00:00One of those fillies begins with lush lips.
00:03She's been really honest as of late.
00:04She's a multiple graded stakes placed horse.
00:07She is a stakes winner.
00:08Earlier in her career, Scott, she was all speed.
00:11She was a horse who really wanted to be on the lead.
00:13Then kind of on accident, she had a race where she broke slowly and came from off the pace.
00:18And since then, they've kind of turned her into a horse that can stalk and pounce and make one late run.
00:23Here she is with a very good second in the Del Mar Oaks.
00:25And I think you like her a little bit in here.
00:27Yeah, and to piggyback on the point of this race being a big race, it's a grade one.
00:32But it is the three-year-old fillies.
00:34You know, it's a lot to ask to take on the European older horses and all the older turf horses in general.
00:39So oftentimes, this is the race for this division.
00:41They're not going to take on the Breeders' Cup World Championships.
00:45But Lush Lips is a filly I like.
00:47And you mentioned she was a speed horse.
00:48I think a lot of that had to do with her inability to relax.
00:52And even when she didn't break well on the edge, she struggled to relax that day.
00:55She was very rank and still finished second to Nitrogen, who was the best in the division and arguably might still be, even though she's moved to the dirt.
01:04I just think she's really proven that she's mentally better prepared for races like this.
01:09So the inside draw should be perfect for her to sit a mid-pack trip.
01:13Scott, I think there are two horses that are kind of the top tier.
01:15It wouldn't shock me if they got beat.
01:17But I would say that Laurelin and Fionn are the most proven.
01:20They have the best resume.
01:21I mean, Laurelin is literally undefeated.
01:23And no knocks, she can sit close.
01:26And Kendrick Karmouche has been aboard her for four or five wins.
01:29He just seems like he knows what to do with her.
01:32He puts her in the right spot every time.
01:34Yeah, I mean, and she delivers.
01:36Maybe it's not all about Kendrick, although he's had a tremendous year.
01:39Maybe this is about the filly because last time out, you know, first off, she's won over a yielding course, a good course.
01:45She's won at multiple different distances.
01:47And then last time, when she kind of got a class test for the first time, I think many would argue, she was three wide into the lane that day, as you can see, and still just proved much, much the best.
01:58So she's going to take some beating, but this is definitely the toughest field she's ever encountered.
02:02Absolutely.
02:03I agree.
02:03I respect her, but this is a step up.
02:05We move to Simmering.
02:07She's 0 for the last seven.
02:08She set the pace over in Deauville on August the 16th before fading.
02:13She's not coming into this race in the best of form, Scott.
02:15No, she's not.
02:16They opted for this spot.
02:17I think they were entered in one of the, maybe it was the first lady, but it was including older.
02:21So now they get to face, take on just the three-year-old.
02:25So just her crop, but still a lot to ask here.
02:28I think we talked about, I talked about her on one of these last week with you, I believe.
02:32Her best efforts were as a two-year-old sprinting over an off-track, off-turf course.
02:37So lots of questions to be answered.
02:39Daisy Flyer is a grade three winner.
02:41She won the Lake George a couple starts back over at Saratoga.
02:45Then last time out, she was in the Dueling Ground Oak.
02:47She was behind Fionn and Candy Quest.
02:50She doesn't have a whole lot of early speed either, and that kind of hurts her.
02:53It puts her way out of it.
02:54What do you think about Daisy Flyer in here?
02:56Well, Rusty Arnold always capable of pulling upsets when he enters horses in these big spots.
03:01We saw this one big prove, you know, the best at seven to one in the Lake George.
03:06But I'm with you.
03:07I think the off-the-pace effort here is going to be too much to ask.
03:10Scott, I've played Opulent Restraint a few times because at three or four races in a row on paper, it looked like she's the lone speed.
03:17It looks like she has the advantage over some of these other fillies.
03:20And she just couldn't quite hold on against Laurel Lynn, against Fionn.
03:24She was even behind Lush Lips.
03:26So while, again, I look on paper and I think, wow, it does look like she can probably dictate things or have her way up front.
03:33She just hasn't been able to finish it off in big races against top, top competition.
03:38Do you think she can do so in a spot like this?
03:42Not at all.
03:42You know, four to one, if that's the price, I'll have to, you know, and if she's that price in the Exotics, I'll have to try to beat her underneath.
03:49You know, she's getting better in terms of numbers, but so are all these fillies.
03:52You know, that's just natural.
03:53So I'm a pass on Opulent Restraint for the same reasons.
03:56We move to Candy Quest.
03:58Scott, she's a grade three winner.
03:59She made a big move in the dueling ground Oaks on September the 10th.
04:03She actually took the lead.
04:05Her and Fionn were kind of closing together.
04:07She just moved a little earlier, and I think distance Fionn, like for the distance, Fionn kind of wore her down late as they got to longer distances.
04:15But I was really impressed with what we saw from Candy Quest.
04:18She was post 12.
04:19She made a huge move from the back all the way up to lead and then just got a little tired there.
04:24Yeah, she hasn't gotten out of the gate well in either of her last couple of starts, particularly in that race.
04:29But she got the setup, but, you know, you don't want to still spot the field that way and have to run the wide like she did.
04:35But that was a race that fell apart.
04:37It's just a lot to ask to outfinish Fionn.
04:40She just keeps coming.
04:41And while Candy Quest will be a much better price, I understand being attracted, it's a little tough to get to her on top.
04:46I was shocked that Destino Dioro was heavily favored in the Dueling Ground Oaks last time out.
04:53I've always liked this filly.
04:54She's got a ton of talent.
04:55If you look at her first two starts last year, she should have won the Jessamyn.
04:58She had legitimate trouble.
05:00Then she's off from October to June of this year.
05:04Shows back up.
05:05Nice win.
05:05Then in her second start of the year in the Pucker Up, she showed a lot more early positional speed, which I loved through thinking that maybe she's growing up and maturing a little bit.
05:15And then as soon as she opened up at a short price, you just knew she was a play against last time out because she shouldn't have been that short of a price.
05:22I didn't love her trip, Scott.
05:23She got stuck down on the inside.
05:25I don't know if she would have ever won or beat Fionn or Candy Quest, but she never really got much of a shot to run because she just kind of moved up into some traffic down on the inside.
05:36I think here she'll just be a better price.
05:38I think here she'll get a chance to run and hopefully get her a little more forward.
05:42What do you think about Destino Dioro in here, the number seven?
05:44Well, you know, the barn liked her last time because they talked that barn.
05:48So clearly the fact that she was, you know, a short price versus Fionn.
05:52You know, I agree with the trip.
05:53I agree with all your points.
05:54She's definitely one of the ones you'd want to look to if you're looking to get a little more value than the favorite.
05:58Yeah, there's like five or six in here that I could all make cases for just based on their prices, right?
06:02There's a few here that I want to make sure.
06:04Destino Dioro is around eight to one.
06:06Lush Lips, we want in that five, six to one-ish range.
06:09Let's move to Will then, Scott.
06:10It's another filly that I think has talent.
06:13She's a graded stakes winner.
06:14And I've played her a few times, but I just couldn't really make excuses for her last few, why she could turn the tables on some of the top fillies in here.
06:21Yeah, she was just taking on lesser competition out West.
06:24No disrespect to those races out in Del Mar and Santa Anita.
06:27I think she's kind of met her match at this level, but we'll see.
06:30Big price.
06:31Fionn rounds things out.
06:33She is so, so good right now.
06:35She's won three in a row.
06:37She's won six of her last seven races, Scott.
06:41And most recently, she wins the Dueling Ground Oaks.
06:44And honestly, she didn't look like she was going to win this race.
06:46She looked like she was headed.
06:48Candy Quest was by her.
06:49And I think this is honestly just her class.
06:51Down on the inside, she battles back.
06:54She's faced tough foes.
06:55And at a mile in, you know, more than a mile, once you get beyond that, she's probably better than a lot of these fillies.
07:01And this was at a mile in 516.
07:02So, man, I respect the heck out of her.
07:04She's been so, so good and in really nice form right now.
07:08But with her running style, she's the type of horse who it's fine to maybe take a shot against on the win end once or twice because she will have to come from way out of it.
07:15Yeah, she hasn't been favored in any of her last three wins, but she just keeps coming.
07:19And, you know, the kind of horse you want to bet because she seems to have a little bit of a nose for the wire, to say the least, at this point.
07:26But, you know, she might be the favorite even though she's second on the morning line in here.
07:31Flevian Pratt, you know, she's going to have to pass a lot of horses at a short price.
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