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00:00Head of Walmart said, well, we have this Thanksgiving basket of goods that we put
00:05together each year, the turkey and all the dressings and everything else for a family of four.
00:10He said, this year, the prices are down 25% from what they were a year ago.
00:25Welcome to the Myers Report Fast 15. It is Friday.
00:28Our forecast, yesterday's spike in oil prices was based on people messing up with their counting
00:36barrels. Look for the oil price to stay within the lower range of our already projected $57 to $67
00:44per barrel, as we originally forecast. As originally stated on Wednesday, October 22nd by 2025, by the
00:54end of 2027, look for CNN to be either moderate or even conservative in their presentation.
01:03Other left-wing media will be following along. The left is losing on all fronts, public opinion,
01:10election integrity, rule fixes, court cases, and soon big time at the ballot boxes. Watch for a
01:18resulting increase in violence as demonstrations of the left's panicking.
01:26Don Day, welcome back from ballooning and pheasant hunting. We presume that as chief of weather
01:33in Albuquerque, you kept all 700 balloon crews safe. How did that go?
01:40Well, I tried my best, and for the most part, it was a very good balloon fiesta with very few
01:45incidents. We had mostly good weather, so it was a very successful event. This is an event that brings
01:5260,000 to 90,000 people a day out to see the balloons and other events going on, so it's quite
01:59the big production. Excellent. And then you went pheasant hunting. How did you bag any pheasants?
02:09Well, let's put it this way. I didn't have the choice on what day I could hunt, and unfortunately,
02:15we picked the windiest day to hunt, and so as soon as the pheasants went up in the air,
02:20my poor dog Winston there would just helplessly watch the bird get blown away in the wind, and
02:27my shooting in the wind isn't very good, but it was a wonderful hike, a beautiful day,
02:33exception to the wind, and got the dog some good training.
02:36He's better looking than his namesake.
02:41Yes, his namesake of Winston, he's a little more better looking than Winston Churchill,
02:47that's for sure.
02:48Hey, Don, earlier this year, you were telling us that the Midwest winter was going to be longer,
02:54colder, maybe snowier than before. Do you have an update for that? Because I have to make a big
03:01decision on my snow plowing, whether to pay for the number of snow plows that are done,
03:06or just a whole package in advance.
03:09Well, there's some really strong indications that if you're in the snow removal business,
03:13it's going to be a good year for you, especially in the nation's midsection, and
03:17that would include your neck of the woods.
03:19So I would recommend paying a flat fee instead of paying per snow shoveling experience, because
03:27it's going to likely be, and we're going to see this start the middle of November. Watch the middle
03:32of November up to Thanksgiving. That's when things are really going to start to turn very wintry across
03:38a good part of the U.S.
03:39Okay, great.
03:42Don, are we in for any real weather over the next week or so?
03:47Yeah. Now, not necessarily in the U.S., but this is going to be making some headlines, and
03:52parts of the U.S. could be affected by it. We're going to have Hurricane Melissa. It's a tropical storm
03:57right now, and what's going to be unique about Melissa, it's going to barely move. It's likely going
04:04to become a hurricane Category 4 or 5, taking direct aim on Jamaica, Cuba, possibly Haiti, and
04:13we could see 30 inches or more of rain. It's going to be a very impactful hurricane, and even
04:21South Florida could be getting into tropical storm conditions next week. I don't think this is a
04:28mainland U.S. hurricane, but down there in the Caribbean, it's going to be a big one.
04:33Have they given it a name yet?
04:36It's Melissa.
04:38That sounds like such a sweet name.
04:40Well, Melissa, that's right.
04:43How will this weather impact drug shipments and interdiction coming out of Venezuela and Colombia?
04:50Well, put it this way, the weather will be more dangerous for drug runners than the U.S.
04:56military with this hurricane. Let's put it that way. I don't think we'll have any shipping of any
05:01consequence for a good week next week in that part of the world.
05:05That's excellent. Is there anything else on the weather horizon?
05:08No, other than I mentioned, you know, not a lot going on in the U.S. The middle part of November,
05:13get ready for things to get a lot more interesting with winter weather.
05:16Okay. Bob Zanetsky, the stock markets gained back the little that they lost the previous week. What's
05:25going on? Well, there are a lot of things going on that are affecting the stock market. I think one
05:30of the most important right now is the third quarter earnings reports, and they're coming in
05:35really strong. I mentioned this last week, and it's continued now. We're getting up closer to 20%
05:42of the companies having reported in, and the earnings are up like 15% from a year ago. I mean,
05:50that's really strong earnings. But even more significant is the analysts keep nudging their
05:57forecasts for the next year up, and they're forecasting another 15% increase in profits.
06:03Profits are already running something like 32% above their longer term trend. And by next year,
06:14if the analysts are right, we'll have profits that are 40%, 45% above their long term trend.
06:21So the companies are doing really well. The economy as a whole appears to be doing a heck of a lot
06:27better than some of, let's say, the employment numbers point to. Employment numbers point to weak
06:34job market, at least the ones that we've seen so far. And that is not characteristic of what we're
06:41seeing in the rest of the economy. This seems to go along with the projected lower fuel costs that
06:50we're seeing coming in. This is going to help. Yeah, we just got, interestingly, some numbers this
06:57morning on consumer prices. And they were nothing spectacular. They were just what had been estimated
07:05by most people, which was a half percent or two tenths of a percent increase for one measure of
07:12inflation and three tenths of a percent for the other. Year over year, three percent inflation. But
07:18that's for September. Now, October is going to be really interesting because the CEO of Walmart,
07:26was asked, interestingly, by a liberal reporter about the tariffs raising the prices of everything
07:34in October. And he said, you know, how just how bad are the tariffs impacting inflation?
07:41And the head of Walmart said, well, we have this Thanksgiving basket of goods that we put together
07:48each year, the turkey and all the dressings and everything else for a family of four.
07:52He said, this year, the prices are down 25 percent from what they were a year ago.
07:59And the reporter was shocked. You know, I said, wow, that's something. And if you look at oil prices,
08:04they're down about 17, 18 percent from where they were a year ago. So we're not in those two key areas.
08:10Well, they're down in October. Oil prices are down about six percent from September.
08:17Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. The point is, you know, in some of the really key areas, we're actually seeing
08:23deflation instead of inflation. So the the September figures, I don't think, are characteristic of
08:31the latest numbers. When we get the latest numbers, I think the inflation rates are going to look
08:35a heck of a lot better. So we've got two things going. We've got inflation being contained
08:41and we've got the economy looking really well. The Fed is going to come out with its meeting this
08:48coming week. It's going to announce its latest monetary policy decisions. They're going to be
08:54cutting the target rate by another quarter of a percent. So their target rate will be down to
09:01three and three quarters to four percent. That's a quarter of a percent drop. And the odds on that
09:08are really high. Financial markets are suggesting that they're like over 98 percent. So we can count
09:15on that. It's not going to be extraordinary news. But again, it's another move in a positive direction
09:22for getting interest rates down. The key interest rates such as home mortgage, home mortgage rates
09:29keep falling. Freddie Mac reported yesterday that the average 30 year fixed
09:34home mortgage is now down to 6.19 percent. And the 10 year treasury saw its yield go to 3.99,
09:45obviously below 4 percent. Yeah, it's good. It looks good. Interestingly enough, just like the
09:54momentum in the stock market that I keep talking about is very, very strong in an upward direction,
10:01continues to be strong. The momentum for interest rates falling is just as strong in the opposite
10:08direction. So from both of those areas, we're looking pretty good right now. So how does it look
10:14for home buyers on the housing market? It's going to look it's going to look a lot better. I also do
10:19some calculations of the percentage of the worker's salary that goes to mortgage rates. And that's based on
10:30two things based on the interest rates for mortgages, also based on the price of homes. And over the past
10:37year, that percentage has been dropping dramatically. So you've got a situation where the home buyers are
10:46going to have a slightly better situation in terms of the percentage of their salary that has to go to
10:55buy a house, if you're kind of like the average worker. So that's moving in the right direction.
11:00And one of the things that I know you've said, Gary, is you think next year is going to be a very strong
11:05year for the housing market. And I would agree. I think things are all moving in a very positive
11:11direction. As we've just discussed, oil is down 17 percent from a year ago and six percent for
11:21September. Do you think that's enough to really keep in to help keep inflation in check for the
11:27next year? Yes. Oil inflation in general tends to follow oil prices. Pretty solid relationship.
11:36So I believe it is. I believe the economy, even though it's strong, the strength is actually going
11:43to be positive in keeping the inflation down. And the reason for that is there's only a certain amount
11:48of money that the Fed has created that's in the economy. And I think it allows for spending to
11:54increase overall at about five to six percent. That's total spending, real and inflation. And if
12:01the productivity of the economy is coming on strong, as I believe it is, we're going to see real growth
12:08in the vicinity of three to four percent. And that will hold the overall inflation down.
12:13So I'm, you know, continue to be very optimistic about where we're heading.
12:20Don Day, taking the temperature of where you've been everywhere, when do you think that the
12:27government shutdown is going to end? Gosh, that's a good question. I hope sooner than later.
12:36It does affect a little bit of what I do because some of the data that I use, especially for long
12:42range forecasting, is closed for business right now. I would hope that we get done with this in a
12:50couple of weeks. Bob, when do you think it'll end? Oh, they're very interesting. My youngest son
12:57has been so far very correct on this. He said it will not end until after it exceeds the longest
13:04shutdown that existed before, which I think was 45 days, which would take us to mid-November. And I said,
13:11well, why that date? You know, other people said it's going to end when the financial markets and
13:21the betting end. And it's already past that date of betting. So they were wrong. The reason he says
13:28is because the Democrats actually believe that this is going to be a major positive to run on in the
13:35next election. That way they kept the government shut down longer than any other time. And therefore,
13:41it's all on Trump. I don't think that logic makes any sense. But so far, it's as good a guess as
13:47anything that they'll have to wait for the 46th day before they finally give in and open the government.
13:54That logic follows the same as being proud of making the biggest dump in the dorm.
14:00Well, there's not a lot of logic right now with some things. That's for sure. Logic seems to have
14:10been something that people just thought we don't need anymore.
14:14Don, are you optimistic with all this craziness about the future of our country?
14:21Yes, I remain very optimistic. And I think just getting back to fundamentals is where I think
14:28the last six months or so has been, which is get back to things that we know have worked in the past
14:35instead of trying all these new things is going to continue to help.
14:39Robert, Dr. Bob.
14:41You're going to be very optimistic.
14:43I am as well. I think that there's going to be a greater recognition of just how wonderful a country
14:51that we are living in. And brother, I think we are the shining light on the hill. We just have to
15:00keep that light burning brightly. Guys, have a great weekend. Be well, stay safe, and God bless America.
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