00:00Well, we have a little bit of a low surprise on the monthly numbers and a little bit of an exact number on the year-over-year.
00:09CPI monthly up three-tenths of a percent.
00:11Remember, there were no October numbers, so the November numbers didn't get into this as a month-over-month thing.
00:17But the three-tenths translates into 2.7 percent year-over-year.
00:21CORE comes in at two-tenths gain.
00:23That translates to a 2.6 percent year-over-year number.
00:27There were some expectations we would see a bigger rise in some of these numbers because of the government shutdown and the way things were put together for October and November.
00:37But it looks like we didn't have any kind of major snapback.
00:41Mike, as you look at that downside surprise, which is certainly what this market is trading on, what's behind it?
00:47Well, it looks at this point like a lot of it has to do with gasoline prices down a half percent on the month.
00:54Most other categories seem to be up, although we did see a drop of 1.1 percent for used cars.
01:03That was somewhat predicted.
01:05The interesting thing is housing, as you were talking about, because there was a feeling that the lack of October data would depress the housing numbers and keep them depressed.
01:15But we see the owner's equivalent rent come in by three-tenths gain.
01:21That's up a little bit.
01:22And rent itself up four-tenths on the month.
01:26Lodging away from home is one of the biggest movers.
01:29Hotels up three and a half percent.
01:31That looks like it's incorporating some distortion from the government shutdown.
01:37And apparel up six-tenths of a percent.
01:39That's not a surprise.
01:41There was an anticipation that the November numbers had been depressed by discounting for Black Friday, so we would see a rebound.
01:47And that's one area in which we do see a rebound.
01:50Goods prices were flat on the month.
01:52Services prices up three-tenths.
01:55So all in all, a fairly contained report.
01:58But we do have to caution that because of the shutdown, there are going to be distortions in this data.
02:04And we'll have to figure out which of these numbers are the most distorted.
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