00:00There's a phrase you used last time around that stuck with both of us. We've been repeating it over the last several weeks. Macro paralysis. Can you adjust that term now? What phrase would you use to describe this moment?
00:12First of all, it was good to be here. I think I would frame it right now is a macro political pivot. The administration clearly, I agree. I think that Monday meeting with the retail executives was a, I don't want to call it watershed, but it was a critical moment
00:29for the administration to hear about the challenges on the ground of their plan. And the administration certainly has not admitted they made a mistake, but they've clearly pivoted.
00:41And that's not a surprise. And it's not a surprise that they're out going around the globe right now trying to and successfully inking a lot of deals, a lot of MOUs that are non-binding.
00:53But certainly it's great headlines and it's hundreds of billions, if not trillions.
00:58But so that's why I think. And I think the big question now is I'll pull back in the covid library.
01:05There's a big gap between confidence, sentiment and the results and confidence and sentiment is still pretty negative or concerned.
01:15But the results have been pretty strong. And so there's a very if you think about, you know, we're all, you know, history of the past and we we we see signs of what we've seen in the past and pattern recognition, if you will.
01:32And, you know, if you input all the things that you see right now, you would have been saying recession went from 30 percent to 70, 80 percent.
01:41Now it's probably below 50 percent. But the three questions are, does the consumer do do corporates and countries?
01:50Are they going to be on the V shape recovery, the U shape recovery or the L shape recovery?
01:55Our view at Apollo is right now that the consumer is still pretty strong, a bit of a V shape recovery, corporates, a bit of a U shape recovery because a lot of CapEx.
02:05And I've been traveling around quite a bit. And I think the global response is a bit more like the L.
02:11And what you pointed out earlier, what Anne-Marie did with with Tim Cook, I am not surprised.
02:16None of us should be surprised that this administration is going to put their arm around all these tech titans and other other leaders and saying, come to America.
02:25China was not the plan. We didn't love the idea of going India. Come back to the U.S.
02:30This is going to be a theme that they're going to keep hitting, hitting, hitting.
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