Met Office 14 day weather outlook 18/03/2025

Met Office

14 day outlook presented by Alex Deakin.

Transcript

00:00This 14-day outlook will take us right to the end of March.

00:03Will it be going out as it came in?

00:05Rather like a lamb.

00:06Well, there's no strong signals for the weather patterns

00:09for much of next week, as is often the case.

00:12Hard to predict the longer term at this time of the year.

00:16The shorter term, though, we are in for a change.

00:18High pressure that's been dominating,

00:20bringing plenty of sunny spells through this week,

00:23slinking away to the south.

00:24And low pressure, which is bringing

00:26wet and windy conditions to Spain and Portugal,

00:29will slowly creep towards us.

00:31And that will bring a change for us for the weekend,

00:33looking much more showery.

00:34It's been a very dry March so far.

00:37We are in for some wet weather over the course of the weekend.

00:40What about beyond that?

00:41Well, the jet stream's driving to the south,

00:43creating this trough, this dip, which

00:45is where the low pressures are sitting,

00:47but showing signs of pulling away.

00:48And there's just a little ridge of high pressure

00:50toppling in there.

00:51And that's the most likely weather pattern

00:52as we go into next week, with high pressure just sitting

00:55down to the southwest, generating the breeze coming

00:58in from the northwest, which will turn things cooler.

01:00So after things warm up this week,

01:02we will see things likely turn cooler, temperatures

01:05back closer to average through the weekend

01:07and into the early part of next week.

01:10Beyond that, well, the probability plot

01:13is a kaleidoscope, a real mishmash.

01:15No really strong signals as we go through next week

01:20with many of the different flavours of weather

01:22equally likely.

01:23There is a bit of a hint there that that darker to mid blue

01:26is the most likely probability.

01:29That's the highest probability, the most likely weather

01:32scenario.

01:32That's for a northwesterly dominated airstream,

01:35so the winds coming in from the northwest, which would

01:38keep things generally cooler.

01:40That's generally the pressure pattern.

01:42When you've got high pressure down to the southwest,

01:44the wind's toppling around that coming in from the northwest.

01:47That's the most likely pressure pattern

01:49through much of next week, particularly by Thursday,

01:51with low way up to the yet northeast.

01:54Second most likely pressure pattern is similar,

01:58but in this one, the low is a little closer

02:01and the high is a little further away.

02:02And the third most likely, that high

02:05is just a little further north, generating

02:07more of a northerly wind.

02:08So all of these would indicate temperatures

02:10will be around or below average through next week.

02:13So after a chilly week last week and a warmer week this week,

02:17we're back to cooler conditions, it looks

02:19like, for much of next week.

02:21And so even towards the end of the week,

02:23well, the numbers, the percentage chance

02:25of the most likely pressure patterns really dropping away.

02:28So as I said at the start, not a lot of confidence

02:31in the longer range, as is often the case at this time of year.

02:34But all of these pressure patterns are similar.

02:36They have high pressure close to the UK,

02:39which suggests our weather is going

02:41to be quite slow moving as we head

02:43towards the end of the month.

02:45So the most likely set up through next week

02:47is with that northwesterly breeze,

02:49showers across northern and western parts,

02:51some sunny spells, quite breezy here with temperatures

02:54around or below average.

02:55Further south, better chance of seeing some dry and sunnier

02:58days with temperatures after the warmth of this week

03:01back again closer to average or perhaps even a touch below.

03:05And then for that next weekend, the final few days of March,

03:09slow moving weather patterns are most likely,

03:12but there are no strong signals.

03:13So if you've got plans, you really

03:15do need to keep up to date with the forecasts.

03:18We'll have more in our 10-day trend, of course.

03:20But the most likely setup is for typical spring weather

03:24for the last days of March.

03:26Thanks for watching.

03:27Do keep up to date with the forecast.

03:28Best way to do that, subscribe to our YouTube channel

03:30or follow us across social media.

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