G20 prioritises debt sustainability, renewable energy, gender and health

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00:00Let's cross from Brussels to South Africa, where right now world leaders are starting to arrive.

00:04One of the biggest moments in its democratic history, hosting the G20 global gathering of leaders,

00:09marking the first time the meeting of developed and powerful nations are getting together on African soil this weekend.

00:15The country's foreign minister, Ronald Lamola, describing the atmosphere in the spotlight this week

00:19of reminiscent of the World Cup in 2010, a moment that can unite nations, he said.

00:24The theme, solidarity, equality, sustainability.

00:27And President Macron arrived a short while ago, so too India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi

00:31and the British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer.

00:34Well, the G20, sometimes seen as a talking shop, a lot of discussion, photo ops, non-binding agreements,

00:39but there will be notable voices not in the room.

00:42President Trump is boycotting.

00:43President Putin faces arrest if he touched down on South African soil

00:46in accordance with the International Criminal Court warrant, which Pretoria is signed up to.

00:51And President Xi isn't going either.

00:53So what should we expect?

00:54Let's bring in Pauline Backs, Deputy Programme Director for Africa of the International Crisis Group.

01:00Great to have you on the programme, Pauline.

01:01And you've clearly set out in your article for the crisis group the challenges, the opportunities for the country.

01:07It's a piece entitled South Africa's Juggling Act.

01:10Talk us through it.

01:11It's been a big year for South Africa.

01:16The Leaders' Summit this weekend has been preceded by dozens and dozens of meetings throughout the year,

01:21from finance ministers to foreign ministers to think tanks to media, civil society,

01:27all kinds of working groups coming together.

01:30There's 22 in the G20.

01:32So there's a whole architecture around the G20 that culminates in the Leaders' Summit this weekend.

01:39Unfortunately, most of the discussions in the last couple of weeks have been dominated by the question

01:44if the U.S. is going to attend or not.

01:47And especially this last couple of days, we had a few last-minute developments

01:51where maybe the U.S. was going to attend and it wasn't.

01:55And now the U.S. has warned South Africa against issuing or hosting or presiding over, I should say,

02:03a joint declaration because the G20, the end of the G20 presidency, is a leader's declaration

02:10where all the G20 heads of state would agree to a common position.

02:15So that common position seems very elusive at the moment, but there is a draft proposal that is circulating at the moment.

02:24And it seems that all the nations that are here in Johannesburg for the weekend seem to agree to that draft proposal.

02:32This is in any case something that South Africa is circulating,

02:35and South Africa is pushing very hard for a common position.

02:39What does it tell us, Pauline?

02:40And what's at the heart of it in the draft proposal?

02:42In terms of actually being and achieving a significant G20 summit,

02:47what can the South Africans potentially hold up at the end if they get agreement on this?

02:53Well, you know, it's an economic coordination summit, so a lot of it is about...

02:58I have to say I haven't read the draft proposal yet.

03:01I know it is circulating.

03:02I know there's an important reference to critical minerals, warning, or at least a warning against unilateral actions on critical minerals,

03:12which some observers would read as sort of a jab to China,

03:16which has taken unilateral actions on critical minerals by curbing experts a couple of weeks ago.

03:23So this is an important point, and there's some agreement on measures for debt sustainability that Ramaphosa, our president, has pushed for,

03:33which mostly applies to low- and middle-income countries.

03:37There are said to be some reference to Ukraine as well, but I haven't seen those, so I can't really comment on those.

03:43But the focus will be on South Africa's policy priorities, economic coordination, economic policies.

03:52So yes, critical minerals, green energy, renewables, that kind of thing.

03:55So the spin on...

03:57And climate resilience. Sorry, I have to add the language here.

03:59Climate resilience at the heart of it.

04:00So we're talking about the global South, poor nations as well,

04:03speeding up both the ability of those nations to adapt to climate change,

04:10also having the focus, Africa-centric.

04:14Now, President Trump isn't there.

04:16The way that South Africa is spinning this is kind of their loss,

04:18and somebody else will fill the vacuum.

04:21There are winners and losers.

04:22And I think notably, there was a conference between the EU and South African representatives yesterday,

04:28where the EU were talking about the reliability, the constancy of a partner.

04:32I wonder what you make of what fills the void.

04:35Who is the winner and who are the losers potentially out of the US not being there?

04:40Well, I think to some extent, South Africa will be a winner either way,

04:45because the EU has come out very strongly in support of South Africa.

04:50It's clearly endorsing South Africa's agenda.

04:52It's already pledged about 12 billion euros this year for renewable energy programs

04:59and for South Africa's green transition plans.

05:03And today, in a press conference, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced another 7 billion euros

05:10for electricity and renewable energy in Africa, the details of which have still to be published.

05:18But the EU has also said, we believe in multilateral cooperation.

05:21We believe in a rules-based order.

05:24We are behind South Africa.

05:26And besides the European Union, there will be also Brazil and India, I think, endorsing those kinds of positions

05:32and the big emphasis on multilateral cooperation in an increasingly tense geopolitical world.

05:39The other dynamic that can get easily missed off, and given that we're talking about the dominating news tonight of Ukraine

05:47and the position that President Zelensky is in, is the fact that President Putin isn't there.

05:51But this is not from, it's not been clear-cut for South Africa, has it?

05:54There are points where South Africa, I think Cyril Ramaphosa had said a few years ago,

05:59actually they wanted to leave the International Criminal Court.

06:02Talk us through the kind of back and forth that you've seen

06:05and the idea that Putin might be there, clearly now he isn't.

06:10Yes, well, this was expected.

06:12And it's not the first time that Putin doesn't attend the G20 summit.

06:17South Africa has reneged on its decision to maybe leave the International Criminal Court.

06:22This was also under a different president than the current president, Ramaphosa.

06:27So, yes, it's committed to the International Criminal Court.

06:30And South Africa still has fairly good relations with Russia.

06:34And also the idea is that Russia would not want to embarrass South Africa by sending Putin here or having Putin decide to come to the country.

06:45So that was kind of decided way before Putin was going to send a high-level envoy.

06:51We thought he would be the foreign minister.

06:53But now I'm not sure who is coming in his place.

06:57But the foreign minister not attending has more to do with Russian internal politics than with the importance of the summit.

07:04So there will be somebody important from Russia.

07:06Russia has been in on many discussions already.

07:09Indeed, the G20 did not agree on a common position on Ukraine, as was to be expected.

07:16But again, the focus of President Ramaphosa and South Africa at large has been very much on priorities for Africa.

07:22So much less peace and security issues and much more things like debt sustainability, renewable energy, gender, health, that kind of thing.

07:31So the focus of the G20 has been on not really in a peace and security space.

07:37It is worth saying briefly as well, Pauline, in a world to which President Trump accuses South African government of a white genocide,

07:45that's been widely debunked by fact-checkers and the government and the police,

07:48it also doesn't meet with the current, there's this kind of push-pull factor, the opposite magnets right now.

07:54If you have a multilateralism government of countries working together on trade,

07:59the quid pro quo of the US, these things wouldn't meet anyway.

08:03It's kind of take all the oxygen out of the room and an agenda that wouldn't meet with the White House.

08:09Yes, I think the idea is that, you know, the US will not, a US leader will not attend the discussions on Saturday and Sunday.

08:21But all that US obstructionism that we've seen throughout the year will at least not hinder the discussions.

08:27So I think it's easier for nations to come together and make some compromises or agree perhaps on a joint declaration at the end

08:36without the US in the room taking the spotlight from everybody else.

08:41Really good to talk to you tonight. Pauline, thank you.

08:43Pauline Bags, TEXI Programme Director of the International Crisis Group in Johannesburg.

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