00:00Hi there and welcome along to the Met Office 14-day outlook in which we discuss the most
00:03likely weather patterns for the next couple of weeks. Of course, taking us up to the first day
00:07or two of September. So how's the rest of summer looking? Well, this summer we've certainly seen
00:12plenty of high pressure and once again for the next few days we will see that high pressure in
00:17charge. This time situated to the north of the UK. A lot of the high pressure through the summer
00:22has been further south or directly over the UK, allowing for temperatures to rise and for a number
00:27of heat waves to develop. But because this high is to the north, certainly for the first few days
00:32of this forecast, actually a relatively cool east to northeast breeze blows across the country. So
00:36yes, it's going to be dry and settled, but rather a lot of cloud and temperatures on the cool side.
00:43We'll certainly notice the cool nights towards the end of the week. That high pressure sticks around
00:48for the first part of what is for many a bank holiday weekend. And you can see that high pressure
00:53developing more widely for a time across the UK for Friday and into Saturday. So widespread sunny skies
00:59to start the weekend. But then a hurricane in the Atlantic could cause all sorts of disruption to
01:08the UK's weather patterns as we go into the bank holiday Monday and beyond. Now the reason for this is
01:15covered comprehensively in the Met Office deep dive, which you can find on the YouTube channel for
01:21the Met Office if you want further details. But just to summarise, this is Hurricane Erin at the moment,
01:26at the time recording a Category 3 hurricane. And by the weekend, it's pushing into the North Atlantic.
01:32Now, whilst there's some uncertainty about the track of hurricane, or by this stage, ex-hurricane Erin,
01:39no longer technically a hurricane, but a mid-latitude low, there's some uncertainty about it. And it may never
01:45actually approach the UK. It may just dip to the south towards the Azores, for example, and
01:50peter away. But what it will do is inject some extra moisture and humidity into the North Atlantic system
01:59and create an enhanced temperature contrast across the North Atlantic. And that fuels a strengthened jet
02:07stream. And it's that stronger jet stream that ends up sending an area of low pressure into the UK
02:12early next week. Not necessarily ex-hurricane Erin. In fact, this looks like a completely different
02:18area of low pressure. But it is formed as a consequence of hurricane, ex-hurricane Erin
02:23strengthening the jet stream. And so by Monday, it looks most likely that we're going to start to see
02:29unsettled weather arrive into the west and southwest of the UK. Some uncertainty about timings.
02:36So areas of the UK, particularly towards the north and the east, may well start Monday,
02:41dry and settled, just like Saturday and Sunday. But it is turning by this stage more unsettled from
02:48the southwest as areas of low pressure begin to pile in. And it's low pressure that seems to be the
02:54dominant theme after that for the final week of summer. This chart here shows the top three most
03:00likely weather patterns for Tuesday, the 26th of August. Most likely low pressure towards the west or
03:06southwest of the UK. The blue colours there showing where above average rainfall is likely.
03:10A similar picture for the second and third most likely weather patterns. Low pressure
03:14over or close to the west of the UK with above average rainfall. Similar scenes as we go into
03:20Wednesday. Again, low pressure most likely perhaps situated over the top of the UK or just to the west
03:26of the UK, depending on whether you're looking at the first, second or third most likely weather
03:31patterns. Blue colours across the UK indicating above average rainfall. So increasingly, we're likely
03:37through next week to see spells of rain arriving from the west and southwest, especially across the
03:43southern and southwestern part of the UK. And as we go to the start of September, some signs there
03:52that slow pressure will become a little less frequent. But either way, the weather most likely staying
03:57very changeable. So to summarise, here's the probability plot for different types of weather
04:04across the UK. The red and orange colours show high pressure, influential, and that's certainly
04:10dominant for the first few days of this forecast. Then it's really from the start of next week where
04:15these blues appear. Those blues represent weather patterns that are driven by low pressure. So turning
04:20increasingly unsettled for the final week of summer and beyond. And that's really highlighted
04:25by these pressure anomaly charts from the European model. This is the current week. We're seeing high
04:31pressure dominant to the north of the UK, keeping things unusually dry. But then for the final week
04:38of summer, it's a complete switch around with most likely low pressure sitting just over or to the
04:45southwest of the UK, keeping things predominantly wetter than average, especially for the southwest
04:51of the UK. So a big change on the way. It looks like the bank holiday weekend starts off dry with high
04:58pressure in charge. Then throughout next week, it turns increasingly unsettled from the southwest. Spells
05:04of rain and showers. Windy at times. Certainly looks like a taste of autumn for the final week of summer. Bye-bye.
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