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00:00The tariffs have a one-time impact in raising prices.
00:04Once that impact is over, it depends on how strong spending is.
00:16Welcome to the Myers Report Fast 15. It is Friday, July 18th, 2025. And as we say,
00:24it seems to say almost every week, I can't believe the year is going this fast.
00:28Anyway, on the national scene, call it national insanity or desperation from the left.
00:36But on Wednesday, the United Kingdom lowered their voting age to 16. Why not 14? Why not 12?
00:44The answer is simple. People at 16 do not have mature brains capable of making completely rational decisions.
00:53This is why in the UK, they have age limits for drinking, 18, driving, 17, and 16 for the legal age of sexual consent.
01:05Any idiot knows that while it may be legal, sex at 16 is not rational.
01:11It is definitely emotional. And usually it's irrational.
01:16Be that as it may. The left knows this. And the left cares big time.
01:21For the sake of power, the left would allow the rape of their culture
01:25and allow infants to vote along with non-citizens and open immigration of people
01:32who refuse to assimilate and who would destroy their culture just so the left can stay in power.
01:39Maybe it's time to say goodbye, Britain. It was nice to know you.
01:44However, let's pray for the UK and how they can recover.
01:48And we must never let that happen here, even though the left keeps on trying,
01:53keeps on trying by gaslighting us against basic logic.
01:58Okay. That being said, Don, how's the weather looking for Texas?
02:02Are they getting any flood relief?
02:05The answer is yes. Now, they still have had in the last week more rain, more flooding.
02:10That's really hampered recovery activities to the flooding down there.
02:14However, they're now going to go in reverse.
02:16They're going to shift gears and go into a hot, dry pattern, drier pattern.
02:21In a lot of the same flood areas, they're going to go into some hot, dry weather.
02:26That's going to go for quite a while.
02:29Now, good news is...
02:30Define quite a while.
02:31Well, you know, probably a couple of weeks at least.
02:35This is a big summer high that we normally see set up this time of year.
02:40And what that will do is that will shift away the flow of the subtropical air
02:44that's just been funneling into Texas.
02:46It'll shift it more to the west.
02:49So that's going to help the flood areas.
02:51And this heat will also expand into Kansas, Missouri, parts of the western Corn Belt.
02:57It's going to be some hot summer weather while thunderstorms and just very muggy summer weather will be found elsewhere.
03:04We also have had some activity along the Gulf Coast this week with some heavy rain in Florida and Louisiana.
03:10That stops short of becoming a tropical storm.
03:14But we'll need to watch that Gulf region maybe next week for maybe the formation of another system.
03:20So we have had a quiet tropical season so far, but it should be heating up here in the weeks ahead.
03:27Is there anything that you see happening in terms of weather worldwide that would have any impact either on food or geopolitics?
03:37I don't.
03:38I mean, we're still watching in China.
03:41They've had flooding in parts of China and they've got droughts in parts of China.
03:45And that's something that we're watching, especially in the key growing areas of the east and northeast where it's been drier.
03:53But we've been able to get through this week without any weather-related national disasters, knock on wood.
04:00So it's been a little bit more quiet.
04:03Isaac, what are the truckers and carriers really saying this week?
04:08What's hot?
04:09What's not?
04:10What's the freight buzz?
04:12Yeah, well, carriers are busy.
04:13Truckers are happy.
04:14I was talking to a couple here in our shop with the outside carriers as well.
04:18We also work on outside carriers, so we get a really good pulse on those guys too.
04:22They're finally seeing some relief.
04:24The surge of imports that we're expecting that's done from the 90-day tarot pause finally hit our shores here late June.
04:31So we're having a really, really busy July and carriers are benefiting from that.
04:35We saw spot rates on the spot market board jump for dry vans 21 cents a mile.
04:43The largest weekly jump since 2008.
04:49Reefer rates surged by about 20 cents.
04:51Overall, across all market segments, we're up about 5 cents here so far.
04:57One second.
04:57Isaac, 21 cents a mile.
04:59What does that mean in terms of-
05:0221 cents a mile is about a 20% increase in per mile rate for flatbed shipments, and you got 21 cents on the dry vans.
05:12So you talked about a 21, sorry, a 20% spike in rate per mile.
05:18And how does that bring you to break, does that bring the industry to break even?
05:22Um, that's, that's, that's a harder, well, in terms of operating, that gets the industry, in terms of operating per mile cost, that gets the industry to a profit.
05:31Most carriers operate at about $2 to $2.05 a mile.
05:37Okay.
05:37So, but it's not a huge profit, but it's a sustainable profit is what I hear you say.
05:41It's a sustainable profit in a three and a half year stretch where carriers have not made much profit.
05:46So I would say a major, major win, but probably going to be pretty short lived here.
05:50Okay.
05:51Looking down at, uh, what's coming up next, what's your forecast for, we looking for bounce, bust, or just dust?
06:02I think unlikely in terms of bounce, you know, any major surge is going to be muted by any type of inventory drags or, you know, and continued policy uncertainty.
06:12Right now, like I said, we're benefiting from this tariff, uh, pause and the spike, but that, that, that wave will fade fast.
06:19I was actually at Lowe's yesterday.
06:21I called my wife and I go, lo and behold, I go, I see Halloween decor up right now.
06:28And I literally had to ask Allison, I swear to God, right?
06:30Really?
06:31Yes.
06:32I go, Allison, hang on.
06:33You talk about the year moving so fast.
06:35I go, we're in July, right?
06:37Like mid-July here, right?
06:38I had to, I had to, I had to double check with my wife.
06:41So, um, with this, um, with this 90 day pause that has now passed, a lot of retailers have, have, you know, brought in imports and, you know, we're benefiting it from today.
06:52But I'm, I'm definitely, there's definitely, um, reason to be concerned about quarter four here.
06:59That's interesting, Isaac, because I had the same reaction.
07:02My wife and I were walking through Sam's and I looked up and there are skeletons and pumpkins.
07:07And I said, wait, what month are we in?
07:09I said, did I miss something?
07:14I said, are they already selling the Halloween stuff now?
07:17I was confused, but, uh, I see the reason for it now.
07:21Yep, yep.
07:21And my wife, my wife, yes, same exact, my wife, my wife's response was, oh, that's early.
07:28And I was like, yeah, yeah, don't forget, that's bad for us.
07:31Allison and I go, listen, we have to look at it from a different angle here.
07:35That is not good for us.
07:38Isaac, how's it looking for the third and fourth quarter?
07:42You know, uh, third and fourth quarter, I think it's going to be a lot of just grind.
07:47It's going to be a lot of grind.
07:49You know, we're going to benefit, again, like I said, from the surge that we're feeling now.
07:52I see that going away come, you know, late August.
07:55I was really hopeful about this kind of stretching us into peak season.
07:58But again, you know, the fact is holiday, you know, holiday inventory is already here.
08:06You know, that's the stuff that we're seeing, Bob, you know, on the actual floor.
08:10All the Christmas stuff is already, in fact, warehouses right now.
08:13So it's going to be a grind to get to the end of the year.
08:16No, that's what I, that's, that's what I think.
08:18So what other indicators are you looking at right now?
08:21The biggest indicator I'm looking at is rejection levels.
08:24Uh, right now we're sitting, we're sitting about eight, nine percent, right?
08:29But, but what's, which is, which is moderate, right?
08:32I wouldn't, you know, anything below five percent, you're definitely in recessionary mode.
08:36Anything above 15, anything above really 12 percent, you're, you're rocking and you're
08:40rolling.
08:40Uh, but we are seeing, we are seeing rejection rates spike.
08:45Any holiday week we come across, any type of disruption, like a DOT safety blitz week where
08:51many truck drivers take off versus, you know, going into the safety blitz week.
08:57Um, and then obviously holiday weeks where drivers take off for holidays.
09:01When, when, when we're coming across those week, we're seeing rejection rates go north
09:05of 12 percent.
09:06So, which is telling us that, you know, capacity and demand is really starting to kind of level
09:12out here and, you know, and whether it's a nice uptick in demand, you know, once that
09:17really gets where it needs to be and, and, and stays there for, for more than a month,
09:23a month and a half, I think, I think the industry is really primed for a good, a really solid bounce
09:29back.
09:29The other thing, the other thing in terms of rejection levels that we're really going to
09:35be looking out for is the English proficiency order that Trump signed in.
09:39What was it?
09:40Two months ago now that went back June 25th.
09:43So we're not even 30 days in, and we're already hearing through the chatters of the industry,
09:48especially here in Chicago, that not only is it wiping out some capacity, it's, it's really
09:54making, it's really giving truck drivers who don't speak English second thought before
10:00they go to truck driving school and try to get into the industry.
10:03So that's the other thing that can really, really, really turn things around here in
10:07the industry in the next, I would say six months.
10:10Okay, Bob, how's the inflation picture looking right now?
10:14Well, the, we've got a ton of good news.
10:17The inflation is not the greatest of news.
10:20Although if you just believe everything you read in the newspaper this past week, inflation
10:26is down.
10:27It's really great.
10:28The CPI is down, the wholesale prices are unchanged.
10:32I would raise questions about that.
10:35I think this is reporting was somewhat misleading.
10:38The latest month, the CPI-
10:40What a second, you mean the newspapers might be misleading?
10:42Yes.
10:44I just think they misinterpreted it.
10:47For example, the last month, the latest month, June, the CPIs were up about 3%.
10:53Now, yes, that's down from the peak, but it's not anywhere near the 2% area that the Fed
11:00wants on a year-over-year basis.
11:01And if you look at the past six months, it's the same thing.
11:04The most recent six-month period is just over 3% for both-
11:09This is significantly lower than what we saw under the Biden administration.
11:14Yeah, it's lower, but we're not looking.
11:17We're always looking at changes.
11:19And the year-over-year changes are under 3%.
11:21So if the last six months is 3%, we're moving in the wrong direction, at least at the moment.
11:26Same with the wholesale prices.
11:28I listened to every report I heard or read about said wholesale prices were unchanged in June.
11:36Well, there are several different measures of wholesale prices.
11:39The one that I look at, the most reliable, or one of the most reliable, is the wholesale prices
11:44on finished goods, core, X, food, and energy.
11:49And that was up 3.5% this past month.
11:51That's not zero.
11:53Now, there are indicators that were up zero, but basically, the news highlighted all the
11:59good news on inflation.
12:01Now, I don't want to downplay that because there is a lot of good news coming.
12:04We just had Congress pass the rescinding bill that rescinds $9 billion of spending.
12:12These were the spending measures that Doge identified as being totally wasteful, that no
12:18one in their right mind would really vote on doing this.
12:22And this rescinds $9 billion.
12:25That adds to an already favorable numbers that we're seeing coming in on the federal budget.
12:31So basically, the federal budget's looking really good.
12:34That's excellent news for the economy right now.
12:36So federal spending is down.
12:39What about income?
12:41Yeah.
12:41Let me just elaborate on that.
12:44Federal spending in the four months since Trump has had an impact, that is February, March,
12:51April, May, and June.
12:53Five months.
12:53Sorry about that.
12:54In those five months, relative to a year ago, actual federal spending has zero increase.
13:01So, and I have not seen that for any number of months for many, many, many years.
13:08So that's, to me, an indication that the Doge cuts and the other cuts now that are going
13:14to be verified by the latest bill, they are really having an impact on federal spending,
13:20which is good.
13:21The other part, which if you're worried about deficits, is also very good, is the receipts
13:28are coming in very strongly.
13:30Receipts for the five months that Trump has an impact, February, March, April, May, and
13:35June, those receipts are up 11% from a comparable period a year ago.
13:42So that's a combination of tariff revenues and really strong profits.
13:49We're getting some early numbers on profits for the second quarter, and the estimates were
13:55very high.
13:56And 88% of the numbers that are coming in have exceeded those estimates.
14:01So if profits are doing well, the economy is doing well.
14:06And, of course, it's all reflected in the stock market.
14:10Okay, so the tariffs are getting good results.
14:13The cry that many people had that tariffs were going to be an economic disaster seemed to
14:19be, well, wrong.
14:21Yes, not an economic disaster, but a disruptive influence.
14:25And it's one of the factors that's probably holding the inflation in the 3%, 3.5% vicinity
14:30instead of letting it come down all the way.
14:33Now, the good news is the tariffs have a one-time impact in raising prices.
14:39Once that impact is over, it depends on how strong spending is.
14:43And the figures I'm looking at on the money supply tell me that we're not going to have
14:48soaring spending.
14:50If you look at just some of the M2 data, for example, money supply is up about 4% over the
14:57past year.
14:58That's not enough to stimulate 6%, 7% growth in spending in the economy.
15:04It more likely will keep spending in the vicinity of 4%.
15:09Now, why do you want spending to go in the vicinity of 4%?
15:14Well, with all this good news coming about rescinding federal spending and all the regulatory
15:19changes that have been made, we have huge amounts of money, maybe a trillion dollars,
15:24that has shifted from government waste and regulation into the private productive economy.
15:31And that's all good news, because it may be conceivable that we will see real growth
15:37at 3% or even 4%.
15:39And if spending is up at 4% or 5%, you have 4% real growth, you don't have room for a lot
15:48of inflation.
15:48So I still see the inflation rates coming down, coming down toward the end of the year.
15:52This is all very good news.
15:55Okay.
15:56And the stock market, the S&P 500 and other indices have either hit all-time highs or are
16:02really close.
16:04And really amazing here.
16:05You know, I've talked about this short-term momentum model that I had that signaled we
16:10should be back in the market in early May.
16:14And it's been very positive ever since.
16:16All of that's been very good.
16:17But the last 17 days, I'm talking days, every day, my model has been at its maximum reading
16:26it could be in terms of bullishness and momentum.
16:29It's been at 100.
16:30I went back a couple of decades and could not find another period when we extended every day
16:37at the absolute maximum in terms of bullishness.
16:42Now, the market will correct at some time.
16:45It's overdue for a correction.
16:46I've talked about that.
16:48But the latest numbers right through yesterday suggest that the upward momentum is as strong
16:54as it ever has been.
16:56Okay.
16:57Don, are you optimistic going forward in the future?
17:01Well, after hearing Bob, yeah, I'm really optimistic.
17:04Isaac, you have a new baby due.
17:10Is it quite momentarily yet?
17:12Are you optimistic?
17:14It could be any day now.
17:15Officially, our due date is July 31st, but we're going in Monday.
17:18And we'll see how that goes.
17:20They might take a run.
17:20Hey, listen, you have our permission to stretch it out so we could do it on a fast 15.
17:27Yeah.
17:28So I presume there is nothing that could dampen your spirits at this time.
17:32Well, no, a lot of great stuff.
17:35And then I echo exactly what Don just said.
17:38You know, hearing what Bob just said makes me very optimistic.
17:40You're talking three, four, maybe even 5% real growth.
17:44Well, guess what?
17:45We moved that stuff.
17:46So let's keep it going.
17:48Bob, I take it you're optimistic?
17:51Is the Pope Catholic?
17:53Yes, I'm very optimistic.
17:54I'm very optimistic.
17:57Okay.
17:58Thank you, everybody.
17:59Have a good week.
18:01Stay well.
18:01Stay safe.
18:02And God bless America.
18:04And God bless America.
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