00:00Well, this is not good news, considering it's the second week in a row that we see a decline in ADP.
00:05Average 13,500 jobs a week were lost in the four weeks to November 8th.
00:11Now, remember, this is a four-week moving average, and it's also a couple of weeks behind.
00:16But it is the latest information that we have from ADP, and it isn't particularly good news.
00:22We will get the monthly numbers next week, and that may give us a better clue as to where the labor market is.
00:29But it certainly looks like the weekly ADP numbers, to the extent you can trust them, are making the case that the doves were making the last couple days and suggesting that the Fed might want to cut rates again.
00:40The idea that private payroll losses are accelerating in the past four weeks, Mike, speaks to what we heard in the Wall Street Journal article with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly when she was talking about how she has seen a real-time deterioration in the labor market.
00:55How much is that sort of coalescing, that idea kind of bringing together a lot of the Fed members based on just what's happening on the ground over the past few weeks?
01:06Well, you look at the number of Open Market Committee members who have said they are open to or want to cut rates,
01:14and you can see that there is a trend that has solidified since the last Fed meeting when Jay Powell told us it was not by any means a foregone conclusion that they would cut.
01:25It seems that a lot of these Fed officials talking to businesses around their districts have seen that companies are going ahead.
01:33And this was always a question out there would be when do companies have to make a decision one way or another about personnel while they wait for the confusion about Trump's economic policies to clear up.
01:46Hasn't cleared up, and they do seem to be making some decisions now.
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