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00:00I know this is complicated, but when you sell securities, you put downward pressure on prices,
00:06which puts upward pressure on interest rates.
00:17Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Myers Report Fast 15. It is Friday, August 22nd,
00:232025. We're proud to announce that in a study that the Myers Report just released this past Monday,
00:31U.S. election integrity procedures, well, we're not happy about this part, fail when compared to
00:37countries in South America, Africa, Europe, and Asia. According to a 37-nation study that we just
00:46completed, the U.S. has the worst voting system of all the countries studied, basically the worst in
00:56the world. In terms of procedures, the U.S. comes in significantly behind, are you ready for this,
01:03Kenya, Mexico, Chile, Ghana, Italy, and Rwanda. You have a better chance of getting an honest
01:11election in Rwanda than you do in the United States. The key issues are mail-in ballots and
01:18touchscreen voting machines and a lack of voter ID. The point is, these things are not secure.
01:25If you do not have paper ballots, you have no way of doing recounts. And if you don't have voter ID,
01:31you have no idea who's going to be participating in the election. Not really. The U.S. is supposed to
01:38be the shining beacon on the hill for democracy, yet we're the only country that we've seen, that
01:44we've surveyed, that uses the honor system when you're either registering to vote or when you are
01:51voting. It's absolutely bizarre. To give you an idea as to how bad it is, overall, the U.S. had a score
02:00on a zero to a hundred level. The U.S. had a score of 60. Other nations averaged 81. Africa averaged 88.
02:11Western Europe was 79. Eastern Europe was 79. Asia and Oceania, which also includes Australia,
02:19was 82. And Latin America was 85. What's interesting is, with all the problems that are going on in South
02:27Africa, white South Africans have more faith in their election system than Americans do in ours,
02:35which is bizarre as it possibly could be. Don, when will it get cool in the U.S.?
02:44Well, very soon. I think Bob asked last week when he was going to get some relief from his air
02:50conditioning, and here it is. We've turned it off. We've turned it off.
02:56As you can see from the graphic here, a big cool down for the Central and Eastern United States
03:01for the last days of August. So this is going to erase the heat. And I mean, it's going to be just
03:10downright gorgeous in a lot of the nation. I mean, 70s, lower 80s, low humidity, that really
03:18mugginess is going to be, it's a taste of fall, basically. So we're going to cool down. It's
03:24going to get hot in the far west, which is usually what you see in these situations. So
03:28if you've been tired of the heat, here's a nice break for you.
03:32Is there going to be any heat coming back at any time this summer?
03:36Well, you could have some hot weather in September, but you know, we're a week from today,
03:41we're looking, staring down Labor Day weekend. So the opportunity for heat waves starts
03:48to diminish pretty quickly.
03:50Okay. Hurricane Aaron, how bad has it been? And is there another one coming in the wings?
03:57Well, Aaron was, we dodged a bullet. You know, it was a very big hurricane. It could have been
04:04very destructive and it caused a lot of wave action along the Outer Banks, along the Carolinas.
04:10It's not going to be very safe to be swimming along the East Coast over the next couple of days,
04:15but it's headed out to sea. And it's basically going to be done. As you can see from this graphic
04:21where you see X's, we have other tropical activity. That next X below Aaron, that's going to be
04:27probably another hurricane. But right now it's forecasted to stay out over the open waters.
04:32That one down further south between Africa and South America, that's something that is on the
04:38radar that may be something to deal with in about a week or so.
04:41Don, is there any truth to the Babylon Bee claim? Trump said that he, after a telephone
04:48call, the Aaron moved back out of the way of the U.S.?
04:53It's absolutely true. He imposed 80% tariffs on Aaron.
05:03Okay. Don, what's the winter outlook for 2025 and 2026?
05:10Thanks. We're going to have a good old fashioned winter. I would be ready for more of a wintry
05:17pattern in most of the United States. We're going to have below average temperatures and
05:21above average snowfall for a lot of the nation. This is a graphic that generally shows the temperature
05:28trends between December and February. Where you see the white and the blue is where it's going to be
05:35the coldest. And this is very generalized, but that also coincides with what, if you see the green
05:43areas there, you're going to have above average snowfall. So it's going to be a good year to be
05:49in the snow removal business for a lot of the U.S., especially the Midwest, the Great Lakes,
05:56the Rockies and the Northeast. This is very practical advice, John, because our snow removal
06:02service either does by the job or they do for the whole season, one flat fee. So your answer is take
06:11the one flat fee. Take the one flat fee. Yes, absolutely. And I'll only take 10%.
06:17Okay. Isaac, given the widespread attention on the illegal immigrant involved in a fatal trucking
06:26accident that killed three people in Florida, could this incident lead to tighter regulations
06:33or changes in the CDL licensing policies? Oh, absolutely. With the amount of news coverage
06:38that this accident is getting, really just on the heels of Trump signing this English proficiency
06:43executive order about a month, month and a half ago, there's going to be a tremendous amount of
06:48pressure that's already starting to build from the public over safety concerns from the industry.
06:53You know, our industry is also putting pressure on this because we don't like what we're seeing
06:57either, not only for the safety concerns of it, we have our families and ourselves that drive on
07:01these highways as well. But also just, you know, when we have all the, you know, illegal aliens
07:07or drivers who are coming over on these visas, which is more of the issue that we're seeing.
07:12One second. So the idea of an illegal alien getting a CDL is really a rarity.
07:19It is rare. It is rare. Yeah. I was surprised to read that. What's more and more common,
07:24especially in a post-COVID environment, is these work, these drivers that have been imported
07:29from many parts of Eastern Europe and parts of Africa. Now, what's really unique about this,
07:37and, you know, I've been in the Middle East, I've driven in the Middle East, and a lot of these
07:40drivers will come over here. And I've heard this historically throughout my entire career saying
07:44they know how to drive. They know how to drive, you know, sometimes better than their American
07:47counterparts because of the type of terrain that they drive in their home countries. Now, mind you,
07:52I've witnessed this. It is tough terrain. It is tighter than holy heck to drive a semi-truck in
07:57God knows where the Middle East or God knows where Africa or Eastern Europe. But it's the biggest
08:02challenge isn't just the tightness of the roads. It's all the other cars that are driving completely
08:08reckless and being able to be a part of that pack and not get into an accident. So that's,
08:15you got to have that skill in other parts of the country. But when you're in America,
08:19right, and we got to follow the rules of the road, you know, that's where we're seeing,
08:22do they know how to drive a truck? Yes. Do they know how to follow the rules of the road?
08:25A lot of times, many do not. Is the crackdown on illegal aliens impacting our ability and the
08:34capacity to live, to deliver goods? Not yet. Not yet. And I, and I say that because the whole
08:40industry is waiting for it to, you know, they've, you know, the crackdown on the, you know, again,
08:45English proficiency, these imported drivers, the illegal aliens, you know, when he signed it a month
08:49and a half ago, we haven't seen much activity, even at some of the border towns in Texas, you know,
08:55so this hitting the news, we're expecting the administration to really crank up the pressure
09:00on not only the illegal aliens, but these, but these drivers here on work visas.
09:08How have container volumes and freight rates fluctuated in response to the recent tariffs?
09:13They're very up and down. People, people are watching the news very closely. We're getting real,
09:18you know, I guess like spurts, bursts of volume pockets and, you know, be one week down,
09:23one week up. It is extremely inconsistent while we're on the, really the footsteps of peak season
09:29right now. People aren't that optimistic for the remainder of 2025. People are now talking about
09:37quarter two of 2026 for the recovery and the transportation industry. Okay. Dr. Bob Janetsky,
09:46Trump had a busy week meeting with Putin and the European leaders. Did the markets like it?
09:54Not really. The markets were down. It's always difficult to say exactly what was the modification
10:00or what was the main factor moving the markets. I think there were two things. One thing was that
10:08it appeared that peace was, could be in the offering because according to Secretary Besant in Alaska,
10:18the Russians agreed that there would be a security arrangement for Ukraine. And that seemed to be
10:24very promising. And then the Russians kind of put cold water on it, saying that the security
10:30arrangement would have to include Russia as a key one of the security people protecting the Ukraine.
10:37Well, that's like putting the fox in charge of the hens. That just isn't going to work. So long as
10:44that's their position, there really is no likelihood of peace. They would have to change that,
10:50reverse that, or whatever. So the market was a little disappointed with that. Also,
10:54Trump's pressure on the threat. The one thing financial markets do not want is political pressure
11:02to try and put more money into the system if the economic conditions don't justify it.
11:09So Trump has really put the Fed in a real bind here. They are now, I think, a little more reluctant
11:16than they would have been, even to cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point, because they don't
11:21want to look political. Whenever Trump makes this statement, you start to see the long-term rates
11:26kick up a little bit because of the fear that politics is going to dictate monetary policy.
11:33And what the politicians always want is more money to make things look better.
11:38Bob, in the recent past, as well as a couple of years ago, you were making complaints that
11:44Fed Chairman Powell seemed to be making mistakes.
11:48Oh, he's made huge mistakes. The whole inflation explosion, the highest in 40 years,
11:54followed the highest increase in money supply in 40 years. I mean, and this was all the Fed's fault.
12:00I don't know.
12:01How can you blame that on Trump?
12:05Pardon?
12:06How can you blame that on Trump?
12:08I don't blame the inflation on Trump. I blame the inflation totally on the Fed.
12:12Now, what did the Fed do after they had put all the money in?
12:14Well, the pressure to get inflation under control led them to take the money back
12:20out of it, or at least a lot of it. And that's what caused the hike in interest rates.
12:25Now, the question is, what do you need now in terms of stability? And the answer to that
12:31isn't clear, because the Fed doesn't allow markets to operate. They dictate what short-term
12:38interest rates are, and then they use their power so that the financial markets have to accommodate
12:45it. So we have a debate over whether short-term rates should be higher or lower. Trump believes
12:51they should be lower. He doesn't say how much, although the New York Times said he wants them
12:57down three percentage points, which is ridiculous. He never said that. But Trump thinks they should
13:02be down, and maybe they should be. And the easy way to do this and resolve this debate between Trump
13:08and the Fed is the Fed should just stop selling securities. Believe it or not, they're selling
13:14securities and continue to do that. And that puts upward pressure on interest rates. You should never
13:19do that. If you want more money in the system, you should buy securities to try and lower interest
13:25rates. Fed doesn't do neither. All they do is set a rate and say, that's our rate. And if they set the
13:31wrong rate, that's when they get into trouble. Trump thinks they have the wrong rate.
13:37Hasn't the Fed been not only monkeying around with interest rates, they've also been monkeying
13:44around with the money supply? It seems to me that if the Fed is trying to control inflation,
13:50they should either adjust interest rates or adjust the money supply, not both.
13:56And the clearest thing to do is adjust the money supply. And what they've been doing with the money
14:00supply, they've still tried to take some money out of the system because they're selling securities.
14:05I know this is complicated, but when you sell securities, you put downward pressure on prices,
14:12which puts upward pressure on interest rates. No way in the world can they justify, I don't think,
14:18selling securities at this point when everyone's talking about when and if and how much to lower
14:25interest rates. But that's the way the Fed operates. They set a rate and then they make them
14:30off financial markets adjust to that rate. So Trump certainly has some justification for
14:35complaining about Fed policy. But I think he has to be very careful. If the Fed were to drop rates
14:42solely because of his political pressure, my expectation would be that longer term rates would
14:48go up. Okay. All that being said, at the next Fed meeting in September, do you think Powell's going to
14:54lower rates? Yes, I think he's going to lower, I think the Fed will lower rates by a quarter of
14:59a percentage point. I think we're going to have some good inflation rates in the next week. I also
15:05believe, and this is probably the most important factor in terms of the Fed's decision, that we're
15:11going to have some very important economic data come out at the end of this coming week. And that data
15:16will show how strong the economy has been going into the third quarter. Now, so far, we've got
15:22mixed signals. We just got a signal this past week that says the economy in July was booming.
15:28However, a similar set of business surveys the month before that said exactly the opposite,
15:37that the economy is weak. So this creates a lot of confusion. The best data, the most comprehensive
15:43data will come out at the end of next week. And that should help to resolve what's happened to the
15:49economy. And we can talk about that next week. Okay, how are the housing markets looking, Bob?
15:54Terrible. The market for new homes, according to the home builders themselves, is at the lowest point
16:02that it's been in many years. So the builders have a high degree of inventory, the new home builders,
16:10that puts downward pressure on prices. And we've seen some of the housing prices either flatten out or
16:17come down a little bit. But the market itself is, I would not want to be a home builder, right?
16:23Okay. And on that interesting note, Bob, are you optimistic about our...
16:28I'm still optimistic, of course. I think we are in the process of major positive changes.
16:34They're shaking the economy up. It's very uncertain at the moment, whether the economy is even flat or
16:43going down or whether it's moving up. I think it's moving up. I think numbers will verify that.
16:49But by year end, I expect that it will become obvious to everyone that the economy is moving
16:55ahead at a pretty rapid pace. Don, are you optimistic?
16:59I remain optimistic like Bob in terms of... I like what I'm seeing. And I'm very much looking forward
17:08to the next couple of years. Isaac, are you optimistic?
17:12You know, between us and the home builders, I feel like we're all getting, you know, we're both
17:16getting our butts kicked. But yes, I'm very optimistic, Gary.
17:22Okay, guys, I too, I'm optimistic. I usually am optimistic, but I get to see great things happening.
17:29I do see us getting peace with Russia and Ukraine, and hopefully we can have it elsewhere.
17:38With that, have a great weekend. Be well, stay safe, and God bless America.
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