00:00We can talk to Hulud Rhea now, founding director of the think tank Confluence Advisory, joining us from Nairobi.
00:08Thank you for joining us today.
00:10Can I start by asking you about the evidence that's emerging, new satellite images, about what is happening in Al-Fashr, what has happened?
00:20Can you tell us about what's going on there?
00:23Yeah, so it's very difficult to get a sense of what is happening on the ground in Al-Fashr because there's been a telecommunications blackout since early last year.
00:33And what we do know is happening is through either the videos that the RSF themselves are taking of their war crimes and atrocities against the people of Al-Fashr or through the Yale Observatory,
00:43which has been looking at the war since looking at atrocities and especially across Stafford since the beginning of the conflict in April 2023.
00:50And what they have seen is blood effectively on the ground that is seen from space.
00:56That is how much blood there is soaking the ground in Al-Fashr.
00:58They have seen the RSF go door to door, effectively killing people.
01:02They have seen movements of civilians as they try to flee and when they're being blocked by the RSF.
01:09And it's really the only insight we have of what's going on in Al-Fashr.
01:14That coupled with whatever witness testimonies are able to emerge.
01:17The leader of the Rapid Support Forces is apparently saying an investigation will take place into what he called violations committed by his soldiers.
01:27Is this credible? Is this going to happen? Will anyone be brought to justice for these killings?
01:33No, not at all. Part of the reason we are exactly where we are and we have seen not just this violence in Al-Fashr,
01:38but also in a town called Bahre in North Kordofan State.
01:42And of course, the violence of not just two years ago, but also 20 years ago, is that there has been a culture of impunity.
01:47And no one has ever faced justice for any kind of attack on the people of Darfur,
01:51with the exception of one case that was tried in The Hague and whose results we saw two weeks ago.
01:57So what effectively the RSF is doing is living within and relying on a culture of global and national impunity
02:04that has allowed them to attack and kill the people of Sudan without any accountability whatsoever.
02:10So this is just talk from the head of the RSF.
02:12Can we talk about why this is happening?
02:15Why is the RSF committing these atrocities and this level of violence?
02:21So there are several reasons. The RSF is made up of pastoralist groups who identify as Arab.
02:28And a lot of the violence they're meeting at is on sedentary groups or farmers who identify as African or non-Arab.
02:35And part of this goes back to the 80s, where resource distribution and resource usage,
02:39particularly in terms of land, was limited.
02:41But there have been successive bouts of violence, particularly supported by the government of Khartoum
02:46and the Sudanese armed forces 20 years ago.
02:48And a lot of the violence that we saw then was never really compensated.
02:52We never really saw equitable distribution of land.
02:55And so a lot of those grievances still exist.
02:58A peace agreement in 2020 has also driven a lot of the violence that we've seen
03:01because some of these pastoralist groups that make up the RSF forces see that they were sort of,
03:07you know, left out of that peace agreement.
03:09And now they're trying to settle scores with those that they've seen as benefiting from that peace agreement.
03:13But it really has been playing out in the most disastrous way,
03:17very much in line with the type of violence we saw 20 years ago and two years ago.
03:21And why was al-Fashir so strategically and maybe also symbolically important?
03:28It's historically been, you know, the capital of the entire Darfur region, which today is five states.
03:34And it's also historically important.
03:35But beyond that, getting control of al-Fashir is, for the RSF, important to shore up the western border of Sudan
03:42and their supply routes for fuel and weapons, mostly coming in from the United Arab Emirates,
03:47that transit through Libya, Central African Republic, Chad, and parts of South Sudan.
03:52And so this, they feel, will allow them to redeploy not just troops,
03:55but a lot of those weapons into the southwesterly Kurdofan region,
03:59where they hope to make progress next, and then further eastward towards the capital and then the Red Sea.
04:05What are you hearing about civilians still trapped there?
04:09Are there any safe corridors at all being negotiated?
04:12I mean, is there any way out?
04:15There are two or three main ways out, two to the south and one to the north.
04:19But what we're hearing, and unfortunately what the satellite imagery is also telling us,
04:24is that very few people are actually able to make it out, even if those routes are relatively open.
04:28And there's a nearby town called Tawila, which is operated by and controlled by a different armed group,
04:34and so is seen as relatively safe.
04:36And the number of people that have made it to Tawila are around 5,000,
04:40according to international organizations working there.
04:43But the number of people in al-Fashir before these violent attacks was 260,000,
04:48half of whom are 130,000, according to the United Nations.
04:52So clearly there are a lot of people who have not been able to make it out as yet,
04:55and are still stuck in al-Fashir, facing the atrocities of the rapid support forces.
05:01Let's talk about the international community.
05:04Is there any pressure at all being exerted by the international community,
05:08given the horrific images we're seeing, the evidence that's now coming to light?
05:15Certainly no public pressure.
05:17When you speak to diplomats, when you speak to decision makers, particularly in Western capitals,
05:21they tell you that privately they're having conversations with, particularly the United Arab Emirates,
05:24which has been the main weapon supply of the RSF.
05:27But it doesn't seem like they're getting much traction there.
05:29Publicly, they're saying nothing.
05:31A lot of the statements that are being released by the UK, the US, the UN, the AU,
05:37the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, which is the regional bloc,
05:41the Sudan is part of, all the European Union, all of these institutions and countries
05:44are not naming the United Arab Emirates and not naming the types of violence that we're seeing,
05:49atrocities, genocidal violence.
05:50And that is a huge problem in terms of confronting, you know, the kind of violence that we're seeing
05:55and hopefully putting a stop to it so the people of Darfur are effectively alone.
05:59Can you name one concrete measure that the UN or the international community could take now
06:05to stop this violence, to stop more people from being killed?
06:08So 20 years ago, we'd have been looking at things like, you know, a peacekeeping force.
06:14We would have been looking at things like the Responsibility to Protect doctrine really being
06:17put into place and the United Nations Security Council putting together a meeting and actually
06:22putting forward resolutions that they intend to implement.
06:24Today, we have resolutions that no one's looking to implement, including Resolution 2736 of last year.
06:29We have a Darfur arms embargo that no one is also looking to implement.
06:33We have very little appetite for peacekeeping forces.
06:36So it's very difficult to see with the tools that we have what is possible.
06:39But at the very least, there should be enough pressure on the RSF and their leadership,
06:43as well as their friends in the UAE and regional countries in Africa,
06:47to stop the flow of arms that is facilitating much of this violence.
06:51Thank you so much for speaking to us, Khaloud Ghaer,
06:53Director of the Confluence Advisory Think Tank.
06:56We appreciate it.
06:58Thank you very much.
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