'Bamako on Edge': Mali’s Capital in the Crosshairs of Jihad and Geopolitics

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00:00the military regime in Mali is under intense pressure to retain control largely because of

00:14the shifting tactics of a jihadist movement in the past two months from attacks on the army a

00:19blockade instead on the fuel coming in to the country seizing petrol tankers blocking major

00:24highways meaning the country is being starved of fuel the price of petrol spiraling out of control

00:29and energy needed for industry including for the main export of the west african country gold

00:33seriously affected too and a un peacekeeping mission french forces who've been deployed

00:39in 2013 to deal with the coup threat and insurgency left in 2021 and 2022 after being kicked out by the

00:46military junta in the aftermath of two coups there and since russian paramilitaries welcomed to fill

00:52the vacuum and some analysts are now saying bamako could fall let's cross to washington dc let's bring

00:58in dr andrew libovic research fellow with the clinkendale conflict research unit a specialist

01:03expert on armed conflict religious mobilization and jihadist groups such as jnim or genim in

01:10mali welcome to france 24 dr libovic let's start andrew on the first probably most prescient question

01:16for people could bamako fall

01:18there's always a threat of further disruption in mali uh particularly given the tent that

01:25the intense situation the fuel blockade uh and ongoing tensions in the military government i think

01:30the the speculation that bamako was on the edge of collapse uh was exaggerating and we're seeing even

01:37in the last week and a half or so a bit of a relaxation situation it still remains uh very very tense

01:44there are still jnim forces uh surrounding bamako in different areas and enforcing some uh some checkpoints

01:52some blockades up parts of the roadways but there has been an effort both to to break a bit of that

01:58stranglehold uh and there's also been a movement of some jnim forces out of uh the immediate area

02:04around bamako as they've been needed elsewhere so it does seem that that things are uh becoming a

02:11little bit less tense but of course it still remains a very complicated situation tell us about jnim jn-i-m

02:18how big is the group uh where's its financing coming from

02:22uh well so jim has grown significantly over the years of course the group was formed uh or announced

02:30in 2017 out of a merger of different militant groups uh under the the al-qaeda banner so uh formed

02:37from al-qaeda in islamic magreb ansar al-din a group known as qatibat messina and several others

02:44five uh five in total and it is as i said it's grown significantly since then uh the washington

02:50post recently estimated uh jnim's level of fighters at about 6 000 i think the the real number is

02:57probably somewhat higher than that though it's impossible to get any real estimate for the group's

03:02strength uh and they derive their income from a number of sources uh very heavily weighted in favor

03:09of taxation or zakat uh under islamic law but then also other uh other forms of taxation and revenue

03:17generation including uh kidnapping for ransom the organization had for a time moved somewhat away

03:23from uh kidnapping europeans in particular as the number of foreigners in mali has decreased but of

03:30course they have for years been kidnapping and ransoming malians burkina bay in burkina basso

03:36and also nigerian officials and then recently there was a reported windfall for the group uh from the

03:43kidnapping of a prominent emirati hostage south of bamako uh which may have generated between 50 and

03:4970 million dollars in ransom or a million euro in ransom payments now of course the actual number is

03:55lower for a number of reasons but still the the group has been able to generate significant income

04:00from uh from various parts of their operations i'm just trying to understand that the extent of the

04:07the strength right now of the military uh hunter the regime trying to combat them and where the

04:14russian paramilitary comes into this as well and and how these blockades are continuing it we're

04:20assuming that in the past few weeks in the past few months there is a continuing effort from the army

04:25to try to push them back but it's clearly not working what's your understanding of its strengths

04:29uh well i think the the military was caught somewhat off guard by the uh durability of this

04:38blockade by the ability of j&m to not only enforce blockade but to destroy large numbers

04:43of fuel trucks in several very spectacular attacks uh on the road from senegal but also the road uh

04:51south of bamako toward guinea and then of course um roads connecting the capital and mali's second

04:57largest city sikaso with cote bar um and so that did take some time to adjust and then it also took

05:03time to mobilize assets including uh russian paramilitaries the africa corps to to begin protecting

05:11the convoys much more closely i think this effort has uh borne some fruit again in the last week and a

05:17half two weeks uh where the convoys have come under much closer protection not just from the of course

05:23from the military but from russian paramilitary forces um and there's also just been a concentration

05:27of troops to protect these convoys as the the situation became increasingly dire in bamako and so

05:35in bamako the situation is getting a bit better as i said not much but a bit better that said in other

05:42parts of the country uh the fuel shortages remain very severe uh there are parts of central mali

05:48where they have not had fuel and electricity for a month at this point or even more in some

05:55more uh more isolated areas so it remains extremely serious even if the situation is getting a bit

06:01better in bamako to try to understand that the wider geopolitics and how much of an effect it's having

06:07that's kind of making a rod for its own back in getting rid of the french getting rid of the the

06:13un peacekeeping mission not being part of ecowas the um the economic union um and being part of this

06:21other alliance with i think it's called the the alliance of um sahel states with burkina faso with

06:28niger as well which have also got military uh regimes in power is that part of the reason it's so

06:34isolated because the question is who can come in to help molly i think the combination of factors uh

06:42certainly the regional and international isolation the government has been a factor uh the removal of

06:48certain uh military assets but also intelligence cooperation with france also with the united states

06:53has been uh has been a factor uh at the same time molly has tried in different ways to strengthen

07:01their relationships with neighbors this has been kind of a halting process uh but with senegal for

07:06instance molly has tried to increase its military collaboration there have been some discussions with

07:10ivorian authorities as well and some uh information sharing and intelligence sharing uh but yes it's

07:16certainly been a factor i think also the shift the ongoing shift southward of the concentration of

07:24militant attacks and militant forces has also been a significant factor in this and i think an enduring

07:29factor in the challenges the government is facing because right now uh even though jenem may not be

07:36able to sustain this blockade uh sort of permanently what we're seeing is a much more durable implantation

07:44of jenem forces in southern mali uh southern mali near the border with cote d'ivoire but then also in

07:50parts of kai near the borders with martinia and senegal and then of course in areas north of bamako

07:56where these forces have been present for years but are establishing much more of an enduring presence

08:03and that's going to be an ongoing challenge for the government for a number of reasons

08:06because it means that increasingly the the militant threat is everywhere in the country and can be

08:14everywhere and so it's going to become much more difficult for malian forces to respond to these

08:19threats the situation has been getting progressively worse for years even before the withdrawal of french

08:24forces and un forces so this is not something that began with that withdrawal um but it is getting

08:30worse and this is one reason why no no i'm listening to you but in the meantime you have a population of

08:36what 20 million or more in stuck in the middle between a rock and a hard place a military regime

08:42there was some force upon it now also a jihadist group we're hearing some of the stories people in

08:47bamako struggling with daily living already conversations tell me about what you've been having with

08:52people to understand what's actually going on how ordinary people caught up in this are being

08:57affected in mali it's incredibly challenging for everyone in mali now of course there are some

09:04areas mali particularly in rural areas where people have been dealing with this for years with

09:09insecurity with the lack of state presence uh and where especially in central mali in parts of northern

09:14mali the communities have had to make their own arrangements uh what are known as either peace

09:19deals or local survival packs with jaynim in particular um in bamako the situation was extremely

09:27difficult for for quite some time people couldn't get gas uh they couldn't run generators uh so there's

09:33an enormous amount of concern about just the ability to do basic daily tasks and even as that's gotten a

09:39bit better um other parts of the country are still seeing as i said this incredibly challenging

09:46uh situation that is impacting their daily life in myriad ways and then there's ongoing concern about

09:53again other facets of daily life uh schools in mali were closed for about two weeks some of them have

09:58just started opening up um but this has been massively disruptive to daily life across the country and

10:04that's only going to get worse particularly as we've seen jaynim demonstrate this ability uh when they

10:11can concentrate forces to severely impact trade let's talk about what would be a clearly huge

10:18motivation for the jihadists the biggest export 70 80 percent of its exports are gold um the pre-2025

10:26estimates the baseline estimates 70 to 75 tons annually of gold valued at six to seven billion dollars now

10:34that's down we're told by two-thirds at around 50 tons so we're looking at maybe what five five and a

10:39a half billion a year now i want to quote this this is the russian yadran group according to

10:44uh the regime in mali that's a sovereign ally it's working with a kremlin backed and linked conglomerate

10:51aiming to process 100 tons by 2028 so we're talking about a motivating factor here for for russia to stay

10:59involved uh what are the what are the kremlin doing right now

11:03they're providing a significant amount of support through the africa corps which of course uh took

11:10over earlier this year for the wagner group uh the the famed and infamous russian mercenaries

11:16um so yes economic uh motivations are an important factor but also of course geopolitical motivations

11:22uh this has been an important space of expansion for russian foreign policy the russian government has

11:29put significant emphasis over the last several years in particular in uh rehabilitating their presence

11:35in africa particularly in the sahel and west africa and so this is both an economic and a political and

11:42geopolitical priority for the russian government uh but again one where we've seen i would say

11:47limited results for the moment even on the economic front there's not much of a clear indication

11:53that russia has been able to generate the kinds of uh for instance mining revenues that they were

11:59able to in the central african republic for instance uh the situation in the sal has proved much more

12:03complicated for them really good to talk to you thank you andrew dr andrew lubovic research fellow

12:08with a click and dial conflict research unit in washington dc

12:12you

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