- 11 months ago
US President Donald Trump is set to attend the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur this October. Is this a brilliant move to safeguard Malaysia’s economy and ASEAN’s relevance on the global stage, or a compromise of principle? In this episode of Woo Says, Professor Emeritus Datuk Woo Wing Thye and Faye Kwan delve into what to expect at the upcoming summit, from high-stakes peace deals to the diplomacy shaping the region's future.
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00:00Hello and welcome to WooSiz, where we get real about the US, China, everything and everywhere
00:16in between. I'm your host Fei Kuan and all eyes will be on Malaysia later this month as it hosts
00:22what many describe as the peak of its ASEAN chairmanship, the 47th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur.
00:28The spotlight, of course, will be on the possible arrival of US President Donald Trump, marking his first visit to the region since returning to office
00:36and fresh off his role in negotiating a ceasefire and hostage exchange in Gaza.
00:42Joining me to unpack and discuss what we can expect out of this, as always, is Professor Emeritus Datuk Wu Wingtai.
00:49Hi, Prof Wu. Hello. Pleasure to have you on again.
00:52Now, Prof, we've seen protests break out in Malaysia against Trump's visit.
00:58There's still the debate about having this red carpet rolled out for him.
01:03And the last time on WooSiz, we also discussed a little bit about or talked about Malaysia walking this tight road
01:10between expressing moral disapproval for Trump's attendance, but also being pragmatic and protecting economic priorities.
01:18So how do you see that balancing act playing out now with Trump's presence in two weeks' time?
01:25Has anything changed for you?
01:27Well, his coming this time should meet with slightly less opposition
01:34because he has produced a truce in Gaza, which I think we all must applaud him for succeeding in this task.
01:46The killing has stopped, at least for the moment.
01:49And in a way, we also recognise that it's the significance that Asia now stands in the eyes of the American in its Cold War with China.
02:07Right. And talking a little bit about you, you mentioned that he has successfully stopped the killing for now, at least in Gaza.
02:16He's also making his attendance to ASEAN conditional on progress in a Thailand and Cambodia peace deal.
02:26There have been reports that he would like to be present and presiding over the signing of a peace deal between Thailand and Cambodia in its border conflict.
02:36And it's also been reported that one of his other conditions is to include Chinese officials from this ceremony.
02:41You mean to exclude Chinese officials from the ceremony?
02:44Yes. So I'm curious about your thoughts on this. How do you read this move?
02:52Well, I must tell you that the Thai-Cambodian peace deal has more, most of the credit goes to our Prime Minister, Anwar Ibrahim, than to Donald Trump.
03:06But as you can see, if this is a condition for Trump to come, and his coming is of possibly high benefit to ASEAN,
03:21Malaysia is surrendering up that credit to Donald Trump.
03:27But to the extent that it makes Malaysia work harder to seal the peace deal between Cambodia and Thailand, you could say that's another kudos for Donald Trump.
03:43What you told me, what you told me, really amazes me at the length that Donald Trump is willing to go in order to make a run for the Nobel Prize.
03:55Well, if someone is running for the Nobel Prize and actually being able to bring stock to the conflict, one is certainly eligible for it.
04:09But in order to get it, you have to be seen as having achieved a durable peace, not just merely a ceasefire.
04:19What has happened in Gaza, what has happened in Gaza is still too early to tell whether the peace would end up.
04:29Because the Israeli cabinet, for example, certainly sounds like it is not very happy with the deal.
04:41And so now that they have their hostages back, less positive things could happen.
04:51Like things may be peaceful in the Gaza Strip, but today I read about additional Israeli settlements in the West Bank.
05:04So it's almost like one hand gives and the other hand takes.
05:11Now, that would certainly not be good for a durable peace.
05:15This continued grabbing, this continuing forms of colonialism by the Israelis in the West Bank.
05:24Right. And you're right to say that we cannot rest on our laurels for now.
05:29We have to see what plays out in the next year at least, what's to come even in the next days of this ceasefire in Gaza.
05:36But going back to Thailand and Cambodia, this condition that Trump has laid out, how do you see it realistically playing out?
05:44Will he get what he wants again and with China not in the picture?
05:47Well, I think that both Thailand and Cambodia are glad to have peace between them.
05:57Largely, they realize that this conflict between them forces China to choose sides between the two.
06:11Because we know that the Cambodians have been strong supporters of China in ASEAN decision-making.
06:24Like for example, there was a year in which no communique was issued after an ASEAN meeting
06:32because some ASEAN members wanted to mention the South China Sea and Cambodia objected to the inclusion of that item.
06:43And the result was no communique was issued.
06:48And Thailand certainly looks to China as a source of economic growth.
06:56As with all other ASEAN countries.
06:59So if China would have to choose between two combatants, one of them would certainly face a drop in economic income from China.
07:18So I therefore think that both countries are willing to stop the war anyway.
07:29And because after all, the war is really about something that is quite incredible,
07:36which has to do with the operation of the scam activities that are on the Cambodian side,
07:52and which the Thais had shut down these operations by stopping the flow of electricity.
07:59So given that the origin of the war, it is not something that is, should we say, as glorious as defending your soil.
08:12You know, we have a border dispute, and so that's what we are fighting over.
08:16My land versus your claim of my land.
08:20Whereas this is, you shouldn't disrupt my business activities.
08:25You shouldn't disrupt my illegal business activities.
08:29That is a cause not worth fighting over.
08:32So I think both sides are only too glad to put it behind them.
08:38The likelihood of us seeing the signing of a Kuala Lumpur Accord, a Kuala Lumpur Declaration,
08:43is very much something that we can look forward to then based on your thoughts.
08:48And then that comes with Trump being able to take credit for perhaps yet another peace deal.
08:55He's also centred really his policy towards Asia, at least around reciprocal tariffs and deals.
09:04Do you see, I'm curious, do you see in terms of Biden's attendance in this ASEAN summit,
09:10are you able to also lay out any sort of key differences or similarities in his approaches with the bloc
09:16as compared to his predecessor, Biden?
09:19Well, Biden, in his term, did not attend a single ASEAN meeting.
09:29Neither did Donald Trump in Donald Trump's first term.
09:33The reason why Donald Trump is here, I think, speaks for the one part,
09:45the growing importance of one similarity between Biden and Trump.
09:53Biden and Trump, we always think of them as representing different schools of thought.
10:03in American policymaking.
10:05That is certainly true in the sphere of social policy.
10:13Like, for example, the Biden administration supports the diversity, equality, inclusiveness policies, DEI.
10:24They support the equality of women's rights.
10:31They support abortion.
10:34Whereas Donald Trump has certainly taken the opposite stand on these social issues.
10:43And economic issues, they also differ.
10:46However, the Biden administration believes in strengthening social safety nets
10:54because his predecessor, Obama, had finally brought affordable healthcare to the poorer people.
11:05Whereas Donald Trump thinks that the welfare system just foster laziness
11:10and make for a weaker economy.
11:15And he believes to a greater extent,
11:19maybe not believe as much as catering to the needs of the richest classes in America.
11:29Like cutting welfare in order to have tax cuts for the rich.
11:34So on economic and social issues, we can see a different station.
11:40Now, do we see a difference in that Trump is coming and Biden did not come?
11:47I think that they have the same foreign policy.
11:52The same foreign policy that they have is summed up by one of his chief aides on foreign policy.
12:13He wrote, Kurt Campbell, pushes for the maintenance of American primacy in global affairs.
12:22So the word is American primacy for Biden.
12:26And for Trump, it is America first.
12:30So there's no difference between American primacy and America first.
12:36So both of them also recognize that the chief rival of today is no longer Russia, but China.
12:46On that, they are in agreement.
12:51Trump started the trade war in 2018.
12:55And after Biden came in, he continued.
12:59In fact, it was he who tightened the export restrictions on high-tech chips to China.
13:09And when Trump came in, this time, he certainly showed the use of tariffs became much more pervasive.
13:24It was just not on China, but on everybody.
13:27It's all we've been hearing for the last few months.
13:29Exactly.
13:29But then, China, as you know, had the highest tariff until the stock market crashed.
13:36And that was when he called a stop and said, and present negotiations right now between U.S. and China are not done.
13:45So U.S. and China both realize that they are engaged in a cold war.
13:54And when both are engaged in a cold war, they recognize at the same time that this cold war must not turn into a hot war between both of them directly.
14:08You can fight through proxies, but we cannot engage each other directly because both are nuclear power.
14:16So that is a case of mutual suicide.
14:19So they see their protection of ensuring no wars between them is that they each would like to have a sphere of influence.
14:33So that if there are clashes, it is in the edges of the spheres, that's where the proxy war can occur.
14:41Just like the U.S. supply weapons to Ukraine, basically, they are fighting the Russians on behalf of the Americans.
14:52Now, ASEAN has been the recipient of larges from China, the Belt Road Initiative.
15:07It is very nice when people come and help us in development.
15:12But along with this economic ledges, we see a greater confrontation on the military side.
15:22The nine-dash line in the South China Sea, where China has drawn its borders right up to the doorstep of Borneo, of Philippines, of Vietnam.
15:38So that is largely China's assertion of, this is my zone of influence, and keep out, and the Americans are contesting that.
15:53This contest between them has gotten hotter, and ASEAN has really not dipped its hand about which side we are on.
16:02So, Donald Trump has come calling to show that he is a good friend of ASEAN.
16:14We must understand that ASEAN itself has changed over time.
16:20When ASEAN was founded, the five original states, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore,
16:31it was founded during the Vietnam War period that was to stop the possible communist insurgencies that could be inspired into China.
16:47So, we were formed as an anti-communist movement, but that has changed over time.
16:56We have become now more of an economic bloc than a foreign policy bloc,
17:02largely because we now have Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam.
17:08And all these three have extremely close ties with China.
17:11So, ASEAN is not automatically an ideological ally of the US.
17:22The US sees its confrontation with China.
17:27The way it explains it is, we expected China, after WTO, as it gets richer,
17:35to morphed into a democracy like South Korea and Japan.
17:42But China has maintained its communist ideology,
17:46and so that's why we now have this confrontation,
17:50protecting the world's democracy.
17:54That actually rings very false.
17:57It is more recognition that China, unlike Korea and Japan,
18:06is militarily big enough to be able to challenge the United States.
18:12And so, the United States is now trying to contain China,
18:16especially after China has not explicitly embraced Kissinger's proposal of a G2,
18:26because what's a G2?
18:29The G2 was Kissinger's idea of why should there be a conflict between US and China?
18:38Why should we try to take anything from each other?
18:41The rest of the world is bigger.
18:44We should combine together and bully the rest of the world together.
18:48There's a lot more to take out there than from each other.
18:52But China does not see the G2 necessarily as a desired form of partnership,
19:02possibly because it may have things that it could not endure.
19:08In other words, the Americans form a partnership,
19:11but with them being the big brother.
19:13And that was certainly not what China's idea of a partnership is.
19:17So, given the fact that China has now become much stronger
19:25and now allied more closely with the Soviet Union
19:30than any time since Nixon went to China in 1972,
19:39So, Trump is coming here to hope to solidify a relationship
19:46or at least prevent Assad from tilting towards China.
19:52Because after all, Indonesia is now a member of BRICS
19:57and Malaysia and Thailand have applied for membership.
20:01So, it sees this as an undesirable development.
20:08As you said, they are coming here to show that they're posing
20:12that they are a friend to ASEAN.
20:14But really, what do you think ASEAN can realistically expect
20:17to gain from Trump's first visit here?
20:21Do you foresee any sort of concrete deliverables?
20:24I know perhaps we can expect countries to perhaps speak a little bit more
20:28or aim to hold discussions regarding tariffs.
20:31Or do you think this summit is just more about optics and symbolism?
20:34Well, at minimum, it's a symbol of that ASEAN wants to be a friend to both parties.
20:48Malaysia welcomed Xi Jinping in April
20:51and now welcome Donald Trump in October.
20:56So, we are even-handed in our approach.
21:00So, I think the...
21:04And furthermore, the trade negotiations are not done.
21:10The announcement of this 19% tariff on our goods,
21:14the details are still being worked out.
21:17In fact, the negotiations don't seem to be going well.
21:22I don't know what Minister Saifu says.
21:25The reason I say that the negotiations may not be going well
21:28is because around two weeks ago,
21:31the American Trade Representative said that
21:35if we don't make faster progress,
21:37we have to put on higher tariffs.
21:40So, I think given the importance of ASEAN
21:45to American strategic consideration,
21:48we want the Americans not to go above the 19%
21:55that it has already imposed on us.
21:58So, we should certainly be open to an accusation
22:04and be polite in our engagements.
22:09When you say being polite,
22:11how can you elaborate a little bit more?
22:13How should Malaysia approach that,
22:16or ASEAN as a bloc,
22:17to engage with a Trump and his White House
22:21that is openly more sceptical to multilateralism?
22:24Well, one thing to show polite means that
22:29when he wants to visit,
22:32we welcome him.
22:34Not that we think of him as a great person,
22:38but because he represents an important country for Malaysia.
22:43And more importantly,
22:46this is an ASEAN meeting.
22:48We, Malaysia, may have very strong distaste for Mr. Trump,
22:56but I think that some of the other ASEAN countries
23:00may not want to show the same degree of dislike.
23:11So, we are doing this for ASEAN as well.
23:16And being the chair of ASEAN,
23:19we have to take care of the broader welfare of the community.
23:25Than just to show that because I'm chair,
23:29we'll show you the Malaysia way.
23:31That would not be within our national culture either.
23:35Right.
23:35That's all about Malaysian hospitality, isn't it?
23:38Thank you so much, Prof Wu, for sharing your insights.
23:42That's all for this episode of WUSIS.
23:45Don't go anywhere and join us next week
23:48as we delve into another episode of WUSIS
23:50that will also be looking at the upcoming ASEAN Summit
23:53happening in late October.
23:55I'm Fei Kwan.
23:56Thank you for watching and see you next time.
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