- 2 months ago
As the global order shifts into a multipolar world, ASEAN’s cherished principle of centrality faces its biggest test yet. Can the bloc remain neutral amid escalating US-China tensions, or will it be forced to pick sides? In this episode of Woo Says, Professor Emeritus Datuk Woo Wing Thye and Faye Kwan explore the fragile balance of ASEAN diplomacy.
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00:00Hello and welcome back to Woosys where we get real about the US, China, everything and
00:16everywhere in between these two superpowers.
00:20As Malaysia prepares to host the 47th ASEAN Summit, the bloc finds itself navigating a
00:26more fragmented world and under Malaysia's chairmanship, the theme of inclusivity and
00:33sustainability has really taken centre stage.
00:36So what does ASEAN centrality really mean in today's world and can the bloc still remain
00:42neutral as global rivalries intensify?
00:45Now joining me today to explore this further is Professor Datuk Wu Wingtai.
00:51Thank you Prof for being here as always.
00:53Happy to be here.
00:55Always a pleasure to have you.
00:56Now we are seeing a rather crowded table and guest list this year at the ASEAN Summit.
01:02You have Brazil's Lula, India's Modi, South Africa's Ramaphosa, Japan, UK, Australia.
01:11The first three that I mentioned really is all pushing for the idea of a new multipolar order.
01:20Where do you think?
01:21Where does this leave ASEAN in the emerging power map?
01:25Well, first of all, as you can see, the global governance system is unfortunately breaking down.
01:38The United States has basically stopped WTO from working by refusing to appoint someone to the mediation court.
01:56And without mediation responsibilities, WTO basically stops having a purpose.
02:05And if you look at the United States steady withdrawal from the United Nations agencies, like it's getting out from UNESCO, and it even says that UN agencies should move and operate somewhere else rather than in the United States, which the UN now sensibly sees is a good idea.
02:10Because it's also cheaper to operate outside mainland USA.
02:40The global governance is much weaker, if not disintegrating, but we cannot do without cooperation among countries.
02:57So regionalism naturally has to arise to take its place.
03:04Otherwise, how do you fight pandemics?
03:10You need cooperation.
03:12The WHO has a very important mission.
03:16And how do you fight climate change?
03:19You need a global effort.
03:22But if you don't have a global effort, each of the regions that believes in it should continue to undertake the task.
03:32Like Europe is going on ahead with its climate action programs.
03:40It hasn't canceled any of them, unlike the United States, which Donald Trump says will go back to oil.
03:47But one day the US will wake up and decide that it will have to join us in fighting climate change.
03:55So it is the regions that will have to cooperate in many of these global challenges.
04:04Like for ASEAN, one of the things that we want to do is to decarbonize our energy generation system.
04:13We don't want to burn oil and gas.
04:16We want to have green sun, you know, solar energy, wind energy, hydropower.
04:22Now, having self-sufficiency in green energy makes no sense.
04:30Because the cost of producing solar power is a lot higher in Singapore than in Malaysia.
04:36But the cost of solar power is even cheaper in other parts of mainland Southeast Asia.
04:43And hydropower in Laos is cheaper than any of them.
04:48So in order to do the decarbonization of the power sector, ASEAN has gone ahead with pushing the ASEAN power grid project.
05:04So regionalism has come to replace global partnerships.
05:13Largely because you cannot have a global partnership when one of the biggest countries in the world does not want to play ball.
05:20So ASEAN therefore has become more important than ever.
05:27Right. Well, thank you for mentioning that.
05:32And thank you for also using the climate issue as sort of an example, given that the US at least is being led by someone who believes that climate change is a con job, as mentioned at his speech in the UN.
05:48And as you said that ASEAN is now a block that is more important than ever.
05:54But with growing regionalism then, alongside BRICS, which is now expanding its membership, how do you see this reshaping ASEAN's relationships?
06:05That means that the regions that have similar agenda would form a group among themselves.
06:17For example, the BRICS are trying to become a self-help society.
06:28They have set up the new development bank, largely because the World Bank, which is under the control of the United States, will have its funding, most likely cut.
06:45It would be unlikely to be increased.
06:48And if you look at the Asian Development Bank, where the US also has a large share, that is not going to increase its capital base to help with the funding efforts to undertake the green transformation.
07:07So we need the big countries, the richer of the middle powers to pay, to help pay for the green transformation of those who cannot afford it.
07:23Because we are in this all together. If one part does not have the green transformation, we are not handling climate change correctly.
07:34So ASEAN, therefore, is stepping forward in the roles of playing coordination, not only within its borders, but in partnership with other regional groupings.
07:52Like for example, Latin America and Africa.
07:57And it is true that BRICS doesn't look like a particularly neutral grouping because none of the Western Europeans are in it.
08:12And the United States is a target of criticism by many Greek countries, particularly Russia and China.
08:22But if the United States forms a club that is willing to extend economic assistance to the rest of the world, if it forms a club to fight climate change, if the US change, I think we should join the US-initiated club too.
08:46Basically, ASEAN centrality, the new meaning is we are neutral, but not neutral in the sense of we would not join anybody.
09:02It is neutral in the sense of we join everybody, but we work with them depending on the issues.
09:14For example, when it comes to the South China Sea, the freedom of passage, we are with the Americans.
09:25And we do not recognize the Chinese sole ownership of the South China Sea.
09:31But when it comes to Palestine, we are definitely not on the side of the Americans.
09:38So non-partisan neutrality here means that we do not have whole scale alignment with any one party of the Cold War.
09:55We will choose our side on each issue according to our values and our interests.
10:05So I think ASEAN neutrality really is a code word for non-alignment where we pick partnerships with the two great powers on an issue-by-issue basis.
10:23And that is really on the economic side.
10:26But since we are talking about ASEAN neutrality, how about on regional issues, including the ongoing conflict in Myanmar?
10:34We are seeing ASEAN signs of non-interference really not showing any sort of progress in terms of the conflict that is going on there.
10:45How does centrality play in this context?
10:48Well, in this case, I am pretty sure, but I could be corrected, that while the Myanmar Head of State does not attend Myanmar summits,
11:06the Myanmar participation in the various working groups continue, like they were at the ASEAN minister meeting, for example.
11:25So as you could see that despite our expression of disapproval of what's happening in Myanmar,
11:36Myanmar still wants to be part of a club.
11:40And while the head of state does not attend ASEAN summits, the normal operations of ASEAN go on in the working groups.
11:54So you could see that ASEAN centrality in this case has meant ASEAN durability in its range of operations.
12:05And in terms of that economic divergence that you were speaking about, deciding to choose our sides,
12:11how effective do you think the bloc can really be under such strain?
12:14You know, South China Sea facing domestic issues within Myanmar.
12:18How effective do you think ASEAN can be in playing its role?
12:22I think if the tension between US and China were to get hotter,
12:35well, I'm trying to avoid to use the word worsen,
12:39if the tensions were to go up,
12:42it becomes more important than ever for us to get as many other groups of other middle powers to join us in being neutral,
13:00and picking sides on an issue-by-issue basis.
13:05Because we do not want to be caught in a proxy war between the two powers.
13:12So the role of ASEAN by itself is not enough to affect the behaviour of the two major powers,
13:23but if Malaysia, Brazil, South Africa and Nigeria are able to work together,
13:35pushing for the maintainer, we operate according to the principles of the United Nations and the principles of WTO.
13:45In other words, China, Russia and the US may play, may have conflict with each other,
13:54but then we will among ourselves, we will not repeat what the struggles that they are engaged in.
14:06They can put tariffs against each other, but we are not going to put tariffs against ourselves,
14:12or to take a stand on anything but multilateral free trade system of WTO.
14:24And when it comes to engaging those middle powers, or as you've mentioned before, the rest of the West,
14:31ASEAN is still a relatively small power, if you were to compare it with, say, the EU and other blocs.
14:39How do you think ASEAN can really claim real leadership here and ensuring that ASEAN's voice as a bloc is heard,
14:50rather than being shaped by external powers?
14:54Well, right now, ASEAN has a population of 700 million. That is the same size, same population size of Europe, Canada, Australia, Japan and South Korea.
15:16Right.
15:17And what is the difference in our standard of living comes from the fact that our technological level is lower than in these countries.
15:28countries. The average income is roughly twice, two and a half times of the ASEAN average.
15:40That shows you that our growth potential is very high. In other words, we will catch up to the technological level of the Australians,
15:54Japanese, and the Europeans. And when we do, together, this grouping will be larger than the United States GDP, but at least twice.
16:09At that point in time, both China and the US certainly cannot do without a partnership with this larger grouping.
16:27And why would the Europeans want to group with us? It is because we are inevitably going to be as big as they are in economic terms.
16:42And that, for them, is a great business opportunity.
16:49I'm curious, you said you are optimistic that we are able to catch up, obviously.
16:54How long do you think that realistically, for us to be on even ground, how long do you think that would take?
17:01Well, I think that all countries have that capability of catching up because I do believe that the IQ level of any national population has the same distribution and the same average.
17:21And it is the task of each national government to be able to bring high-quality education to its population and to fund it.
17:33And nowadays, it is much easier because we can get the transfer of knowledge not just from the US and Europe, but also from China.
17:49We like why aren't Malaysian universities partnering up with the Tsinghua, Beida, and Harbin Institute of Technology.
18:05Those are technological powerhouses.
18:09Look at EVs.
18:12The Chinese are certainly at the frontier of robotics, and that is something that we can get the Chinese to help us in setting up such schools.
18:26Just like India had the Indian Institute of Technology, which was set up by the best universities of the major Western countries when it was set up.
18:40So we should be partnering up with the top European and top Chinese, Japanese and Korean universities.
18:52We have to recognize that the West, specifically Europe and the United States, Canada and Australia, are the only sources of technological diffusion to ASEAN.
19:08You've laid out some interesting suggestions there, and clearly there is room for a lot of open opportunities and collaboration.
19:20So what really is holding ASEAN back from acting on all of this?
19:24I think part of it has to do with a sense of nationalism, that we somehow believe that language is more important than content.
19:48I like to think of the change in France over the years.
19:57In the old days, the French were very focused on promoting the French language, Allons-Francais.
20:05It's set up all around the world.
20:07So now the French have decided it is not the French language that's important, but it's French values that are important.
20:19The French perspective on things that are important.
20:24So it is the content that is much more important than language.
20:31Largely because the French language would never disappear if you look at the population of France, right?
20:37So similarly, when you look at education in all the ASEAN countries, all their mother tongues would survive.
20:46But why can't we not have an integrated ASEAN education system?
20:55And that is possible only when we adopt a common language.
21:01Because then there will be real flow of knowledge between Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Myanmar and so forth.
21:11The failure of allowing the use of English.
21:21And I think a false sense of education is for nation building.
21:28Rather than that, there are lots of ways to have nation building besides through the education system.
21:35So we should primarily let the education system be a mechanism to teach technological skills as well as moral value systems of the world.
21:58We have to be global citizens.
22:00Our education system are too obsessed with nation building.
22:05Where we now, where most national curriculums have, where the national history component is disproportionately big.
22:17And the history of the rest of the world is in a microscopic form.
22:22This is very unfortunate.
22:25Let me say, if you look at the European Union, the most common language used in the European Parliament is English.
22:34Even though, after Brexit, UK is certainly not part of EU anymore.
22:41And you look at the European Central Bank, its meetings are held using English.
22:47Even though UK was never a member of the European Central Bank.
22:56I think that if we can get past a narrow sense of language chauvinism.
23:02If we have more confidence in the value of our own culture, that it will not be so easily annihilated because of the use of foreign language in some activities.
23:20It's just like people used to equating modernization with Westernization.
23:27That we would lose our values.
23:29Japan has modernized.
23:32Japanese would want to say that the Japanese today are less Japanese than the Japanese in 1868 before the Meiji Restoration.
23:47So I think we have to think strongly about what can we do in a globalized society.
23:59And that is recognizing our identity, but having the confidence to pick up foreign aspects that are useful to empowering ourselves in technology.
24:22And the political will involved there to really take that step forward.
24:27I think these are some great ideas that you have outlined, Prof.
24:32But if we're bringing it back to the upcoming 47th ASEAN Summit.
24:37Is there anything you think that can be brought up in practice at the summit in just three days?
24:43Is there anything you are particularly looking forward to?
24:46Well, one thing for sure is now that we have got the ASEAN power grid pretty much agreed upon and would implement.
24:58The next thing we want to do is to think about biodiversity protection.
25:04Thinking specifically about the migration of movement of animals across national borders.
25:14That we want to do this artificial separation of the rainforest into this part is mine and that part is yours.
25:26And when we do national development, we don't take into account that the roads are built in this country could block off the migration of animals from the other country and hence lead to the reduction in the population of that animal in both countries.
25:45I think there has to be better coordination in environmental management.
25:52Specifically, I am leading a team that is working on how can we coordinate environmental management on the island of Borneo.
26:04So I've got teams in all the Kalimantan universities, Sabah, Sarawak and Brunei.
26:12I think that should be expanded to a wider group in mainland Southeast Asia.
26:21Another one would be the conservation of ASEAN marine life because if you look at ASEAN, 50% of it is water.
26:38And so we've got to be able to undertake conservation, responsible stewardship of the oceans of Southeast Asia.
26:51And since China claims to be a partner in it too, I think if there's any one thing that China must do is to also participate.
27:01At least in the enforcement of the management of the protection of marine life.
27:09Because of all the Chinese have so many Coast Guard ships floating around, they might as well make sure there's no overfishing of the South China Sea.
27:20One thing they could agree on is to have the equivalent of the European Erasmus programs.
27:27In the Erasmus program, university students could take courses in any of the European universities and the credits are recognized.
27:40So ASEAN could certainly set up such an arrangement among ourselves.
27:49So that our young people know each other so that culturally we are much more informed about each other and have comfort level.
28:01So one thing that this meeting should be, should be an education summit.
28:06Which is that there should be the starting of the ASEAN equivalent of the Erasmus program.
28:14And that would trigger down to fostering better collaboration and understanding within the block.
28:20We would know each other's market a lot better.
28:23Yeah.
28:24Right.
28:25Well thank you so much Prof Wu.
28:26A very interesting conversation with you as always.
28:29Thank you for sharing your insights.
28:31This has been Wu Sis.
28:33I'm Fei Kuan.
28:34Thank you very much for watching and see you next time.
28:36I'll see you next time.
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