting to really look like the five-star recruit that he was a couple of years
10:48ago.
10:48So there's, there's really been a number of players who have seized their opportunities.
10:52And then of course, Malachi Tony, like it's no longer a secret, but that dude is one
10:56of the best players in the country.
10:58Yes.
10:58Yeah.
10:58It's pretty amazing what he has done this season, uh, seemingly out of nowhere, because
11:02I didn't know until game one that like, whoa, cause we had talked, I remember going into
11:06the season.
11:07We're like, they have any weapons.
11:08Is there any weapons?
11:09I remember that being like a narrative.
11:11Are there any weapons for Carson Beck?
11:13And then all of a sudden you got, got your eyes opened by Malachi Tony, uh, Alex Dono, you
11:17listen to him on locked on Canes and, uh, there's going to be a lot of hot and heavy
11:21action leading up to Saturday.
11:24So you say hard rock bet has it at 8%, an 8% chance for the Canes to play in the ACC
11:29championship game.
11:30Yeah.
11:318.5.
11:32So you don't want to short change the extra half percent.
11:34That's going to be the difference.
11:35The extra half.
11:36No, I want that half a percent.
11:38I'm not giving that to anybody for no reason.
11:39Um, finally, are you doing traditional Thanksgiving, Dono?
11:43Are you having a Turkey and stuffing or you do, uh, something a little, uh, more outside
11:48the box being that you're an Italian.
11:50Yeah.
11:51All the above.
11:51Um, we have a really big spread.
11:53Like my, my father is the primary cook for that.
11:56Um, there's going to be the traditional stuff, Turkey stuffing, mashed potatoes probably,
12:01but he does extra.
12:02Like there's usually some kind of a pasta dish.
12:05There's usually an additional meat because Turkey's very overrated.
12:08So there's usually an additional meat, like a roast pork or something.
12:12Yeah.
12:13There might be some gum cool as well.
12:15Yeah.
12:15There's going to be, there's going to be like a shrimp appetizer.
12:18There's going to be a big spread.
12:20Shrimp.
12:20Yeah.
12:21Really?
12:22Yeah.
12:23That's outside.
12:24Saffron shrimp is one of his specialties.
12:26Saffron shrimp.
12:27Wow.
12:29That's a warm shrimp dish.
12:30It's a warm shrimp dish.
12:32And usually it's served inside a puff pastry.
12:35Wow.
12:35I love a puff pastry.
12:37Who doesn't love a puff pastry?
12:39Oh, saffron is one of the most expensive seasons in the world.
12:43Is that so?
12:44Well, he, um, he, it is so, but, um, so, so my father, like he goes to Italy every year
12:50and he, he stocks up on saffron there.
12:54Cause it's cheaper in Europe for some reason.
12:55And he has like a small suitcase.
12:58That's basically full of saffron and other food items that he brings back with him.
13:03I've seen that show to catch a smuggler.
13:06Yeah.
13:07This guy.
13:08And they go into the room.
13:09This guy.
13:1140 pounds of Gaba Ghoul.
13:13He ate bottles of saffron.
13:16And, uh, we're trying to get ahold of a family member to see if there's something going on.
13:23Uh, Dono, thank you.
13:24As always, we appreciate your insight with the, uh, with the hurricanes and, uh, we appreciate
13:31the time and, uh, happy Thanksgiving to you, pal.
13:33Happy Thanksgiving.
13:34And I'm going to try to have those scenarios straight.
13:37Cause I don't know who to root for and who against this Saturday, but wait, there's way
13:41too many moving parts for me.
13:42I'm speaking for me and me only.
13:44There's way too many moving parts for me as well.
13:46I'm just going to have to follow you on Twitter and, uh, and see after the game is like, I'm
13:52just worried about the Canes beating pit, let the Canes beat pit.
13:55And then, uh, then I'll start trying to figure out what's, what's going on after that.
14:00Is there any scenario by the way, where Notre Dame should be placed ahead of Miami?
14:04In the college football playoffs.
14:06Yeah, I don't think so.
14:07I mean, my, my Twitter timeline is just full of people with shamrock, uh, emojis in their,
14:12in their, uh, descriptions, like arguing with me all day, but it's like, I mean, at the
14:17end of the day, shouldn't head to head when you have the same record head to head should
14:22be the first tiebreaker.
14:23I don't get it.
14:24Seems like it.
14:25All right, Alex, Donna, we appreciate it, Donna.
14:28See ya.
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