00:00We've been following a pattern here at the AccuWeather headquarters of more anticipated tropical development in the days to come.
00:08Yeah, it looks like things are going to be getting quite active here as we move into the month of August.
00:12And, you know, it's expected that it is going to be that way.
00:15You know, September 10th is the statistical peak of the hurricane season.
00:19So we're a little over a month away from that, and it's slowly going to climb up from here.
00:23So taking a look at the chart here, the average fourth named storm, which we just had with Dexter, is August 15th.
00:30So we're about 10 days or so ahead of schedule.
00:34We have not seen our first hurricane yet.
00:36That usually comes August 11th.
00:39And then, of course, we are still keeping an eye on the rest of the Atlantic Basin.
00:44There's a lot going on.
00:45You see Dexter there, but there's two areas towards the U.S. coastline.
00:48Yeah, there's two areas there.
00:49The first area, the one of more concern is that orange area here.
00:53We're going to have to watch for some development off the southeast coast.
00:56It has a very narrow window to do so.
00:58So we're going to have to watch that very carefully.
01:00We have another area way out in the middle of the Atlantic that we're going to be tracking here over the next 7 to 10 days.
01:05And then another area in the eastern Gulf here with a low chance of development a little further out August 10th to 12th.
01:13Now, that orange area we've been talking about close to the Carolina-Florida coastline,
01:17that one is focusing on this week here in the next few days.
01:21Yeah, this is the one with more immediate concern.
01:23It doesn't look like it's going to blow up into a hurricane or anything like that.
01:27But the waters are warm off the southeast coast.
01:29A little piece of energy is going to be coming in from the Bahamas.
01:32You can track that energy right now.
01:34It's north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola right now.
01:37Very disorganized right now, dealing with some wind shear in that area.
01:40But gradually it's going to move northwest over the next couple of days.
01:43It's going to move over that very warm water.
01:45And there's a chance we could get a tropical depression or tropical storm out of it before it finally moves into the southeast.
01:51Then we have to talk about this other large red area that we're talking about through the Atlantic.
01:57It's a big area of concern, but it all comes from one tropical wave.
02:00Yeah, indeed it does.
02:02And it looks like that tropical wave is actually just emerging from Africa right now.
02:06You can see it circled there with that circle there just coming off into the Atlantic right now.
02:11But look at all the orange and yellow in its way.
02:13It does have its work cut out for it, at least for the next couple of days here.
02:18It's going to be dealing with some wind shear and some dry air.
02:21But I think, you know, maybe towards the end of the week or towards the weekend,
02:25if it can survive that journey through the dry air, we might have another named storm on our hands.
02:31Now models have been kind of split on where it goes, how close to the Caribbean and the Bahamas it would hug,
02:36or how far out to sea.
02:37Right now it does seem to be a trend more in the southwest of Atlantic and away from the coastlines.
02:41What can you say about when we would have better timing on that analysis?
02:45Probably mid to late week.
02:47You know, a lot of times the models struggle when the tropical wave is still over the continent of Africa.
02:52Once it comes out over the Atlantic, a lot of times we can have a better idea of where it's going to go.
02:57Most of the guidance right now says it's going to be lifting north of the Antilles and then probably turning out to sea.
03:03However, we have to watch it very carefully because we always watch that Bermuda high that sits up just east of Bermuda.
03:10If that's a little bit stronger, it could push it a little further closer to the United States.
03:15Plenty of time to watch it, but we're going with a high risk of development here in the next week or so.
03:20Plenty of time to watch it in the next week or so.
03:27To see where it goes...
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