00:00Joining me now, Pradeep Gupta, Chairperson and MD of Access My India, Yashwan Deshmukh,
00:06Founder, Director of Sea Voter, Amitabh Tiwari of Political Strategist and Commentator.
00:12I appreciate all three of you joining us here on the show.
00:16I'm going to give you five X-Factors and we're going to go almost in T20 style through each of them.
00:22Kaun Jeetega Bihar.
00:24Let's turn to the first X-Factor.
00:26Will the NDA's cash benefit transfers for women and youth be a game changer?
00:33The new MY, Mahila and UR.
00:36Let's go to you Pradeep Gupta.
00:38Do you believe that cash transfers will be a game changer as they were in Maharashtra
00:42and indeed in Madhya Pradesh last year and the year before that?
00:47It will definitely impact the outcome of the election.
00:50When you say that, are you saying therefore that Mahila in particular and UR are influenced
01:00by the fact that the government, the NDA is giving them cash benefits?
01:03Have we reached a stage where this becomes the key game changer?
01:07Is this now a new template, Pradeep?
01:11See, of course, template is being played in the past two years, particularly we have seen
01:17and witnessed that.
01:18But in case of Bihar, one very important and interesting point when it comes to the female
01:23voters, particularly, you know why, the five to seven percentage points, percentage points,
01:31I am emphasizing on this, women votes more than male because the simple reason is their
01:38male member is outside the state for their livelihood.
01:42And then in this case, actually, it is playing out 45 versus 55, you know, 45 versus 55.
01:49So women voter is far more important in case of Bihar and, you know, sending 10,000 rupees
01:58at this eve of the election will definitely play some role.
02:03It may play some role, it may play a major role.
02:09What do you think, Yashwan Deshmukh, is this the X factor, the fact that Mahilas, more than
02:14one crore women are getting 10,000 rupees one-time payment by the NDA government?
02:20Will this become, like in Maharashtra, a game changer?
02:24This will be the factor, Razdeep, in this Bihar election and not because of Maharashtra or
02:31Mandir Pradesh or Jharkhand or any other example of the Bihar voter that we have seen in the
02:35recent past.
02:36There is a one big, huge difference between Eknath Shindesh, Shivras Singh Chauhan or Hemant
02:42Sorin or any other chief minister trying to do a one-time payment, one-time thing kind
02:47of thing with, for a female voter and trying to get away with their votes because Niteesh
02:52Kumar's personal history of running schemes for female voters is way too different from
03:10all under the chief minister, Razdeep.
03:1225 years back, he started the cycle, free cycle, free Poshak scheme for the girl child
03:19of Bihar.
03:20Those kids, those girls who were 25 years given Poshak and Saikil are now mothers, homemakers,
03:27entrepreneurs in Bihar.
03:29The same girls have been given 10,000 bucks and again been given and many of them will be
03:34given 2 lakh rupees in the coming years, you know, for entrepreneurship and everything in
03:39between, this is way too different, his emotional connect with those female voters has been
03:45reignited.
03:46That's a very interesting point, Yashwant, you're making.
03:49The girls who got cycles 20 years ago are now adults and they will, they continue to benefit.
03:55They are now Jeevika Didis, they continue to benefit.
03:57But that brings me to my second X factor, Amitabh Tiwari, which is Niteesh Kumar himself.
04:03Will he prove an asset or a liability to NDA?
04:06In 2020, his vote shrunk, he only won 43 seats.
04:11Is Niteesh Kumar 20 years into power an asset or a liability?
04:15Does he bring a clear vote bank and thereby becomes an asset or anti-incumbency makes him
04:21a liability, Amitabh Tiwari?
04:24Rajdeep ji, the basic accounting equation says assets is equal to liabilities plus capital.
04:30So any asset is a liability as well, the degree or the extent matters.
04:34In terms of assets, he brings the 12% to 15% core vote block of Kormi Koyri OBCs and the
04:42Loyal Women Vote Bank.
04:43He is not seen as unpopular.
04:45He has a good image, a non-corruptible image and his last election could gain him some sympathy
04:51votes.
04:51However, the lack of industrialization in the state and lack of creation of jobs is the biggest
04:59weakness of his 20-year government.
05:02And in the last two tenors, when he has shifted from NDA to Mahagadbandan and then back to NDA,
05:09people do see him as being busy in saving his chair rather than doing significant development
05:16work.
05:17So that's his weakness in that sense.
05:19But if I may then add, and this is the third X-Factor Amitabh, which is linked to that,
05:29who wins the crucial EBC vote?
05:31Extremely backward caste.
05:3326% Hindu EBCs, 10% Muslim EBCs.
05:37Now they seem to have over the last few elections generally gone with the NDA, particularly when
05:43Nitish is with the NDA.
05:44So do they go this time to NDA or Mahagadbandan because Rahul Gandhi and Tejasvi Yadav are also
05:49targeting them.
05:50Could this be the key vote bank, quite apart from the Mahila factor, the EBC factor?
05:56Yeah, so if you see the EBC vote, 26%, 45% went to NDA and 35% to Mahagadbandan in the
06:042020 election.
06:05Now this group has 113 sub-castes.
06:09There is little bargaining power of this group because there is not a single leader caste-wise
06:16of this group.
06:17And they see Nitish Kumar as the leader because he brought in the reservation in the panchayats
06:23and the local bodies for EBCs.
06:26There is also a trust deficit of EBCs with the Mahagadbandan because the OBC and EBC joined
06:32together to dislodge the upper caste-led government of the Congress, but later the Yadav community
06:40pocketed most of the powerful positions which led to the rebellion of the EBCs in 2005 voting
06:47for the Mahagadbandan.
06:49Also, a lot of EBCs are very small businessmen or self-employed people, the Vishwakarma Samaj,
06:56and for them law and order is a big, big issue.
06:59So the reach out to the EBCs by the Congress, I think, is very late in that sense.
07:05However, they need representation.
07:08Both NDA and Mahagadbandan give lesser number of tickets to EBCs than their population.
07:15So if the Mahagadbandan gives a lot of tickets, they could be in a position to woo some of
07:21the sections of the EBCs, largely the educated and the youth EBCs.
07:28And there is also 52 seats where the...
07:30It brings me to my fourth X-factor, which brings me to my fourth X-factor, Pradeep Gupta.
07:36Can the Mahagadbandan go beyond its Yadav Muslim core vote?
07:40All the polls we are seeing, Pradeep Gupta, show Tejasvi Yadav is the preferred choice for
07:45Chief Minister.
07:46But we have seen in recent elections that it is a struggle for them to go beyond their
07:51core vote.
07:51How do they increase that?
07:53Particularly because their allies, especially the Congress, is seen by many as a Kamzor Kadi
07:58or a weakling.
07:59Unless the Congress pulls its weight, do you see Tejasvi Yadav being able to grow beyond
08:04a Yadav Muslim combined?
08:06Can he do what we saw Akhilesh Yadav do in UP last year by creating his broader alliance?
08:13Is that possible?
08:15So, Rajdeep, yes, what you are saying is absolutely right because unless, until and
08:22unless Mahagadbandan as a whole, as a bloc, go until unless they get votes of beyond Muslim
08:33and Yadav, they are unlikely to win, which is the case in past three, four elections.
08:37And that is the precisely reason why in 2015 we have seen that the Gadbandan, that time
08:44Nithish Kumar was this side and they won the landslide victory in 2015, both Nithish, Lalu,
08:52Gadbandan.
08:53So, what is the next bloc?
08:56The next bloc is about 17 to 19% of Dalits, which is very important and significant in
09:02that sense.
09:03Whichever way the Dalit will vote in the majority number is likely to win.
09:09It is very simple.
09:10But within Dalit also, there are three categories.
09:13One is the Paswans, which is about 5%.
09:16The second thing is the Jhata votes.
09:18We call them Jhata votes, the Mochi votes, which is about another 5 to 6%.
09:24And rest is the other Dalits, other than these two blocs.
09:28So, this is very important this time, in particular, until unless Mahagadbandan is able to get the
09:37lion's share of this 17% of the vote, it is unlikely they are going to win.
09:45Interesting.
09:47You believe therefore the Dalit vote is critical, who wins that Dalit vote?
09:51Chirag Paswan, Jiten Ram, Maji, all with the NDA this time, but the Mahagadbandan also trying
09:59to target that Dalit vote, which brings me to my 5th X Factor, and I am going to get all
10:03of you to comment on it, quick comment, Yashwan Deshmukh starting with you.
10:06Will Prashant Kishore emerge as a third force?
10:10Can he become the spoiler?
10:11Can he become a kingmaker?
10:14How do you see the Prashant Kishore factor play out in a state which has been a duopoly
10:20between Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad?
10:23Well, Rajdeep, he has already emerged as the third force in Bihar.
10:28I mean, as far as the traction and the narrative is concerned, you see the majority of the noise
10:35on the issues and everything has been made largely by Prashant Kishore only.
10:39So he has already emerged as the third factor.
10:41How much electorally speaking...
10:43Can he convert that into votes, Yashwan?
10:45Sorry.
10:46Can he convert visibility and noise into votes?
10:50Absolutely.
10:51That's the critical question.
10:52And that is where I have my doubts, you know, simply because Bihar is not Delhi.
10:57It is still driven by largely the caste arithmetics and social combinations in place.
11:02Can Prashant Kishore cut through that?
11:05Can he actually demolish that?
11:07Can he actually appeal to big number of youth voters who may be caste agnostic in their way?
11:13So that is something which is untested.
11:15If he manages to do even slightly over there, it would be historic.
11:20I cannot give any number, Rajdeep.
11:22Because first of all, in a first-past-the-post system, whenever a fresh party, new party comes
11:27in, to gauge their vote share and convert that vote into a seat is virtually impossible.
11:34Anybody tries that, good luck to them.
11:35We know it is not possible.
11:37Scientifically, it's not possible.
11:39Second thing, is he doing only one-time politics of 2024 or 2025 or is he focusing on 2030?
11:48That is the biggest game.
11:50My feeling is what I understand.
11:52He is gaming for, he is playing for 2030 as well.
11:56By that time, if he sustains, he will certainly become at some point of time, the third factor
12:01in Bihar.
12:03Pradeep Gupta, what's your sense?
12:07You're smiling.
12:08Prashant Kishore, could he be the X factor in this election?
12:12And what is that percentage of vote you think he needs to cross to actually become a player?
12:17Prashant Kishore, in a triangle contest, if at all, it is definitely he has to exceed the
12:2233 to 35% of the vote to get going, which is very unlikely in the first election itself.
12:32But I am coming to the very important point, as you asked later on, which is whose vote
12:37he's going to cut.
12:39So there are two consistencies, which is, you can say that he's doing good at this point
12:46of time.
12:47One is that youth.
12:48Now, if you see the youth as a consistency, then he's likely to cut the vote of Tejasvi
12:54Yadav.
12:55Because on the NDA, no youth is there.
12:58In fact, in case of Mahagadbandhan, at least you can say that Rahul Gandhi is there, Tejasvi
13:03Prasad Yadav is there, and all that, and he himself being a youth, the Prashant Kishore.
13:09So in that sense, he's likely to get some vote of youth, which is coming largely on the
13:15count of Tejasvi Yadav.
13:16The second thing is that he himself belonging to the upper caste, which is he himself is
13:22a Brahman.
13:23In this case, the upper caste vote generally gets skewed towards the NDA.
13:29In that case, he's likely to get some vote from the NDA, this thing.
13:34So whatever vote he gets, he's 100%.
13:36Okay.
13:37What that 100% will be?
13:38We don't know.
13:39But whatever that 100% of his vote is coming from the, largely from the youth and from
13:46the upper caste of the society.
13:48Unless Muslims get in the bulk.
13:52Okay.
13:53I have just 30 seconds.
13:54I'm going to ask each of you 10 seconds each to predict.
14:00Amitabh Tiwari, predict what's most likely to happen in Bihar.
14:04No, see, I mean, it's a close contest with a slight edge to NDA because of the cash schemes
14:12which they have announced and the social block which they have.
14:15And also Prashant Kishore is largely going to spoil the prospects of...
14:19Okay.
14:20Close contest with an edge to NDA is what you're saying.
14:24Yashwan Deshmukh, what's your prediction as at the start of the race?
14:27Well, if they manage to win again, it will be only and only because of the traction of
14:32among the female voters and connect of female voters of Neetish Kumar.
14:36If they are unable to win, largely it will be because of the upper caste consolidation
14:39and other youth consolidation for Prashant Kishore.
14:42I mean, if that backfires for the NDA, they might lose.
14:47Right.
14:48Okay.
14:49Let me give the final word to you, Pradeep Gupta.
14:51Now you have to predict.
14:52No smiling anymore.
14:53Give me your number.
14:54Or at least give me the direction.
14:56Direction.
14:57Direction.
14:58Rajdeep, Rajdeep, I does not have any kind of number or prediction whatsoever.
15:02But all I can tell you is this.
15:05In Bihar, particularly assembly election, we have seen in last three to five assembly
15:09elections, the others, apart from voters voting for these two alliances, in the excess
15:16of 20% for sure, sometime it is 45%, sometime it is 27%.
15:21So this 25% to 27% plus another 10% to 15%, there are about 35% to 40% floating voter this
15:31time in Bihar.
15:32Even they doesn't know whom to vote at this point of time.
15:35So I keep my...
15:36Okay, Pradeep Gupta, you are putting your money in your pocket, you are playing safe as we
15:46all are.
15:47As we can sense, Bihar can always throw up surprises.
15:49So pollsters are also playing safe.
15:51We will wait and see what happens in the battle of Bihar.
15:53But good to have all three of you on the show tonight.
15:56Thank you very much for joining me.
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