00:00Whether it's going to be turning good or bad, well, that all depends on your view of the weather.
00:05But it's fair to say things are going to become more unsettled as we go through this 14-day outlook.
00:11We can see that in our probability plot.
00:13Remember, reds, oranges highlight high pressure, generally more settled conditions,
00:18which is what we have as we go into the long bank holiday weekend for much of the country.
00:23Then as we go through, well, the middle part of next week, we're seeing stronger signs of blues developing.
00:28And that really does indicate a change to something markedly more unsettled,
00:33a mobile pattern with low pressure systems coming in from the Atlantic.
00:37But if we look at the detail, and currently we have high pressure across the UK.
00:42And with that, we've dragged in some warmer air, which is why temperatures are a little bit above average as we go through this long weekend.
00:50But then the high pressure is going to drift away towards the east as we go through, well, Sunday, Monday,
00:56still clinging on, so still bring some fine weather for a little while.
00:58Yet, but as we go into the middle of next week, that's when we'll start to feel the influence of what's currently Hurricane Erin.
01:06By the time it comes close to us, it'll have gone through an extratropical transition.
01:09It's not going to be a hurricane, no, not at all, but it is going to be a relatively deep air of low pressure.
01:14Now, it looks like it's actually going to push northwards before it comes as far east as the UK and head more towards Iceland.
01:20But nonetheless, we're going to feel the influence of it with spells of wet and perhaps windy weather pushing through from the middle of the week onwards.
01:27And that's kind of the theme that we have through the, well, the rest of the 14-day period, really.
01:32It's looking fairly unsettled.
01:34If we look at the most likely setups for next Thursday, the 28th of August, and, yeah, low pressure somewhere towards the north of the UK looks most likely.
01:41And even the second and third most likely setups, well, they indicate low pressure either across or near the UK.
01:48So it goes in line with something a bit wetter, a bit windier, a bit breezier, and a bit cooler as well, perhaps for many places.
01:55A similar theme as we go through Friday, in fact, into the following weekend as well, the idea of low pressure being the most likely setup somewhere around the UK.
02:04By a week on Monday, signs of a slight change, but still low pressure being the big talking point in most of the model outputs.
02:13And that's the theme as well for next Tuesday.
02:15In fact, by next Tuesday, it could, well, not next Tuesday, the Tuesday after, it could be a relatively deeper area of low pressure somewhere towards the south.
02:23We can see that same pattern if we look at the anomaly charts for the week beginning the 1st of September from ECMWF.
02:30And the greeny blues indicating that low pressure most likely or lower than average pressure most likely across the UK through that week.
02:38And with that, as you would expect, it looks like it's going to be a bit wetter than average.
02:42And by then, we are going to be in the start of autumn.
02:44So that's relatively wet.
02:47But with the unsettled weather, temperatures are actually, if anything, going to be a little bit above average, albeit towards the south, kind of closer to average.
02:55Worth bearing in mind with the mobile pattern, there will be some wet weather, some windy weather coming through at times.
03:00But there will also be some drier, perhaps brighter spells.
03:03And so with temperatures near or a little bit above average, it should feel relatively warm at times, despite it then being meteorological autumn.
03:10I'll see you again soon.
03:11Bye-bye.
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