00:00NL East this year, Tom, should be a good one.
00:02If we take a look at some of the odds to win the NL East, we'll start there first.
00:05The New York Mets are the favorites, Tom.
00:07Plus 140 price, followed closely by the Philadelphia Phillies at plus 185.
00:11And then the Atlanta Braves had a plus 220 price.
00:13If we're betting on who we think is going to win that division, Tom,
00:16who do you go with here?
00:17Because those three teams are pretty close together.
00:20I like the Braves, personally, this year.
00:22Like I said, I'm very high on them.
00:23Obviously, the injuries to the pitching staff need to get sorted out with Schauver,
00:27with Schauver, excuse me, and Schwellenbach.
00:29Getting those guys back would be huge.
00:31I think Matt Olsen, Austin Reilly, could be in for bounce-back years.
00:34I like the lineup top to bottom.
00:36Ultimately, I would bet on the Braves, but the answer is not the Mets.
00:40If someone out there, and Donnie, you are a Phillies fan,
00:42but if someone out there is adamant about the Phillies,
00:44and they like their price at plus 185, which is a very fair price,
00:47absolutely make that bet.
00:48I happen to like the Braves just a touch more.
00:50It's like a 1A, 1B, and this is specifically when it comes to a betting perspective.
00:54I think the Phillies are a better, more talented, well-rounded team.
00:57But the answer is not the Mets, not at that price, absolutely no.
01:01And also, the interesting part about it, too, is continuity does somewhat matter here.
01:05It's basically a new clubhouse, it feels like, for the New York Mets,
01:08but also, as Tom and I talked about multiple times,
01:11fielding their position and being comfortable.
01:12Hey, you can hit your way all the way through it,
01:14but if you can't field and you're giving up extra outs per inning to other teams,
01:18that's going to be a problem.
01:19I do think the Mets are overall the most talented team in the National League East,
01:23and the Phillies are bringing it back.
01:24And there are some question marks.
01:25If Andrew Painter, one of the best prospects in baseball, bounces back
01:28and is a really good pitcher for the Phillies, that's going to help.
01:31Jesus Lazard has been very good for them.
01:32We said they lost Ranger Suarez.
01:34But also, if you are getting Zach Wheeler back
01:36and he's any semblance of what Zach Wheeler is supposed to be,
01:38that could give the Phillies a bump.
01:40But I do agree with how they're being priced.
01:42Mets, Phillies, and the Braves,
01:43all three of those teams, legitimate chances to win this division,
01:45and then we'll see what we get out of the Marlins and the Nationals, Tom.
01:48So let's talk win totals here,
01:50because we'll start with the New York Mets.
01:51We'll miss it at 90-and-a-half.
01:54That's a lot of wins here.
01:55That means you're going to be a playoff baseball team.
01:56They have the talent to do that, Tom.
01:58But it doesn't sound like, Tom, that's where your investment might go,
02:01to maybe a Mets over 90-and-a-half.
02:03It would not.
02:04It would go on the under of anything.
02:05Like you said, the new fielding situation that they have,
02:10I think there's going to be some real growing pains.
02:11We alluded to this before.
02:13They're going to score runs if they scored five, six runs in 15 of their first 20 games.
02:18I'm not going to be surprised.
02:18But I do think there will be growing pains.
02:21I think betting a Mets number potentially in season for a win total in season
02:25after we get through a little bit could be good.
02:27If you give me an 86 on the Mets after a bit of a slow start,
02:29I would take that absolutely to the over.
02:31But a slow start and some growing pains, I think, is where the Mets would be.
02:35So under 90-and-a-half is my initial lean.
02:38Yeah, again, coming out, like the lineup here, we'll see how it works out.
02:41Bullpen still is going to be solid, even though they lost Diaz at this point.
02:43But then you take a look at the Phillies and the Braves,
02:45almost side-by-side as well,
02:46similar to what the pricing we were talking about to win this division.
02:49The Philadelphia Phillies popping up at 89-and-a-half,
02:51and then the Atlanta Braves, Tom, following with 88-and-a-half.
02:54If we look at those first three teams in order,
02:56you say they picked two out of three, I would bet the Braves to the over,
02:59I would bet the Phillies to the over, and maybe the Mets to the under.
03:02I'm not saying it would work out that way,
03:03but just from the price points that we're looking at,
03:05I do think the Phillies and the Braves legitimately are 90-win teams.
03:08But having said that again, if they're healthy, it looks much better.
03:11If they're not healthy, that's going to go up in smoke.
03:15Yeah, I would say the same thing.
03:16The Phillies and the Braves are absolutely the betting options ahead from the Mets.
03:20And, you know, partially I think that the Mets are just are booked at this price
03:24at plus 140, simply from a risk thing from the books,
03:27where they just have to, they can't have the Mets at 2-to-1
03:30because it's too much reliability.
03:31So they just got to move it down just a little bit.
03:34And by the way, looking at the Marlins in this lineup here, Tom,
03:3672-and-a-half wins, that does seem doable.
03:39Again, if Sandy Alcantara returns back to form,
03:41I don't need to be a Cy Young in the National League.
03:43Just return back to form.
03:45Decent players on that team and understand this as well.
03:47I say, well, wait a second, Donnie and Tom.
03:48You're telling me that you think the Braves are going to be good,
03:50the Mets are going to be good, and the Phillies are going to be good.
03:52That means that the Marlins, the majority of the games,
03:54are going to be playing those three teams,
03:55and certainly the Washington Nationals aren't very good.
03:57That's not the case anymore in Major League Baseball.
03:59Like, if you were telling me, like, back in the day,
04:01if it was American League and National League is separated,
04:03and you play each one of these teams, like, twice the amount that you do now,
04:06now you're just like, ooh, that could be tough for the Marlins.
04:08They'll be scrappy.
04:09They'll win their games.
04:10You're not asking for a lot, Tom.
04:1273 wins in Major League Baseball isn't a crazy good season.
04:16That's a bad season.
04:17I think the Marlins can actually do that.
04:19I would say the same.
04:20You know, we talked about it last year, the way that they finished,
04:23especially on the hot streak.
04:24The young pitchers, I think that is the key sticking point for the Marlins.
04:28The three young pitchers, Perez, Braxton, excuse me,
04:33we're going to get Yuri Perez from them, needs to step up and get that done.
04:37And then the other two, their names are escaping me,
04:39despite the fact we just went over them.
04:40Those are the players that need to step up to get this done.
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