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In this episode of Political Stock Exchange, we track the pulse of voters in Bihar ahead of the assembly elections.
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00:00Hello and welcome viewers, you're watching the Political Stock Exchange, your one-stop destination for unmissable, unmatchable data analytics.
00:12We're going to get you a double dhamaka of sorts in this Political Stock Exchange.
00:16We're going to begin with seawater numbers that have come in and also get you the latest from VoteWide.
00:22And all of that coming up, basically gauging the mood of the voter when we are about one month away from Bihar elections.
00:30We'll also get you our monthly Bihar tracker, all of it coming together less than or just about one month away from elections.
00:42The dates to be announced anytime, but before we get to the numbers and our panelists, allow me to take you through the headlines.
00:52Big political blame game over Karoor Stampede.
00:56TVK Chief Vijay cries when debtors as Chief Minister targets me, not the people.
01:03TN Government hits back, says incident could have been avoided if more volunteers were deployed.
01:12Meanwhile, multiple arrests have taken place in Vijay Stampede.
01:15Dreads TVK netas and functionally arrested content creators held for insightful posts.
01:21EPS says arbitrary arrests to hide Stalin's failure.
01:29Heated arguments during ACC meet.
01:32BCCI makes it clear to return Asia Cup trophy, but PCB Chief Mohsen Nakhvi insists on discussions.
01:39BCCI to now file a formal complaint with ICC.
01:42India's biggest terror fight let down.
01:49Chidambaram reveals UPA terror in action.
01:51Ex-home minister admits UPA buckled under global pressure.
01:54Mantri Rajiju attacks Congress 2611.
01:58Kid gloves says contrast that to operations in mood by Modi.
02:02An exclusive spoof and molester, Baba probes Lizi Swami's debauchery out in the open.
02:14Baba took selfie with air hostess, stored those pictures, took screenshots of girls.
02:20No remorse continues with brazen lights and denied.
02:24The ugly face of racism now peaks in Canada.
02:30Deeply racist anti-Indian posts in Canada.
02:32Indian Nationals spot offensive image on camp.
02:36Woman abuses Indian Canadians.
02:38All right, there's the latest news break coming in.
02:54Even though the final arguments of the special intensive role revision will take place on the 6th of October,
03:01the latest final list has been released by the Election Commission of India.
03:05The latest Bihar final list seems to add 21.53 new voters.
03:11Number of deletions now have been reduced to 47 lakh.
03:15Total voter in final list, 7.42 crores.
03:18All of this amidst a massive showdown which keeps continuing.
03:23Entire voter data now has been released as mandated by the Supreme Court on the website of the Election Commission.
03:30Let's take you through those figures.
03:31The total deleted numbers have now been reduced to 47 lakh viewers.
03:35Earlier on, there were 65 lakh voters in the drafts that had come in which were deleted.
03:40Now, that has been reduced to 47 lakhs.
03:44It remains and this is now the final voter list.
03:48There will be no more changes.
03:50No more admission of any applications on including your name on the voter list.
03:56The EC has released the final count.
04:0047 lakh voters have been deleted.
04:03Earlier on, the count was 65.
04:05So, you can see a drop in that.
04:07And additional of, let's see the number of voters that have been added.
04:1221 lakhs.
04:130.53 new voters have been added to the list.
04:16Which takes the total count at this juncture to 7.42 crores.
04:22So, this is the final list.
04:23Paramount of politics you will see at the back of it.
04:27Trust India today to get you up to speed with that.
04:29All right viewers, let's get back to the political stock exchange.
04:38Like I said, it's a double dhamaka of sorts.
04:40We are going to begin with the seawater political stock exchange numbers
04:45that have been coming in a dipstick test on what is the mood of Bihar
04:49when we are just about a month away from elections.
04:54I want to quickly take you through our panelists who will be joining us
04:57through the course of the next 45 minutes while we detail the data.
05:01Our panelists, Samitab Tiwari, political strategist, commentator.
05:05Dr. Manisha Prahyam, political analyst.
05:07Satya Prakash Mishra, JDU.
05:09In the studio with me, Priyanka Bharti, national spokesperson, RJD.
05:12Dr. Rajay Alok, spokesperson BJP.
05:16Charan Singh, Sapra, national spokesperson, Congress.
05:19I think it's just Ajay Alok.
05:21We've given the doctor just like that, but we're going to take that away.
05:24But viewers, let's get down to our first set of data that is coming in.
05:28This is seawater data, viewers.
05:30The first question, the performance of the state government of Bihar.
05:34We have been holding, if not a bi-monthly, but a monthly tracker
05:38on where Bihar stands.
05:39And look at those figures there.
05:41We've just number crunched in terms of what the voters feel
05:46less than a month away from elections in Bihar.
05:49And this has been our tracker from February all the way down now to September.
05:54Look at those figures.
05:55Very much satisfied.
05:57Began in February at 31.6%.
05:59It peaked to 34.8% in June.
06:03Fell 0.2% in July.
06:05But now it's fallen to 34%.
06:08Satisfied to some extent from 30.6%.
06:12That number now down from February to September to 28.8%.
06:16Not satisfied at all.
06:20Remains quite the same.
06:21Which started off in February at 34.8%.
06:25It peaked in July to 35%.
06:28June 35.1%.
06:30And now settling at 34.7%.
06:34Cannot say.
06:35From 3% in February.
06:37Comes down to just 0.5%, 2.5% in September.
06:42Let's cut across to our second question that was posed to the voters on practically the eve of elections by SeaVoter.
06:50The performance of the Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar.
06:54Very much satisfied.
06:5531.3% was in February and that has risen viewers.
06:59So good news coming in for Nitish Kumar.
07:02How good the news is.
07:03The following numbers will tell us more.
07:05But September, 35.7% are very much satisfied by Nitish Kumar.
07:11Having said that, satisfied to some extent has fallen by 2%.
07:1527.1% was in February.
07:17It's come down to 25.4%.
07:19Not satisfied at all.
07:22From 39.3% has fallen to 37.8%.
07:26Net-net.
07:27There seems to be a little more acceptance.
07:29No, not dramatically.
07:31For Nitish Kumar.
07:32The numbers in September seem to be better than what they have been in the past.
07:38But July had seen a substantial rise to 34.2%.
07:43That has now taken a percentage increase at 35.7%.
07:48So, not so bad when Nitish Kumar is concerned.
07:51Let's get down to our third question that SeaVoter posed.
07:57And that was the preferred chief ministerial candidate.
08:01And this is interesting viewers.
08:04Tejas, we are the preferred chief ministerial candidate.
08:07Reigns on.
08:08But he's steadily, his graph had fallen, though has increased.
08:11February, 40.6%.
08:14Practically 4.10%.
08:1610 people in Bihar wanted him as the chief minister.
08:19That now at 35.5%.
08:21It had, well, doing better because it had fallen earlier.
08:26If you look at August to 31.3%.
08:29So, you see a jump there for Tejas, we preferred CM candidate.
08:33Nitish Kumar.
08:34That might not augur too well for Nitish Kumar viewers.
08:37Though you can see from August to September, there is a marginal increase from 14.9% to 16%.
08:43But that doesn't look good.
08:46Where you see a dramatic sharp jump from February and this many, this person, many people say,
08:54could very well be the kingmaker or at least a vote cutter.
08:59Till now, untested political force of Jansu Raj.
09:03Prashant Kishore, 14.9% was in February this year.
09:06Viewers, look at that dramatic sharp increase.
09:09His preferred chief ministerial candidate jumped all the way to 23.1%.
09:14You can see that trajectory there.
09:15Chirag Paswan now at 9.5%.
09:18And Samrat Chaudhary has taken a beating.
09:22Now standing at 6.8%.
09:25If you look at this, one sharp trajectory to follow viewers is Prashant Kishore.
09:33You can see a steady rise and a very sharp rise within a span of seven months from February to August.
09:42You can see him jump from 14.9% to 23.1%.
09:47Will people actually vote for him is the question.
09:49But he seemingly is a preferred choice of chief minister coming in right after.
09:55They just be at 35.5%.
09:57You have Prashant Kishore then.
09:59And then you have Nitish Kumar at 16%.
10:01All right, preferred PM candidate.
10:04So that was a question that was posed to the Bihari voters.
10:07And let's see what they said we was.
10:10We've only covered Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi.
10:15Rahul Gandhi would be happy with these numbers.
10:17Very, very happy with these numbers.
10:18The Prime Minister, 54.7% in February, which is nearly what?
10:23Five people out of 10 wanted the Prime Minister to continue as the Prime Minister.
10:29So that number has marginally fallen to 51.8%.
10:33But Rahul Gandhi's graph has increased.
10:3739.2% was in February.
10:40You saw it falling in June and July.
10:42July it was 34.8%.
10:44But a dramatic sharp increase.
10:46So clearly the vote Chori, the vote Adhikar rally paying off in terms of voter perception for Rahul Gandhi where Bihar at least is concerned.
10:55You can see that jump and a huge jump.
10:58It's a 6% jump.
11:00So these are the numbers.
11:01Let's take all these numbers right now to our panelists.
11:05Amitabh Tiwari, we're going to get down to your numbers later.
11:08But with what Sea Voter seems to suggest, what if we go one by one, performance of state government seems to be, you know, it doesn't look bad at least for the NDA.
11:21But when it comes down to preferred Chief Ministerial face, Nitish Kumar not looking good.
11:26You see that sharp increase, you know, for Prashant Kishore and then preferred Prime Ministerial candidate Rahul Gandhi would be stupendously happy with those numbers, especially after his vote Adhikar Yatra.
11:39Yeah, so essentially if we look at the leadership battle, we see that Nitish Kumarji's graph has fallen compared to 2020 and consistently also here since the beginning of the year.
11:52However, the decline in popularity of Nitish is not being pocketed by Tejasvi Adhav.
11:58So that's a demerit, you can say, for Mahagad Vandan also that is going largely to Prashant Kishore in that sense.
12:05On a combined basis, NDA leadership is almost equal to Tejasvi Adhav's ratings because NDA has three leaders in your tracker, whereas from Mahagad Vandan you have only one leader.
12:17On a satisfaction level, I would say satisfied or very much satisfied is almost equal to not satisfied at all.
12:26So which means that there is a close contact.
12:28The satisfied to some extent is a voter which could go either ways, either to the Mahagad Vandan or to the NDA or even to Jansuraj party.
12:37In terms of Prime Ministerial ratings, Prime Ministerial ratings received a favourable position during May, June, July in the aftermath of the Operation Sindhuur.
12:50And at that point of time, we see that Rahul's ratings had declined.
12:54But from July to September, there is a 5-6% increase in Rahul Gandhi's ratings that can be primarily attributed to the voter Adhikar Yatra.
13:04The numbers show that it's a very close contest and will go down to the virus.
13:09All right. You know, I just want to also tell our viewers, these numbers were recorded after the women-centric schemes have been rolled out in Bihar by the BJP.
13:18So interesting to look at it from that prism as well.
13:21Dr. Manisha Priyam, four sets of data that we have given out to our panellists and to our viewers.
13:28What, according to you, is most interesting?
13:34So let me tell you, Priti, data is taking a political life.
13:40Today's Maha Ashtami, the day that a clay statue takes on a feminine form.
13:45And I would like to say very much that ultimately all the Maharthis who are fighting are all men, but they have to rely on cash transfer to women.
13:55That's the power of women.
13:57The women, the Bihari women may not be out there in this leadership race, either for the chief ministership or prime ministership.
14:05But they matter as voters.
14:07That's one.
14:07The second most important part about the big macro picture is that something is changing in Bihar.
14:13And that is that there is a place, there is a contest space for the political leadership in the state, which is why you can see that no one can feel that they are settled.
14:26Tejasui, who may have had a 40 percent, seems to be declining somewhat.
14:31Prashant Kishore, who was not doing well, seems to be going up.
14:35A dilly-dally on what they have to say about Nitish means that people, and especially the poor people and the women, still not willing to.
14:43Everybody knows that Nitish Kumar is in the sunset of his political leadership, but yet they don't want to disrespect him.
14:51But definitely a space opening up at 23 percent, I would also say that all the satisfaction numbers that you state are just about 30 percent or so.
15:03It means that the space for the voters who want to get out of that core vote scenario and want to say, oh, I'm going to think I'm somewhat there or not here.
15:12Which means that in the coming days, in the coming month, a political contest may be on in the state.
15:19Political leadership is certainly a question.
15:22And remember, it's not just the women's vote that's important.
15:25Prashant Kishore's Dhamaake Daar press conference yesterday and day before have put question marks on many political contenders.
15:34And one has to see how much of that leads to electoral churning.
15:38Does the leadership question…
15:39Right. Dr. Priyam, let's take that question to Dr. Raji Alok first up.
15:42Dr. Alok, do we put the… do we call you a doctor or is it our mistake that we've added the idiom there?
15:53Sorry, I couldn't get you. Could you repeat again?
15:56Dr. Alok, I just want to know, the doctor… the idiom there, do we keep it or is it our mistake?
16:02Are you a doctor?
16:02Oh, I'm a professional doctor. I'm not a PhD doctor. I'm a professional MPS doctor.
16:09We are a professional doctor. We are keeping it right there.
16:11If you want to call me Ajay, you can call me a doctor.
16:13Of course, sir. No, no, no. We call you Dr. Alok. You've earned the degree. We are going to call you Dr. Alok.
16:18But Dr. Alok, very quickly, with what Dr. Manisha Priyam said.
16:21Interesting. Doesn't augur well for the BJP, especially look at the preferred chief ministerial candidate choices.
16:28You have, you know, two press conferences that have gone down in terms of corruption charges.
16:33Is corruption an issue? We are going to find out later.
16:36But look at Samrat Chaudhuri, who from 10.9% in July as the preferred candidate is now standing at just 6.8%.
16:47While you have a Tejasvi at 35.5% and a Prashant Kishore with a meteoric rise that you can see from February all the way to September, sir.
16:56These figures should worry you.
17:01It's absolutely not worrying for us.
17:04Because, you know, the basic difference in your figure is, all those persons you are mentioning,
17:08whether it's Tejasvi, whether it's Nitesh, Prashant Kishore, Chirag Paswan, they are themselves a chief ministerial candidate.
17:15But BJP does not have any chief ministerial candidate.
17:18So how you can assume that Samrat Chaudhuri is the chief ministerial candidate?
17:21So he doesn't fit in the column, actually.
17:23Now let's talk about corruption.
17:24Now who is talking about corruption?
17:26A person who is no political entity in the state, who has just entered for the last two years,
17:31doing padhyatra and doing corporate strategy and paying people for taking his logo all over to the auto rickshaws and to the bike movers by 2,500 and 3,000.
17:42All these things we have seen in 2014.
17:44This country has noticed this, that keep on carrying a bag and keep on putting delegation one by one.
17:48I am carrying this G. This carries proof against Sonia Gandhi, Sonia Gujjal Bhejo.
17:54This carries proof against Sharad Pawar.
17:57That's what is happening in Bihar.
17:58And let me tell you, Bihar is not Delhi or Bihar is not any other state.
18:02It's the most political awakened state where people understand everything.
18:07And people understand what we have.
18:10You know, we have lots of numbers coming in.
18:12Let's quickly get down to our other spokespersons.
18:15One quick comment I want to cut across to RJD spokesperson Priyanka Bharati.
18:18Priyanka Ji, if you look at these figures, preferred chief ministerial candidate,
18:24even though you have Tejasvi Ji who's standing at 35.5% Tejasvi Yadav,
18:31but the increase that you see or the decrease rather that you see of Nitish Kumar and Samrad Chaudhary
18:38has been made up not by Tejasvi Ji.
18:40It's actually been made up by Prashant Kishore Ji.
18:43Is that worrying for you as well?
18:45See, Preeti Ji, journalists do their work, politicians do their work.
18:50So do the sophologists or any data analysts.
18:52It does not concern us at all.
18:55The reason being that we are concerned why all the Biharis in terms of per capita income
19:02are earning the most lowest in the country.
19:04That's our concern.
19:06The violence taking place, the murders, two rape cases every day in Bihar, that's our concern.
19:11But when you see and go through all these data, what a fallacy I found is that whenever
19:18data analysts portray any data or do any survey, they say women cast more votes in Bihar and
19:25then they become a deciding factor.
19:27But what is being hidden is women cast more votes because they are larger in numbers comparatively
19:33because the men are migrating outside.
19:35Every vote made from Bihar is outside.
19:38That's why when you say that women vote more because men are not there, they are outside.
19:42Second point, when Amish I told a day before yesterday or three days ago, Mahila Mandir
19:48Modi is going to be our concern.
19:50I would like to ask BJP spokesperson, where was Mahila in Lok Sabha elections when you did
19:55not give a single women ticket for Lok Sabha?
19:58Did it not concern you?
19:59And when the votes, especially the voters, especially women, when they were cut from the
20:07voter list, like 60 to 70 percent were women from all these constituencies.
20:13Where were you that time?
20:15Were you not concerned?
20:15We need to know that.
20:16All right.
20:17Prankar Bharti, we still need to know the new list.
20:19The final list by the election commission under SIR has just been released a short while
20:23ago, 47 lakh is what the latest deletion is.
20:26We need to dive in deeper in those numbers to get a larger understanding on whether there
20:30are more women than men.
20:32I'll come back to you, ma'am.
20:34Sorry?
20:34Okay.
20:35What are you saying?
20:37Why?
20:38Because the number of deletions have increased.
20:41It's now 68.5 lakhs.
20:43What you are giving us is 47 lakhs because there have also been 22 lakhs inclusions, no?
20:49Inclusions, no, I'm just talking about what the deletion is.
20:52That's the figure that I'm talking about and the inclusion is 23 point some lakhs and
20:58I'll come back to that.
20:59I want to quickly cut across to our two other panelists.
21:03Charan Singh Sapra, you'll take heart.
21:05Preferred prime ministerial candidate Rahul Gandhi for the first time in the political
21:09stock exchange and I really have to point that out.
21:11For the first time in the political stock exchange, Rahul Gandhi has crossed the 40 percent
21:16Rubicon, so 40.9 percent, like 4 in 10 people want Rahul Gandhi to be the prime minister in
21:22the state of Bihar.
21:23So the vote Adhikar yatra seemingly as perception has built for Rahul Gandhi.
21:28Yes, of course, the figures now show that the yatra of Sri Rahul Gandhi has definitely paid
21:39off and people of Bihar, they have resonated with what Sri Rahul Gandhi was talking about
21:46vote Chori.
21:47And as far as the preferred CM candidate, I would like to point out that of all the candidates
21:52you have shown, Tejasvi is the topmost, it is 35.5.
21:57And like Mr. Tiwari said, if you combine all the three of NDA, still they are at 32.3 and
22:03Tejasvi is at 35.5.
22:05So Tejasvi is definitely having an edge and Rahul Gandhi being shown.
22:11Charan Singh Sapra, you are forgetting the rise of Prashant Kishore in all of this.
22:14What makes you think he is only taking away numbers from the NDA?
22:17No, no, no, I am not forgetting, I am not forgetting, no, no, no, no, no, I am not forgetting
22:21the rise of Prashant Kishore.
22:22I am saying clubbing the NDA, Chirag and Samrat Chaudhary and Nitish Kumar, still they
22:29are at 32.3.
22:30Dr. Alok had a point challenging, he said they are not declared CM candidates from the
22:35NDA.
22:35Okay, no, but, but, all right, okay, fair point.
22:38So, even Congress has not declared, so even Congress has not declared a candidate.
22:42Sir, you really want to say this, you really want to say this because Priyanka Bharti there
22:46has got this one smile on her face.
22:48No, no, no, I am just.
22:50I don't think you want to say this.
22:51I am, I am just, I am just, I am just replying to what Alok has said.
22:58Okay.
22:58It's your fault, Pragya.
22:59I don't think the RJD, RJD spokesperson is taking kindly to that.
23:03I have not said we will not announce.
23:04It's your, your fault.
23:06I have, I have, I have not said we will not announce.
23:08Your, your PDG, hold on to that thought.
23:10PPPP.
23:10PPPP.
23:11PPPP.
23:11Charan Singh, Zapraji, hold on to that thought and maybe both of you on the back end can.
23:15No, no, I have not said that we will not announce.
23:16Okay.
23:17PPPP.
23:17Will it be?
23:18PPPP.
23:18PPPP.
23:18PPPP.
23:19PPPP.
23:19PPPP.
23:19Ma'am, 10 seconds, one second, let me bring in Satya Prakash Mishra and you can come in.
23:23Satya Prakash Mishra ji, the tracker in terms of the government doesn't do badly where your
23:29government is concerned.
23:30You've actually seen a bit of a rise in terms of more satisfied.
23:34But having said that, preferred chief ministerial candidate will and should worry you Satya Prakash
23:41Mishra ji because your chief ministerial candidate right now is standing at an abysmal 16%.
23:46That is not even two people in Bihar want him to be the CM today.
23:50No, not worried at all. Suppose we presume the data is correct. There are people you have projected,
23:56Chirak Paswan and Samrat Chaudh, they are not candidate of the CM post. If we add that percentage
24:02or vote, whatever the data is there, to the chief ministerial candidate Nitish Kumar ji,
24:08that is go above the Tejasvi Yadav ji, first of all. Second, people changes mind every now
24:13and then in Bihar. Now the political situation will unfold much more greater what we are perceiving
24:19now. And we will go deep into the election and that point of time definitely the Bihar
24:24will choose the right candidate, right party and that is NDA. Second point is that what
24:29Priyanka Bharti told that we never provided any ticket to women candidate. The NDA provided
24:35three ticket in the Lok Sabha election. But what RJD provided? RJD provided Misha Bharti from
24:42the family, Rohini Acharya from the family. So we are not into the family politics.
24:46Let's do one thing. Okay, everyone hold on to their thought because you talk about family
24:51that takes us to the first question of a second set of data and Amitabh Tiwari ji is smiling
24:55because it's his data. So vote vibe data and some questions were put forth. Let's quickly jump
25:01into our second set, ladies and gentlemen. And the question that was asked, the question
25:08that was asked, and I will draw out from whether, where the family of Lalu Yadav comes into question,
25:15are there apprehensions at the back of that? The question that was posed to the voters of the
25:21eve of election, which was just about a month away in Bihar by vote vibe was opinion on ongoing
25:26dispute in Lalu's family. No electoral impact. 45.8% say we don't care what's going on between
25:34the brothers or the brother. We have, we don't care. We'll vote where we have to. Will negatively
25:39affect the MGB performance? 29.5% say that there could be a problem, which is nearly three
25:44in 10 voters. Can't say 24.8%. The second question that was posed and this is where it gets interesting,
25:52viewers. Biggest issue in Bihar elections, number one, unemployment and migration. That continues to
25:58be the biggest issue, where 38.4% people said that is the biggest issue. The MGB will take heart
26:05because their vote adhikariyatra and the call of vote chori has registered with 15.7% voters. That
26:12is the second biggest issue right now in Bihar. Till now, corruption wasn't quite an issue in our
26:18track because it's come up. 13% by the survey carried out by vote vibe. 13% of the people feel
26:26that corruption is a huge issue. 7.6% feel health. Liquor ban, whether there should be a liquor ban or
26:33not, about 4.7% feel that is the biggest issue where Bihar comes into question. I want to quickly
26:40bring in first Amitabh Tiwari. Amitabh Tiwari, these are your numbers. What surprised you there?
26:45And we'll go into our next two set of datas after that.
26:51You're on mute, sir. Mute, mute.
26:53Yeah, not much of a surprise. What we have seen is that over the past three trackers, unemployment
26:59plus vote chori, the combined number is at 54-55%. Earlier in the first tracker, it was almost 50%
27:06unemployment and 4% SIR because at that point SIR was the issue. In the second tracker, it became 34%
27:14unemployment and 21% vote chori. Now it seems that unemployment has again risen by 4-5 percentage
27:20points and vote chori is at 16%. So these combined continue to be the top two election issues.
27:26The top two? The Muslims and the…
27:28Corruption also tracking, Amitabh.
27:29Corruption also, yeah. Corruption also gaining because I think we've combined long order in this.
27:34That's number one. Number two today, Bihar is politically divided between two big groups and
27:41one small group. So any question you ask, people are likely to give the answers based on their political
27:48affiliations. So that's what we will see in these… Fair point.
27:51Fair point. All right. Okay, Amitabh, let's quickly get into the other question that vote
27:57why bus? And this is important for us because so much has been made about the woman vote and the cash
28:03incentives, direct cash transfers that are being given. So the question that was posed, if you receive
28:0910,000 under the government scheme, how would you vote? 75 lakh households have already been transferred,
28:16that 10,000 amount. So when posed with that question, will continue to vote for the MGB,
28:2234.9%. Will continue to vote for NDA, 34.8%. So no change there. They're pretty much even.
28:29Will vote for Jan Suraj, 11%. Will shift, this is important. Will shift vote from others to NDA,
28:385.8%. So nearly 6% will shift vote. Can't say, 13.4%. The other question that we asked,
28:46opinion on, it's important for us because corruption is tracking. Opinion on graft charges made by
28:51Prashant Kishore against NDA Netaz. Will it negatively affect NDA? 49.6% say yes. So that's a
29:00huge number, nearly 50%. 5 in 10 voters say yes, it will negatively affect the NDA. No electoral impact,
29:0636%. Can't say, 14.4%. Let's quickly get an opinion on this. Manisha Priyam, Dr. Priyam,
29:13interesting. Everybody is keenly watching the direct cash transfer of 10,000 rupees that has
29:20already gone to 75 lakh households. Will it impact voter behavior in about a month's time?
29:28Very interesting figures, Dr. Priyam, because about 5.8% say that they'll shift their vote. 11% also say
29:35that they're neither voting for NDA or MGB. They're actually voting for Jan Suraj. MGB,
29:41NDA voters is pretty much even keen.
29:47So I think the only question about the cash transfers is that the incumbent government,
29:53the NDA have made this transfer, whether they are gaining or not. And you can see that the jury
29:59is out. There are a couple of issues here. And that is when I've checked on the ground,
30:04that there's been a merger between the Punjab National Bank and the Grameen Bank. So on this
30:10hype that is happening on the top, so many lakh transfers made. And that's where I believe very
30:15much that the media needs to do some groundwork also. On the ground itself, women have not received
30:21these transfers. Because the merger of these two banks, the online links are not working very well.
30:27So that's number one. Second part is that if you see in the deletions, women suffered big time.
30:33Women were not on Palayam. They were very much in their homes or in their married homes. But their
30:38names were cut big time. So when it comes to that, I think the security that the Nitish regime gave them
30:45and the slight fear that the cutting of their names from the SIR gave them,
30:49how are they going to stack this up against the 10,000 cash transfer? That's something that they
30:55would like to think. Remember also that in Jharkhand, the incumbent government of Hemant Sorain
31:01was able to benefit from the Maya Samman Yojana. A similar scheme did not help the Chhattisgarh government,
31:09the Mahatari Yojana. So I would say it's very important to understand whether women are taking
31:16this with trust and whether the ground reach is universal or not. At the moment, the jury is really
31:22out. I don't accept the claims. Oh, so many lakhs have received. Look, let's just tell this through
31:28the media channel of India today. It's not reached evenly to poor women on the grassroot. Maybe it
31:35does in the next 15 days. Maybe it changes their festive season. Amitabh Tiwari wants to come in.
31:40Amitabh Tiwari, these are your numbers. I just want to get in as much opinion,
31:45we're going to go to the next set of data and get in all our political panelists. But Amitabh Tiwari,
31:49you wanted to come in. Would you have thought that 5.8% that will shift to NDA would have been a bigger
31:55figure? So I just want to add here this, that this survey was done from 18 to 25th,
32:01which means that it was done before the actual transfer was made number one.
32:04Okay. Okay.
32:05But we've seen that similar schemes, whether it be MP, Maharashtra or Jharkhand as Manisha
32:10has said, have worked in the past. Correct. And 10,000 rupees is a very big number in Bihar,
32:16because more than 64-65% of households do not earn 10,000 per month in Bihar. So we will have to
32:24wait and see how these… What the impact of this is. All right. You know, we've gone to the two other
32:29sets of data, which is interesting, in terms of the corruption charges made by Prashant Kishore,
32:34what will happen there, because it seems that five in 10 people say it will negatively impact
32:40the NDA. But let's get into our other set of data views very quickly, little time.
32:44The impact of Tejasvi Yadavs, Bihar, Adhikar, Yatra. Has it energized RJD workers? 43.8% believe yes.
32:52No electoral impact. 25.9% will make seat sharing negotiations harder. 12.1%, something for
32:59Charan Sapra and Priyanka to answer will influence decision on floating voters. 8.7%,
33:05can't say 9.4%. Let's quickly, with that, step into the next set of data. Impact of AI video of
33:13Prime Minister and his mother viewers. You do know that the NDA ran with the fact that the MGB had
33:19insulted the Prime Minister's mother. When that question was posed,
33:23no electoral impact. Nearly 50% feel that the video will have no electoral impact. Will
33:30emotionally charge NDA workers? 22.5%. Will influence decision of floating voters? 14.7%.
33:37Can't say 13%. The next set of data. What role would Prashant Kishore's party play? That's interesting,
33:44because he is the preferred chief ministerial choice coming in right at number two after Tejasvi. But
33:49he's largely being seen as a vote cutter in this election. 56.3% voters feel that the Jan Suraj will
33:58serve as a vote cutter. But question is, whose vote will they cut more? Kingmaker in a hung assembly,
34:0415.8%. Very poor performance, nearly 10%, 9.9%. PK will become CM. Only 8.4% have that faith that Jan
34:13Suraj can pull this off. Can't say 9.6%. Let's get into our final set of data and we'll be back with our
34:20political analysts on the other side. Have you decided who will you vote for? That's interesting.
34:26Yes. So nearly 56.3% know exactly who they are voting for. They have decided. Will decide after
34:32announcement of candidates. 26.7% watching who their MLA could be or who they would want to vote for.
34:39Will decide in last few days. That's the floating population. 7.2% will decide on the voting day
34:45itself. 5.5%. So interestingly, 13% will decide very late. Can't say 4.3%. Let's quickly cut
34:55across to our political analysts now. Dr. Rajay Alok, if you actually look at the data right now,
35:00I would reckon this, if you just go by the virtue of data, and once again, every bit of data that you
35:07see during elections before or during or even after during exit polls need to be taken, not just
35:13a pinch with a fistful of salt, but Ajay Alok, if we are deciphering just this piece of data, it does
35:20seem that it's a tough contest ahead. Well, we don't take any elections lightly. We all,
35:30every time we contest an election, we take it as a tough. See, the basic difference, I'll tell you,
35:36what is the difference between BJP and other parties? I was just going through a tweet made by
35:41Congress Toolkit, just demeaning us. They said that on Instagram, Congress is 65%, BJP 35%, Facebook,
35:50Congress is 60%, BJP 40%, YouTube, Congress 70%, BJP 30%, Twitter, 50-50. And that's why Congress is able to put more
36:01and especially after the ceasefire, ethanol controversy, blending, motuary, etc, etc,
36:05we were able to exert more. I just started wondering that if that is the case, well,
36:10let them be on the social media, because you know what, in effectivity, on ground, BJP is 99.9%
36:15and Congress is only 0.1% and that's what the election result matters. Now, here in this data,
36:21if you analyze Bihar election for the last eight elections, the average polling in Bihar is 57 to 58%.
36:26Those who are saying, yes, 56.3%, those people are for sure going to vote. Because the average polling
36:34trend in Bihar has never been more than 60%. It fluctuates between 56 to 60. So, this 56.3%,
36:39the AI video which the BJP would have thought could have triggered a possible emotional connect
36:48has not quite tracked.
36:52It has triggered a political emotional effect within the NDA workers and within the NDA workers,
37:03within the BJP supporters and those who always think, those who are fence sitters,
37:06are a BJP GT rahi hai, kahan jayenge.
37:08That this is not going to happen this time.
37:10You think it will be an emotive issue?
37:11They are going to come out in numbers and vote.
37:11Okay, Charan Singh Sapra.
37:12That is for sure. And we are going to ensure that. We are going to ensure that.
37:16All right. Okay. Charan Singh Sapra, to bring you in on this, at least by the look of these numbers,
37:20it seems to be a tough fight ahead and a close contest, importantly. But what was imperative
37:26and important is to listen to Amitabh Tiwari, who conducted this survey, and he says that all of this was done
37:32before that 10,000 rupees was actually deposited into accounts, which Dr. Manisha Priyamsik,
37:38it hasn't even reached multiple accounts. But the promise of 10,000 rupees can be very, very,
37:45it does induce you.
37:50See, Priti, one thing is clear from all the data and for what we are talking and what is the ground
37:55level situation. One thing is clear that the real issues in Bihar will be the woman empowerment,
38:00it is going to be corruption, it is going to be unemployment, it is going to be the rising
38:05inflation. And when we talk about woman empowerment, the woman in Bihar, they know that what the
38:12government has done for last 20 years, the woman empowerment is just a hollow promise over there.
38:18They have absolutely not done anything. And even if it is Jivika Didi, they have miserably failed in
38:24Jivika Didi or CM Kanya, Uthan Yojna or various other Yojnas. Like Madam Priyam now said, they might fail in
38:33this ongoing process also. Now, when we come on corruption, let me remind you it is not…
38:37This could actually seduce the floating population, the floating voters?
38:43No, no. See the women, see the women, no, no, no. The women of Bihar are quite smart. They know that
38:50this is just an electoral lollipop. They also understand about this. So, they are going to
38:56take their own decision. They are going to see what this NDA government has given for last 20 years.
39:01When we talk about corruption, people who are saying, the Prime Minister who was saying,
39:05na khaunga na khaane dunga, he is blatantly allowing everybody khaane bhi dey rehen aur
39:11khud bhi khaare. Those are the charges that Jan Suraj is making, but you are quoting them.
39:15But okay, I want to bring in Priyanka Bharti. Okay, allow me to bring it. But sir, I just want to
39:20also add that you had… No, no. I am not talking about Jan Suraj. I am adding to the Jan Suraj.
39:26Priti, give me 10 seconds. Adding to the Jan Suraj, let me remind of Sirjan Ghotala.
39:31Let me remind that in 17 days, 20 bridges had collapsed. Let me also remind that 15 more
39:37bridges had collapsed. Let me also remind you that in… around lakhs of rats, they had, you know,
39:44they drunk… Okay, Charan Singh, but let me also remind you that you had also said that the
39:49larki bhai in Yojana will be nothing more than a lollipop in Maharashtra. You come from Maharashtra.
39:53Let's see what happened there. But that's a different story. Priyanka Bharti, to bring you in on this
39:58impact of Tejasvi Yadav's Bihar, Adhikar, Yatra. Has energized RJD workers 43.8%, no electoral impact
40:0725.9%. Would you think that figure should have been better? But what's interesting, Priyanka Bharti,
40:14is it will make seat-sharing negotiations that much harder?
40:18Priyanka Bharti, in the beginning of the show, I told you that we are not concerned about any data,
40:24because we have trust in people. We have served people. And for 17 months, they have seen our
40:29tenure, that we are the only one who can procure jobs. And as your data only says that mostly people
40:35who are concerned about is job, unemployment. But what I found very interesting is the political
40:42analysts sitting here said that women are very much satisfied with NDA. If they were,
40:47how could they be? I mean, two rapes take place daily in Bihar. That's SCRB data. And not only this,
40:5666% of women are anemic. Not only this, 30% of women, National Family Health Services, 30% of women do
41:03not have doctors for their baby delivery. 43% of children are produced stunted. They are delivered
41:09stunted. They are malnutritioned. And now you say women will vote for Nitish Kumar, for NDA. And
41:15and mine, I do not know, Satyaprakash Mishra is not spokesperson of JDU. But still, I would say that
41:20I said that BJP did not give a single ticket to women, not to kushvahas, not to koiris. So this day
41:27is going to be a very much shift to the koiris as well as to the core voters who have been
41:33believed to be core voters. All right. Let me bring in Satyaprakash Mishra,
41:36one final comment. Satyaprakash Mishra, you have one minute to respond. Go ahead. Sorry,
41:39ma'am. It had to be a halt. I don't know. I must respond,
41:41why women will cast their vote in favor of Nitish Kumar? It was Nitish Kumar who first time in 2005
41:47provided cycle and school dresses to the school children who started going to school. And he
41:53provided 50,000 in cash to all the students who qualified for graduation and 12th level. It is
42:01first time Nitish Kumar provided 50 percent reservation in panchay to women. It is Nitish
42:07Kumar who provided 35 percent reservation in the government sector for women. Now 29 percent
42:13women are in police in Bihar. This is the first state which has so much police personnel of women.
42:18All right. I'm coming. I'm coming to. They have attacked on women. It is not the first time that
42:24Nitish Kumar empowered women in Bihar in through the GV Kadidi, which provided with 10,000 in cash and in
42:31future 2 lakh rupees. The model of Nitish Kumar is to provide every facility to the woman. The data
42:37sees producing completely fake one. All right. With that, I appreciate all five of you who are
42:42six of you who joined us this evening. Thank you for joining us. We're going to leave it at that.
42:47Trust us. We're going to come out with two more trackers, very close to the elections before we
42:52actually jump in. But very, very interesting. If you just look at the strength of shared data,
42:57it promises to be a close contest. But we're going to leave you with these images coming in. It's
43:01Ashramie today. And you have the Prime Minister going to Chitranjan Park, which is the heart
43:07of the Bengali population in the national capital and prime. These images coming in from Chitranjan
43:13Park, wishing all our viewers a very happy Ashramie.
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