00:00Welcome along to your 14-day outlook that takes us well into October.
00:05And we have some classic autumnal fare on the way.
00:09Quite a bit of a switch around in the shorter term.
00:12High pressure has been dominating across the south.
00:14Some sunshine, some foggy mornings, but that is all about to change.
00:18The jet stream is getting energised.
00:21And down in the tropics we have a couple of tropical cyclones.
00:25And they are going to help to spawn this area of low pressure
00:28that as it interacts with the powerful jet stream
00:30turns into a pretty big beast,
00:34likely to develop some very strong winds and some heavy rain
00:37through the course of Friday night and into Saturday.
00:41Now, this is the 14-day outlook, so I'm not going to focus on that too much.
00:45If you want to know more about the shorter term,
00:47check out our YouTube channel much more in the way of details on that.
00:50And for the weather warnings, they're, of course, on our app and on our website.
00:55So this is the longer-term forecast.
00:57So what happens once that low pressure is out of the way?
01:00It looks like a bit of a ridge might build in.
01:02But the jet stream remains active,
01:04and that is going to continue to push low-pressure systems our way
01:07through the early part of next week.
01:09Looks like low pressure will dominate up to the north of the UK.
01:12That's the most likely set-up through Sunday and Monday,
01:16bringing in southwesterly winds and bringing in plenty of showers
01:19and more heavy rain, particularly so to western parts of Scotland.
01:23Even by Tuesday, that is still the most likely weather set-up.
01:26So with west or southwesterly winds, it'll be western areas that face
01:31most of the spells of rain or frequent showers and the gusty winds also.
01:36Eastern areas may see a little bit of shelter.
01:38So although it'll be breezy here, there should at least be some
01:40more decent chance of some drier and brighter interludes
01:44through Sunday to the Tuesday period.
01:48What about beyond that?
01:49Well, it looks as if the weather's going to remain pretty changeable.
01:52Low pressure continues to dominate somewhere up to the north of the UK.
01:56The winds continue to come in from the west through the rest of the following working week.
02:01So again, it'll be western areas that bear the brunt of the heavy showers.
02:05But high pressure is trying to build in across the south,
02:09and there are some signs that that may happen as we head towards the following weekend.
02:14Not guaranteed, of course, and it's far from dry everywhere.
02:18It depends on the position of the high.
02:20But there are some signs that higher pressure may start to build in,
02:24and so the jet stream and the low-pressure systems will be back further north,
02:27pushing in towards Iceland.
02:29The probability plot shows a lot of blue, suggesting that our weather's going to be
02:35dominated by west or southwesterly winds through the short term and through the medium term.
02:41The back end of this forecast period towards the following weekend, second weekend in October,
02:46there are a few more reds around, suggesting, as I said, that higher pressure may start to move in,
02:51certainly across more southern parts.
02:53But generally speaking, changeable, unsettled through that second week,
02:58often fairly showery, with the strongest winds across the north.
03:02In the south, if the high pressure builds in and the winds fall light at this time of year,
03:05it could lead to some fog, but generally the driest conditions and the brightest conditions by day in the south.
03:11And with the winds coming in from the west to the southwest,
03:13temperatures generally close to average by day.
03:17As always, for the day-to-day outlook, please do stay up-to-date.
03:21With all things from the Met Office, best way to do that, follow us on social media and subscribe to our YouTube channel.
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