00:00I want to give you the latest on tropical storm air.
00:03It hasn't changed much throughout the morning hours.
00:06Still moving pretty quick, though, west of 20 miles per hour.
00:09And that tells you that there's a lot of stronger winds in the middle and upper part of the atmosphere
00:14and some wind shear, although it is moving with the storm.
00:17It is over warmer water, and it may get a little better organized today.
00:21But the time frame to watch is going to be beginning later tomorrow and then Friday and Saturday.
00:25This is going to intensify into a major hurricane.
00:28That's Category 3 or greater, maximum staying winds of at least 111 miles per hour.
00:33Early next week, it's located east of the Bahamas.
00:35Regardless of the track, rough surf, at least rough surf, if not damaging surf and rip currents
00:41across the entire east coast next week.
00:45All right, joining me now is Chief Meteorologist John Porter.
00:49And, you know, John, you and I, whenever we start tracking hurricanes and storms,
00:55and you're a proponent of this as well,
00:57we always like to take a look at, okay, what's the history of where the storm is located now
01:04and what history says where it's going to go?
01:07Behind you are all of the storm tracks within 60 nautical miles of where Aaron is located now
01:13during the months of August and September.
01:16And I think it's some useful information.
01:19It sure is.
01:20It puts us in a historical context.
01:22Here's the current location of Aaron.
01:24And here's the U.S. east coast, or I should say the United States here,
01:29the U.S. east coast, D.C., down into the Carolinas and through here, just for reference.
01:33And notice lots of the tracks are what we call a recurve.
01:37They move to the west, and then the storm oftentimes will move along the periphery of an upper-level area of high pressure.
01:46And that can be a problem just for marine interests off the U.S. east coast.
01:50But a few tracks of similar storms in similar positions do get back to the east coast.
01:56And some of those were pretty significant storms, Bernie.
01:58Yeah, Isabel, the Long Island Express, Earl, and Gloria, all in those tracks.
02:05And I counted them up.
02:06There's 52 storms.
02:08Seven had direct impacts of rain and wind.
02:11So that's about 85 percent of them recurved.
02:14So that's where we start, John, with Aaron.
02:17We just had map discussion.
02:19I don't think we decided to change anything with our current iPad.
02:23No, our team of hurricane experts were reviewing all the latest data and information into the AccuWeather Hurricane Center.
02:30And no changes to this track, the idea that the storm is going to continue to move to the west.
02:35But then it starts making a turn to the north here as we make our way from Saturday into Sunday, intensifying as it does so.
02:42And that's where we're going to be watching the track details there very carefully because the time at which it turns to the north is going to be very critical.
02:50Yeah, and this is what I call the first fork in the road.
02:53There's always forks in the road.
02:55I think there's two of them.
02:56Early next week, Sunday, Monday, and then Tuesday and Wednesday.
03:00But I think this is the most critical time, John, because we're not – is this really going to turn as quickly to the north as the guidance suggests?
03:12And why is that important?
03:13It's very important because if it does make that turn to the north, then that's going to quickly lower the risk across Florida and South Carolina, for example.
03:23And we'd be able to issue all clears there.
03:25We are not doing that yet because we'll have to wait for that actual turn to the north to occur.
03:30Then the next question, Bernie, after that is, is the storm kicked out to sea or is it able to be drawn a little bit closer to the coast?
03:39And I think we have some clarity on that because that all depends on the depth of the dip in the jet stream coming into the east.
03:46Now, there is still a possibility that that dip in the jet stream is farther west.
03:51And if that's the case, then Aaron could be drawn in closer.
03:54But it appears to us right now it is not 100 percent but likely that that dip in the jet stream is along the east coast, turns Aaron out to sea.
04:04But the question is, is we go back – we go back to this, John, right?
04:08We go back – we go right back to this.
04:11Is it on the southern track or on the northern track?
04:14That's why right now this seems to be the critical move.
04:18Yeah, this is the big – the critical move.
04:20And look at that point.
04:21That's around Sunday afternoon.
04:23And that's when we would want to start to see that storm taking its turn to the north.
04:27As mentioned, that looks likely.
04:29And when that happens, that would give us confidence that there would be lower risk of direct impacts, for example, in Florida.
04:36I made this graphic this morning.
04:37We all came together on it.
04:38Okay, given the history, which says 85 percent of the storms where Aaron is located now during the month of August and September, do not bring direct impacts for the U.S.
04:51And given what we're looking at now with the pattern, we came up with about 70 percent chance that there's no direct impacts or rain and wind along the east coast from Aaron.
05:04Correct.
05:04And that is why we're highlighting this so that people can relate to this and understand that there's most likely not going to be direct impacts.
05:14But still, that means a 30 percent chance that there can be rain and wind impacts somewhere along the coast.
05:19This is an AccuWeather exclusive, John.
05:21Let's go over this graphic.
05:22This is important.
05:24Right.
05:24And you'll find this only here at AccuWeather.
05:26We're highlighting a moderate risk of impacts along the North Carolina coastline, a low risk along the rest of the east coast.
05:33Notice that it does include Florida.
05:34We haven't all cleared anywhere except from Tallahassee westbound across the Florida peninsula.
05:40But the greatest risks for direct impacts would be along the North Carolina coast.
05:43All right.
05:44And again, if we see that turn to the north Sunday, this map will change dramatically with lots of all clears.
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