NL Rookie of the Year Contest Heats Up: Horton vs. Contenders

SportsGrid

Watch NL Rookie of the Year Contest Heats Up: Horton vs. Contenders - SportsGrid on Dailymotion

Transcript

00:00But this year, it's wide open right now.

00:03Isaac Collins of the Milwaukee Brewers.

00:05Cade Horton, at some books, just became the odds-on favorite of the Chicago Cubs,

00:09a right-handed pitcher who has been amazing since the All-Star break.

00:12Drake Baldwin of the Atlanta Braves.

00:14There are more guys in the conversation for the National League Rookie of the Year.

00:18We got about 10 minutes here to hash this all out.

00:20Can you put together the case for the three, four guys you feel like are actually in this hunt?

00:25So let's go over the odds first, just to quantify what the books are telling us.

00:31So you're right.

00:32Cade Horton is now the new favorite on BetMGM at about plus 140,

00:36which means the implied odds of that.

00:38BetMGM is saying they're giving him about a 42% chance of winning.

00:42Isaac Collins at about plus 180, around 35%.

00:46Drake Baldwin at 2-1, about 33.3%.

00:49And if you're curious why those don't add up to 100%,

00:53well, the books have to make some money.

00:55It's called the hold.

00:56That's their profit margin.

00:57So they're not exactly going to equal 100%.

01:01But before I make the case, can I make a case against?

01:05Because here's my issue.

01:07Cade Horton, again, is now the new favorite.

01:09Him being the favorite for National League Rookie of the Year, respectfully, is a total sham.

01:15I say respectfully because I don't want this to come off as if I dislike Cade Horton.

01:22We've talked about him plenty of times on the show.

01:24I've praised him relentlessly.

01:26I think he's one of the better young pitchers in the league with a really bright future.

01:31Yeah.

01:31When you look at the rookie landscape in the National League, there's just no way he should

01:36be the favorite.

01:37What this is reminding me of is Cubs fans running to the sportsbooks to bet Cade Horton.

01:44For one, Horton has thrown 93 innings this year.

01:48He's likely going to make six more starts.

01:50So he should be around, based on that math, 125 to 130 innings.

01:57He'd be the first starter since Dave Rigetti in 1981 to win Rookie of the Year with less

02:03than 130 innings.

02:05But Rigetti's competition were two starters who threw fewer than 80 innings and Rich Gedman

02:11who put up a 751 OPS over 62 games.

02:16Gedman finished second.

02:17So that's the level of competition.

02:20Now, Skeens won it last year with 133 innings, but he struck out 170 batters with a 1-9-6

02:27ERA.

02:27Yeah.

02:28Just on different planets.

02:30Respectfully, there is a difference between a 1-9 and a 2-8.

02:34100%.

02:34And just continuing, Collins and Baldwin both play the majority of the season so far.

02:41Both are at least 20% better than the league average hitter by both OPS Plus and WRC Plus.

02:47Collins has a 2.8 war compared to Horton at 1.0.

02:52Yeah.

02:52That's looking at baseball reference.

02:54It's just not close.

02:55And then it goes even farther.

02:58Just among starters, National League starters were rookies.

03:02Chad Patrick for Milwaukee has more innings, more strikeouts, a higher war, and yeah, he's

03:10got a 3-6-0 ERA compared to Horton at 2-8-8.

03:14But Patrick has the better FIP, and the only reason I bring him up is his odds aren't even

03:20offered on BetMGM.

03:21Because he's been in AAA for the last month and a half.

03:24And still has more innings.

03:25And when we're talking about innings, remember I said he has about six more starts left?

03:30Won his last shutout outing against the Angels, which he was awesome.

03:34Six-shutty, pulled after 74 innings.

03:37Why?

03:38For 74 pitches, yeah.

03:3974 pitches, excuse me.

03:41He left his last start with a blister.

03:43So that is something to monitor.

03:45Yeah.

03:46And his career high in innings in the minors is 88.

03:49His final year at Oklahoma, he threw 54.

03:52And the Cubs, they need a three-starter in the playoffs.

03:55Now, you can say that's Tyone after Boyd and Shota Imanaga.

04:00But based on the talent level, you probably want it to be Horton.

04:04So coming off a blister, already at his career high in innings, and they need him for the

04:09playoffs.

04:10So I say to get to this threshold of 130, but he might not even get there.

04:15So for me, there's no way Cade Horton should be the favorite.

04:21Now, crazier has happened.

04:22And I do love Cade Horton.

04:24Cubs fans don't come for me.

04:26This has nothing to do with Cade Horton, the talent.

04:28I think he's going to be, again, one of the better young pitchers in baseball for a very

04:31long time.

04:32But for right now, this is a two-horse race.

04:35Yeah.

04:36Horton doesn't deserve to be in this category.

04:38Now, on talent, of course he does.

04:40Based on the body of work, no.

04:41Now, on talent, of course he does.

Category

Transcript

Be the first to comment

Recommended