00:00Personal income up eight-tenths of a percent, personal spending two-tenths of a percent.
00:05Spending went up by seven-tenths in the month of March, so a drop-off there.
00:10We're waiting on the price numbers to come through here, and we have a PCE price index headline of just a tenth of a percent,
00:18which pushes the year-over-year number down to 2.1 percent.
00:23We are just a tenth of a percent away from the Fed's target.
00:26The core is up a tenth of a percent on a year-over-year basis.
00:31That falls to two-and-a-half from 2.6 percent.
00:34The other number that we're watching today, the advanced goods trade balance comes in significantly.
00:40We're going to have to get a breakdown on that in a couple of days when we get the full numbers for this.
00:44But $87.6 billion, that's down from $162.3 billion in the month of March.
00:53And, of course, that was what everybody was trying to pull forward, all of the imports they could get before we got to the tariffs.
01:01So a major change here in the trade situation that should add to growth for the month of April.
01:10And PCE comes in, as expected, lower than anticipated.
01:14Incomes were good.
01:15I'll look for the breakdown on that.
01:16And personal spending falls off, again, after people maybe front-run the tariffs a little bit.
01:22What are you finding in terms of that personal income pop and what we're seeing about where people are spending?
01:28Well, what we're seeing about where people are spending is an interesting change from last month.
01:32Last month, 56 percent increase in the number of automobiles bought.
01:37But in April, housing and utilities were the biggest expenses, up 24.7 percent.
01:43Health care follows that, and food services and accommodations.
01:49Automobiles, transportation falls to negative 4.5 percent.
01:54So people's increased spending by 56 percent in March, and it dropped off to 4.5 percent in the month of – negative 4.5 percent in the month of April.
02:05The other thing I can tell you is that the goods imports fell by 20 percent, basically, during the month of April.
02:12And that is the biggest drop on record.
02:14So what we did see was a lot of front-running as people anticipated the tariffs coming.
02:20In terms of the personal income, wages and salaries up five-tenths of a percent.
02:26That's the same as we've seen for the last three months.
02:29Disposable personal income, eight-tenths percent higher.
02:32And the savings rate jumps to 4.9 percent.
02:36So it looks like Americans are preparing for a maybe bad period during the economy.
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