00:00Hello, very good day to you. Is the hot weather we have at the moment going to last as we go through the end of summer?
00:05Well, no, not quite. That's because whilst we do have high pressure around us at the moment,
00:10bringing a lot of settled weather, lots of sunshine, it is going to drift away.
00:15Now, worth bearing in mind that as we go into the weekend, some low cloud will be coming around the high,
00:20so eastern parts could wake up to a bit of a cloudy start on Saturday.
00:23It could be quite cool as we go through the day here as a result whilst that cloud burns back.
00:27But then lots of sunshine by Sunday, and actually as that high pressure shifts away towards the north-northwest,
00:33that will then allow for some showery rain to come in, particularly across southwestern parts,
00:37as we go through the beginning part of next week.
00:40And some of that rain could be heavy, could even be a bit thundery.
00:43Then perhaps a drier spell as we go towards the middle of next week,
00:46but there is some more changeable weather waiting out for a time as we go through,
00:50particularly Thursday, maybe into Friday.
00:53Before then, well, question marks as to what we can expect for the bank holiday weekend.
00:58Why is this?
00:58Well, let's look out the other side of the Atlantic.
01:01Here we have Hurricane Erin.
01:02It's currently tracking quite close to some of the Caribbean islands,
01:06but likely to say just to the north,
01:08so isn't expected to make any major landfall when it reaches major hurricane status.
01:14And then it tracks further north, up the eastern side of the U.S.,
01:17and then wraps around towards the northeast, going up the eastern side of Canada.
01:21Then it is likely to push across the Atlantic.
01:25And when we see features like this, particularly at this time of year,
01:28doing something like that, pushing from west to east across the Atlantic,
01:32it really does cause us some headaches because it brings a big amount of uncertainty
01:36for what the weather in the U.K. is going to do.
01:39But let's look at next week.
01:41And this is the most likely setup for next Wednesday.
01:44I did show that there could be some showery rain around,
01:46but the most likely outcome being high pressure situated somewhere towards the northwest of the U.K.
01:51If this comes off, then yes, we could get a bit of cloud,
01:53a bit of rain around some northeastern, eastern parts,
01:56maybe even a bit of showery rain coming in from the south.
01:58But for many, it would be largely dry.
02:01Then some more changeable weather coming.
02:03So an unsettled spell perhaps as we go through Thursday
02:06before high pressure building again in time for the long bank holiday weekend.
02:11So both Friday, Saturday and also Sunday at the moment
02:14look most likely to be generally fine and settled.
02:17But then what happens with Erin?
02:19Well, it won't be a hurricane by the time it comes towards us,
02:22but there's the potential that it could come towards the U.K.
02:25in time for bank holiday Monday.
02:27Now, this only has around a 16% chance, so not particularly high confidence.
02:31Like I said, these kind of features really do reduce the confidence in the forecast
02:35when you're looking this kind of time ahead.
02:38I think there's a reasonable chance that actually the high pressure
02:40could linger through much of the long bank holiday weekend.
02:44And in fact, Erin could be helping drive a high pressure building.
02:48But we do need to factor in that there could be low pressure coming across
02:51and some more unsettled weather as we go through bank holiday Monday.
02:54And also more unsettled weather as we go through Tuesday and into Wednesday as well.
02:59So just bear that in mind.
03:01So what can we expect through the 7 to 14 day period?
03:04Well, I think some high pressure at first through the start of the long bank holiday weekend
03:08looks pretty likely and then things are going to change more changeable
03:13and we're going to see various areas of low pressure
03:15or at least one perhaps quite deep area of low pressure
03:18in association with what is currently Hurricane Erin.
03:21So something to keep on top of.
03:23Also worth noting, our temperatures are going to be dropping.
03:27For some, they could turn a little bit below average for a time
03:29as we go through next week.
03:30Bye-bye.
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