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In this episode of #WooSays, Professor Emeritus Datuk Woo Wing Thye and Hafiz Marzukhi unpack U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent Asia tour — a whirlwind of summits, handshakes, and headlines. Was it a diplomatic charm offensive, or a transactional push to secure American leverage in the region? The conversation dives into what Trump’s engagements reveal about Washington’s shifting priorities, ASEAN’s delicate balancing act, and whether Asia can turn U.S. unpredictability into an opportunity for regional leadership.
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01:42That's a good thing that got him elected. And you are right, he certainly showcased
01:49that the United States is a very powerful country and that most countries
01:58except for China did pay a semi homage to American power. As you would remember
02:08when he arrived in Malaysia, one of the first things he did was to preside,
02:18be present at the peace signing treaty between Thailand and Cambodia showing American ability
02:25to impose peace on warring countries just as it brought about peace in Gaza.
02:33And we could also see the South Koreans truly being experts in the arts of
02:45if you like to look important, we will make you look important. They gave him a golden crown,
02:53a replica of an ancient Korean crown. That is certainly very symbolic.
02:59You are the tops and it was also over the top, you could say. And in the case of Japan,
03:08it is important to note that no trade treaty was signed in Japan despite the long negotiations.
03:15But he did get the accolade from the new prime minister that she would nominate him for the Nobel
03:22Peace Prize. Again. Abe said that several years ago and now she's renewing Japan's pledge to do so.
03:32Although the question is why hasn't Japan done it when it said so some years ago. The reason is because
03:40the Nobel Peace Prize is not decided by nomination from countries but individuals are not solicited and
03:50they are the ones who are not nominated. So the most important thing is that it is a show of power
03:57that you could see by the presence, the kind of respect that the Japanese show and it's also shown
04:08in the slew of treaties that were signed. And you could say these treaties that were signed
04:16they show the extractive ability of a mighty state. For example, in the treaty that is signed with Malaysia,
04:32it says that Malaysia should not sign any FTA which the US does not approve of.
04:43and it also says the partner countries like Malaysia would not undertake a whole bunch of
05:00other production agreements and so forth which threaten US national security. This particular language
05:10which was not unique in the treaty with Malaysia is also found in the treaty which was signed at the same time
05:16with Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam. So you could see that it is not just one country that bows.
05:26Three other Southeast Asian countries went along with the same language.
05:31Yes. And the most important interesting thing is for the case of in each of these cases, they specify
05:40how much these countries ought to invest in the United States. Like in the case of Japan, Japan was to
05:48invest 550 billion dollars in the United States in investments chosen by Donald Trump, which is stunning.
06:00In other words, I want you to invest in my country but you can only invest in what I tell you to invest.
06:05Yes. In the case of Korea, he said you have to invest 350 billion dollars. So the first impression is
06:14we are powerful and when we want you to do something, you do it. That's the second big impression.
06:21It's interesting that you describe it that way as I was listening in the way you described somehow
06:26the image that popped up in my mind is the image of a bully. But let's not go there.
06:32However, you know, there are critics within Malaysia and I'm sure within the region who are saying,
06:38since you touch about the usage of language, there's some degree of selling out sovereignty.
06:46you know, those kinds of terms were used. What are your thoughts on that? Because I'm sure on one side
06:53you could say that. However, if you were to look at other countries also following the same language,
07:00how do we reconcile the things that we negotiate with the U.S. knowing how powerful
07:06are they as you've described? The word bully is certainly applicable in the behavior of Donald
07:16Trump. The good thing is he's a bully not only to the rest of the world, he's also a bully within his
07:23own country. Basically, if he thinks he can get away with it by pushing you down and extracting something
07:33from you, he would go ahead and do it. Out of the deal, right? Well, of unfair treaties.
07:43But the important thing to realize is that there are two dimensions to consider. When you agree to such
07:52a treaty that has such unfair language, the first question is, is this a permanent
08:02agreement to be bullied? Or is this something that you and I agree on, but you are in no position
08:13to enforce it? In other words, I agree to do the following, but if I don't do it, there's nothing you can
08:21do. So clearly, we need the U.S. market right now. Because look at the number of semiconductor factories
08:34in Benang, the chief buyer is the American market. So for the sake of these people, we can swallow our pride
08:45and agree to it. But let's think of what happens in the long run. In the long run, we will start to
08:56develop access to other markets and the U.S. become less important. And when the U.S. becomes less
09:03important, the U.S. will be less willing to enforce whatever punishments it said that it was going to do.
09:12This is not unique to us. You can see it in the United States. The United States has come to a truce
09:23on the trade in rare earth with China. China has a chokehold on the supply of rare earth. So it's
09:32using it to its advantage in its acquisition with China. And what is the United States doing? One of the
09:38other treaties that the U.S. has signed beside this trade treaties is an agreement on the development
09:49of rare earth exports from Malaysia and from Cambodia. So you could see that the U.S. is
10:01is trying to break the chokehold that China has. Similarly, in the short run, we have to give in to the
10:11chokehold that the U.S. has on where our products are going. But in the long run, long run, the U.S.
10:21would not be able to have that because we'll be stupid not to be diversifying our trade partners.
10:28Yes. And it would be stupid for China not to step in and say, come, let me help you on the various
10:38fronts, other countries. Basically, ASEAN itself is going to become more united. And when we are more
10:46united as a group, we can renegotiate with the U.S. in the future. The important thing is the treaties
10:56stabilize the situation to no more than 19% tariff rate. That's very important because the alternative
11:06is 25 or higher. So let's stabilize the situation while we look for ways to relax the U.S. chokeholds.
11:17The other thing, so that's one dimension, the long run, short run dimension. Short run, we have no,
11:22no, basically, we don't have many cards. But long run, we will find alternatives.
11:29The world situation may change. The second dimension I want to talk about is that many of these
11:36agreements, while they sound very harsh, come with qualifying clauses. For example, the one about you
11:47you cannot sign an FTA for another country that the U.S. deems may threaten U.S. national security.
11:55Yes. What that particular clause was, it gives the right of the U.S. to terminate the agreement.
12:07It does not give the U.S. the right to say you cannot sign.
12:10I see. It says that if you sign, this treaty will no longer be in effect. In other words,
12:18there'll be no more guarantee of a ceiling of 19% for you, bad boy. So it is not prevented,
12:26it's not a legal agreement saying that they can prevent us. It means that they can just break the
12:33treaty. Just like we can break the treaty too. And some of the other clauses that we identified
12:42in different articles criticizing the U.S. Malaysian treaty are things like the U.S. will impose,
12:51it gives the right to the U.S. to impose sanctions on us. But there are qualifying phrases like
12:59, we will have to agree to an implementation time period for Malaysia to correct the situation.
13:11And the implementation time period is to be agreed by both parties.
13:20Yes. In other words, we can buy time in that they cannot just say you have broken the treaty and we
13:26are going to impose this on you by the rights of what you have signed. What it means is now we're
13:31going to start discussing when Malaysia will stop that particular behavior that it finds offensive.
13:41And the most important thing to say is that this is a treaty that has to be ratified by the U.S. Congress
13:51in order for it to be legally binding. This is just a statement signed by both parties,
14:04which so it doesn't have to force in law. Well, of course, this may not be a flitter consolation
14:11because Donald Trump has shown himself to be pretty lawless regardless of what U.S. Congress
14:17was supposed to do. He has ignored all of them anyway. And the U.S. Congress has basically
14:26been a pussycat being pushed around by the bully. So all of this again rests on one big decision that's
14:37coming down in the U.S. The two U.S. courts have ruled that Donald Trump's trade policies
14:47are against the law because these policies are the province of U.S. Congress, not the U.S. President.
15:00So in other words, since he's making decisions on things that Congress should be doing, not him,
15:05the lower courts have said they are illegal. The Supreme Court is now having to decide that.
15:12So there's some uncertainty whether this thing would come about or not. So yes, they are very worried
15:21language. But however, because of the qualifying phrase and because some of them involve
15:29termination of the treaty rather than their right to veto us in those treaties.
15:36Now having said all that, Prof, I have to ask you and I can't ask for the other countries.
15:42But as far as Malaysia is concerned, do you think the Anwar administration
15:48is it pragmatic in negotiating this or accepting this deal? Are they just being pragmatic?
15:55Basically, you've got a gun to your hand, to your head. Because this person would unilaterally
16:06impose tariffs that are not set by U.S. law, but by his particular mood. So given such an individual,
16:20you have to prevent the situation from getting out of hand. You could see that this is not,
16:26this reaction is not unique to Anwar. Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand join us in doing the same thing.
16:34So it means that it is the independent assessments of all these four countries.
16:44In the short run, let's stabilize the situation. And when, and when, if things started moving in,
16:52in the direction we don't like, then we will have to rethink.
16:56Re-negotiate, yeah. Exactly. So, yeah, go ahead please.
17:01Yeah, I mean, looking at all this and I've known you've, you, you have long studied the balance of
17:07great powers. Has Trump's, this, has this, the recent Trump visit kind of changed the equilibrium
17:17between U.S. and China, or this merely reinforced Beijing's narrative that Washington just not in the
17:25best position, or doesn't have long-term consistency, doesn't have the, or so to say, the other country's
17:34interest at heart. Does that reinforce that narrative?
17:39I think you summarize it very accurately. There are two impressions that are very clear from the
17:48APEC meeting in Seoul. Even though Donald Trump got a crown of gold, the Chinese actually gave him a
17:59crown of thorns. Because there was one, there was one very important substantial, substantive
18:07thing that came up. There's a very substantive thing that came out. It's the U.S.-China agreement on,
18:17on the export of rare earth. Let us go back a little bit. In, I think it was around
18:28July or August at the London trade talks between Wang Yi and Scott Besson. They came to an agreement
18:40on what, how China would export, would loosen up its export of rare earth and the U.S. would loosen up
18:47on its export of high-tech chips. So that was the truth. And in a few weeks later, the U.S.
18:57Treasury issued a list of more Chinese firms that will be on the blacklist to be unable to import
19:08the highest, the most advanced chips. When the U.S. Treasury took that, the Chinese saw it as a violation of the
19:18truth Because the truth is a ceasefire. And here you are introducing a new blacklist.
19:25So the Chinese quickly ratcheted up the controls on red earth. And Donald Trump immediately said,
19:33I will impose 100% on China.
19:38and trumped back down the very next day. Because when he realized imposing that 100% tariff,
19:50it is not going to, number one, make China roll it back. And it will
19:54that under continued heavier restriction on export, red earth export to the U.S.,
20:04will cripple the U.S. economy. So he quickly rolled back and said, Oh, we are not going to talk about
20:10this 100% But yes, we have to discuss this issue. So they met in Seoul. And what did we have?
20:19The Americans suspended that list of additional companies to be blacklisted. And the Chinese
20:26say, Okay, because you do it, we will go back to be more relaxed on red earth. But we think that
20:34your tariff rate is still too high. So the Americans had imposed a 20% general tariff on
20:43Chinese goods to punish China for exporting the raw material to make Ferdinand, which is the drug
20:51that is most commonly smuggled across from Mexico to the U.S. So the Chinese have said,
21:02We are doing a lot to control the export of these raw materials that make Ferdinand. So Donald Trump reduced
21:10that rate from 20 to 10. Now, what do we have? We have a concession. The concession was the lowering of that
21:20tax. So when the U.S. Treasury Department broke the truce with that additional list of blacklisted
21:29companies. And now it has rolled it back. But at the same time, it also rolled back 10% of the 20%
21:39tariffs on Chinese goods. And you know what that has done? According to the Yale Budget Lab,
21:46calculation of what is the effective tariff rate on Chinese goods now. In other words,
21:53the rate on the goods are actually exported by China to the United States by their importance,
22:00how much they export, the tariff rate is roughly 20%. And the tariff rate on the rest of the world,
22:11except for Mexico and Canada, because you must understand Mexico and Canada have a special treaty
22:16with the U.S. It used to be called NAFTA. They qualify them for very low rates. If you take up Mexico
22:23and Canada, the rest of the world is 17.2%. So the Chinese rate has come down to 20%
22:33as compared to 17.2% for the rest of the world. Basically, the Chinese are now not being particularly
22:43punished compared to the rest of the world. Which is funny if you were to look at Trump's rhetoric
22:50over the longest period, right? Over this past year. So the first impression is that the U.S.
22:57limit to ban to China. The second is exactly what you said. China showed the U.S. up for not taking Asia
23:15seriously, not taking APEC seriously. You know, Donald Trump spent one and a half days in Korea
23:24and he left before the leaders summit. At the leaders summit, he was absent. He just walked away.
23:34And so who was the star of the show? Xi Jinping was the star of the show. And so he talks about
23:42multilateral cooperation, you know, work together for climate change and to protect free trade,
23:51uphold the principles of the United Nations, making the U.S. looks like a very arrogant
24:02but a defeated arrogant, arrogant country. At least make you eat the humble pie by China.
24:10Well, I mean, honestly, this has just been, it's not even the first year yet, Prof. And there's so many
24:15things for us to sink our teeth into. Final question before we wrap this up. If you were to
24:20grade or give a scorecard of Trump's East Asia tour, not in terms of optics, but in terms of
24:28real strategic outcomes for the region, how would you rate his recent tour?
24:35Well, talking about rating, let me tell, let me report to you that when Trump was asked, how would he
24:46rate U.S.-China talks that he had with Xi Jinping from a scale of one to 10? And he said 12. So somehow
24:5712 is within one to 10. But in this case, I would say that the U.S. got around 3 out of 10,
25:10largely because it did bring about a more friendly attitude to the U.S. in Malaysia, for example,
25:20because he has stabilized the tariff rate that he was threatening us with. And while we have all of
25:32that bullying language within the trade treaty, we see this as short run accommodation to achieve stability
25:42while the global situation continues to evolve. And he certainly was very well behaved in Malaysia.
25:52The first thing he did was to dance along with the welcome troops.
25:56and then invite PM Anwar to the beast, you know, all that. I mean, grand symbolic gesture.
26:04Thank you. Thank you so much, Prof, for sharing your insights. We will, of course,
26:08be keeping a close eye on everything U.S.-China here on Wu says. That's all from us.
26:14I'm Hafiz Manzouki. Thanks for watching.
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